Will Extra Wild Card Restore Order?

Since major league baseball added the "wild card" to the post season mix in 1995, ten different "wild card" teams have advanced to the World Series in those seventeen seasons; five of them managed to capture the World Championship:  The '97 Florida Marlins, the 2002 California/LA/Anaheim Angels, the 2003 Marlins, the 2004 Boston Red Sox, and the 2011 St Louis Cardinals.

For the Cardinals, last year's World Championship was the eleventh in franchise history, and their first as a "wild card" entrant; likewise, the 2004 Red Sox not only won their first World Series as a "wild card" entrant, their stunning ALCS comeback against the New York Yankees - winning four straight games after trailing 3 games to none - propelled them to an easy four game sweep of the Cardinals in the World Series; ending the historic Curse of the Bambino in the process.

For the Marlins, the only time they've ever won the World Series came in those two "wild card" seasons; likewise, the Halos have only appeared in the Fall Classic that one "wild card" season, and with a little help from the Rally Monkey, captured their one and only championship since the franchise came into existence over 50 years ago (1961).

Clearly, "wild card" teams have had little trouble prevailing over higher seeded teams in advancing to the World Series; and thanks to the luck of the draw, four out of the five "wild card" World Series champions had the all-important home-field advantage when playing for all the marbles.  The only "wild card" team to overcome home-field "disadvantage" were those pesky 2003 Marlins, who handled the seemingly invincible Yankees in six games.  

Strangely enough, the Yankees have had their share of "wild card" trouble over the years; aside from that upset at the hands of those '03 Marlins, the Bronx Bombers have been bounced from the post season by the 2002 Angels, those '04 Red Sox, and the '06 "wild card" Detroit Tigers.  Of course, the Yankees were the original American League "wild card" edition back in '95, but they failed to get past an inspired Seattle Mariners team in a truly classic five game ALDS; capped off by Edgar Martinez' clutch two-run double which plated a jubilant Ken Griffey, Jr with the deciding run.

Many baseball purists despise the entire concept of allowing "wild card" teams into the post season to begin with.  It's "unfair", they contend, to give marginally talented teams an opportunity to eliminate superior teams in a short, five game series; or even a slightly longer, seven game series.  To make matters worse for these purists is the shocking reality that 50% of those lucky, talent-less "wild cards" have had the audacity to win the World Series (through 2011)!

For those wishing to have order restored in the world of post season baseball, there is good news:  Each league will add one more "wild card" into the mix.  Theoretically, ten teams will now enter the post season with a chance to win the World Series.  However, one of those "wild card" teams will have their hopes dashed in one fell swoop - a one game playoff between the "wild cards" quickly brings the total of World Series hopefuls back down to eight.  However, the surviving "wild cards" will be facing much longer odds in their attempt to continue advancing in the post season; after all, that one game victory over their fellow "wild cards" means a less favorable pitching rotation when the league division series begins.  It won't be impossible for "wild card" teams to prosper in the post season; but it will be extremely difficult.  It could be a long, long time before we see a repeat of what the St Louis Cardinals pulled off last year.

For those wishing to see the odds stacked back in favor of teams that win division titles, this expanded playoff picture should do the trick.  Only time will tell, but it seems as though the extra "wild cards" should restore order in major league baseball.

Prediction: No Postseason Play for Aging Yankees

Contrary to what most baseball experts believe, the New York Yankees are no longer the best team in the American League.  In fact, they're not even the best team in their division; maybe not even the second best team in the much-improved (except the Yankees) AL East.

On the surface, the Yankees appeared to have addressed their most glaring weakness - starting pitching - when they signed 37-year old free agent former-Dodger Hiroki Kuroda to a $10 million one-year deal and acquired (via trade) 22-year old rookie sensation Michael Pineda from the Mariners.  With last year's shaky pitching trio of AJ Burnett, Freddy Garcia and Phil Hughes providing little stability to the rotation, adding these two arms should eat up some innings in 2012.  That's the good news.

Here's the bad news:

Kuroda has spent his entire four-year major league career with the Dodgers, who play their home games in pitcher's haven Chavez Ravine.  Consequently, his career ERA of 3.45 is artificially low, which accounts for a so-so won loss record of 41-46.  He may give the Yanks some innings, but don't expect double digit wins as his ERA soars well over 4 runs per game in hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium.

Likewise, Pineda's 2011 ERA of 3.74 seems like a pretty good number for a rookie, but Safeco Field was his home field advantage.  Pitching away from home resulted in a less than desirable 4.40 ERA for the youngster.  Performing in the harsh spotlight of New York is never easy for even the most seasoned hurler; putting that kind of pressure on a kid with just one season of stress-free experience on his resume may be disastrous.

Last year, the Yankees relied heavily on the one-two pitching punch of CC Sabathia (19-8) and rookie Ivan Nova (16-4) to facilitate another trip to the post season, as AL East division champions. Their failure to get past the Detroit Tigers in the ALDS reveals what is perhaps the real challenge facing New York heading into the 2012 season:  The offensive core of this team has grown old.  Derek Jeter is heading into his age-37 season and Alex Rodriguez seems practically washed-up at the age of 36.  Of course, neither key player did much of anything in that five-game flop against Detroit.

Ironically, only the now-deposed Jorge Posada rose to the occasion in that series, hitting .429 (6 for 14), drawing four walks (OBP of .579), and slugging an impressive (especially for a 40-year old) .571.  By contrast, Jeter hit just .250 while striking out a team-high eight times, and A-Rod managed a paltry .111 BA with six whiffs, including the game and series-ending punch-out.

More bad news:

The Yankees dealt rising star Jesus Montero (.328 - .406 - .590 with four home runs in 18 games) to Seattle in exchange for Pineda.  Montero displayed great opposite-field power in his brief stint with the Yankees last season, and would've fit in nicely in the middle of that lineup in '12.  Certainly, there is some offensive fire-power returning in '12, led by the explosive Robinson Cano, who drove in 118 runs while scoring 104 in '11.  Curtis Granderson had a career year with 139 runs scored, 119 RBIs, 41 home runs, and an OPS+ of 138, but can he keep up that type of production in '12?  It's more likely he'll return to his normal career averages:  109 runs scored, 81 RBIs, 28 home runs, with an OPS+ of 117.  Those are good numbers, but nowhere near his 2011 production.

When all is said and done, the failure of the Yankees to reach the 2012 post season will be largely attributed to the continued demise of Alex Rodriguez.  Here's a look at A-Rod's steadily declining OPS+ since he led the American League in 2007:

'07 - 176
'08 - 150
'09 - 138
'10 - 123
'11 - 116

Look for that OPS+ to fall below the "average" level of 100 in 2012.  That's not the kind of production the Yankees are going to need from its aging superstar third baseman, if they expect to reach the post season, and possibly win another World Series.

Unfortunately, if you're a Yankees fan; that's the harsh reality.  Don't expect to see New York playing past the first 162 games in 2012.  Their glory years are at least temporarily on hiatus.


Larry Underwood is a baseball historian, die-hard Cardinals fan and author.  Here's his latest:  St Louis Cardinals IQ - The Ultimate Test of True Fandom (Volume 2)

http://www.amazon.com/St-Louis-Cardinals-IQ-Ultimate/dp/0983792259/ref=cm_pdp_books_itm_title_5