Are Today's MLB Relievers Overrated & Overpaid?

What was the best season ever recorded by a reliever in major league history?  Many baseball experts point to Dennis Eckersley's 1990 season when the Hall of Fame closer for the Oakland A's posted the lowest ERA ever for a reliever - 0.61 - while recording 48 saves in 73.1 innings of work.  His ERA+ of 603 is so far off the charts, it's ridiculous.  In fact, MLB Network recently aired a Prime Nine episode highlighting the Top Nine Reliever Seasons of All-Time, and this particular effort was ranked Number One.

Apparently, Prime Nine doesn't believe in all that saber-metrics stuff like the Baseball Reference.com Wins Over Replacement (WAR) measurement.  But we do, and Eckersley's 3.2 WAR is good for 9th-place on this list.  Strangely enough, Eric Gagne's 2003 season (MLB-record 55 straight saves) may be Number Two on Prime Nine, but is 8th over here.  Go figure.

Here's how Gagne and the others fared (Prime Nine's rank in parenthesis) - In ascending order by WAR - along with ERA, IP, CYA & MVP voting. 

2003 - Eric Gagne (2) -           1.20 ERA -  82.1 IP - 3.6 WAR (Won NL CYA)

1998 - Trevor Hoffman (8) -   1.48 ERA -  73.0 IP - 4.0 WAR (2nd NL CYA)

1984 - Willie Hernandez (9) - 1.92 ERA - 140.1 IP - 4.6 WAR (Won AL CYA & MVP)

1996 - Mariano Rivera (6) -    2.09 ERA - 107.2 IP - 4.8 WAR (3rd AL CYA)

1977 - Bruce Sutter (4) -         1.34 ERA - 107.1 IP - 6.5 WAR (6th NL CYA)

1986 - Mark Eichorn (7) -       1.72 ERA - 157.0 IP - 7.1 WAR (6th AL CYA)

1973 - John Hiller (3) -           1.44  ERA - 125.1 IP - 7.9 WAR (4th AL CYA)

1975 - Goose Gossage (5) -     1.84 ERA - 141.2 IP - 8.1 WAR (T-6th AL CYA)

Not that the baseball writers who vote on MVP and Cy Young Awards are dumb, but the guys at the top of this list had the lowest Wins Over Replacement calculations - yet the strongest support for postseason awards - whereas the guys like Eichorn, Hiller and Gossage - with exceptionally high WAR totals - hardly received any support at all.  Go figure.

Of course, back in the '70s and '80s, the concept of Wins Over Replacement had yet to be developed.  Voters typically gave the pitcher with the most wins the most CYA support - or in the case of relievers - an unusually high saves total.  Of course, those numbers can be misleading; when Gossage saved 28 games in '75 (he also won 9), he often worked more than just an inning or two to secure the win.  Many of the games he entered were in the middle innings with runners on base; his job was to put out the fire, then keep the other team at bay until the last out was recorded.  Now those were real saves; it also explains why he pitched about twice as many innings as Eckersley, Gagne and Hoffman; and why his WAR was more than two times higher than those other guys.  But what can be expected from part-time help; aside from multi-million dollar contracts?

It's nobody's fault; this is how the game is being managed today.  The art of securing saves has become a joint effort, for the most part, often employing the services of a 7th-inning specialist, then the set-up man, then the closer.  It's an efficient system, since having three fresh arms coming in to pitch the last thee innings or so to secure a win makes perfect sense.  Of course, Gossage used to perform all three functions by himself, thank you very much.  Doing it the old-fashioned Gossage way not only freed-up a couple of spots on the roster, it probably saved his team (Chicago White Sox) a little bit of money on payroll expense.  Of course, in 1975, that didn't amount to much. 

However, in 2013, just about everybody working in the bullpen will be making anywhere from a couple of million to $15 million per year.  These salaries are skyrocketing because most front offices in MLB have bought into the notion that relievers (part-time employees) are actually worth as much, if not more than a starting pitcher or position player (full-time employees). 

Saves are nice, of course.  However, when they come by rather cheaply, their significance is overrated; and for teams looking to trim the payroll, there appears to be no relief in sight - just plenty of relievers.

Chapman to Rotation Makes Sabermetric Sense

The Cincinnati Reds' plan to move lefty power-closer Aroldis Chapman and his 100 mph fastball into the starting rotation has drawn the ire of many baseball analysts, including MLB Network's Mitch "Wild Thing" Williams.  For that reason alone, the decision makes sense, since the inaccuracy of "Wild Thing's" assessments and predictions is nearly 100%.

Aside from that compelling bit of logic, Chapman's transition from the bullpen to the starting rotation would potentially give Cincinnati around 200 innings pitched*, as opposed to the 71.2 he logged in 2012.  Those extra innings - assuming they are "quality innings" - would translate into more wins for Cincinnati; a scary thought for the rest of the NL Central, considering the Reds already won 97 games in 2012.

*UPDATE:  Word from the Reds' front office is that Chapman will be under an innings limit when he goes into the rotation.  No word on what that innings limit will be, however.

The saber-metric evidence is compelling:  Good starting pitchers are more valuable than even the elite relief specialists; sometimes, significantly more valuable.  Observe the disparity in the ERA+ of Chapman over the top four starting pitchers in the 2012 NL Cy Young Award voting; then observe the disparity in the Wins Above Replacement (WAR) of the four starters over Chapman:

                  ERA+     WAR

Dickey -       140          5.6
Kershaw -    150          6.2
Gonzalez -   137          4.5
Cueto -        152          5.8

Chapman -   282          3.6

Chapman's ERA+ is roughly two times better than the four best starting pitchers in the National League; yet the limited use of his talents translates into fewer wins for his team than the other four.  As an aside, it appears that either Kershaw or Cueto might have a stronger case for the CYA than Dickey; however, somebody else can write about that.

Historically, even when relief specialists get the nod for either the Most Valuable Player Award and/or the Cy Young Award, they don't compare favorably to other players in the voting mix, from a purely saber-metric perspective.  Here's the evidence - the award winners who were strictly relief specialists - their WAR, their rank compared to other players receiving votes, and the player who actually had the highest WAR:

                                                           WAR     Rank     Highest    Player
1950 - NL MVP Jim Konstanty (PHI)      4.2      16th        7.8          Eddie Stanky (NYG)

1974 - NL CYA Mike Marshall (LAD)    2.9        5th        7.5         Phil Niekro (ATL)

1977 - AL CYA Sparky Lyle (NYY)        3.5       9th         8.0         Frank Tanana (CAA)

1979 - NL CYA Bruce Sutter (CHC)        4.9        3rd        7.0         Phil Niekro (ATL)

1981 - AL MVP Rollie Fingers (MIL)       4.1      10th        6.6         Rickey Henderson (OAK) &
                                                                                                            Dwight Evans (BOS)
1981 - AL CYA Rollie Fingers (MIL)       4.1        2nd       4.3          Steve McCatty (OAK)

1984 - AL MVP Willie Hernandez (DET)  4.6      14th        9.8         Cal Ripken (BAL)*
1984 - AL CYA Willie Hernandez (DET)  4.6        4th        7.6          Dave Stieb (TOR)

1987 - NL CYA Steve Bedrosian (PHI)      2.2        8th**    6.8         Bob Welch (LAD)

1992 - AL MVP Dennis Eckersley (OAK)  2.8       17th       8.4         Roger Clemens (BOS)
1992 - AL CYA Dennis Eckersley (OAK)  2.8         6th       8.4         Roger Clemens (BOS)

2003 - NL CYA Eric Gagne (LAD)            3.6        3rd        7.2          Mark Prior (CHC)

Notes:  *Despite having the highest WAR in the AL in 1984 (before WAR was even devised), Cal Ripken garnered the grand total of ONE POINT in the MVP vote!  **Steve Bedrosian (who saved 40 games) had the lowest WAR among all pitchers receiving NL CYA votes in 1987!  Surely, there were others not receiving votes that had a higher WAR than Bedrock's 2.2.

The impact on MLB history may not seem significant if the players with the highest WAR actually won these awards, but it surely would've gotten Phil Niekro in the HOF sooner had he won both the '74 and '79 NL Cy Young Awards!  Ironically, a knuckleball pitcher won the NL CYA this past season - RA Dickey - and it was the first time in MLB history that had happened; but it should've happened 38 years ago.

In the "borderline" case of Dwight Evans, perhaps winning the 1981 AL MVP Award would've put him over the top with the voters; he certainly belongs in Cooperstown.  Hopefully, as they become more saber-metrically informed, worthy players like Evans will finally get their just rewards.

Although some may disagree with the evidence, it seems apparent that a great starting pitcher is comparable to a great everyday player, in terms of the value they provide for their team.  The argument baseball analysts (like Mitch Williams) use when trying to dispel the notion that no pitcher should be considered for a Most Valuable Player Award - because they're not "everyday players" - is saber-metrically unfounded.  Some of the highest WAR totals over the years belong to starting pitchers; just not relief pitchers.

Another compelling piece of evidence:  The elite relief specialists obviously receive a lot of media attention for racking up a lot of saves; but it appears the "save" may be one of the most overrated statistics in MLB history.  That probably explains why a fairly mediocre relief pitcher like Steve Bedrosian - with those 40 saves in 1987 - was able to capture the NL Cy Young Award that year.  Strangely enough, the greatest closer ever - the New York Yankees' Mariano Rivera - never won a CYA, although he finished second once and third twice.

It's also interesting to note that for whatever reasons, no team has ever won a World Series with a closer that has recorded 50 or more saves; it's happened on nine different occasions, but has yet to help produce a World Championship for any team.  Go figure.

That gets us back to the Aroldis Chapman debate.  Quite simply, if he's able to still pitch effectively as a starter and give the Reds somewhere around 200 IP next season (assuming he stays healthy), he'll be helping them win more games, and that seems to be a gamble worth taking; a no-brainer, especially for a team with no left-handed starters currently in the rotation.

Taking it one step further, if Chapman even comes close to matching the level of performance he produced in 2012, the next NL Cy Young Award winner may well be a former flame-throwing, somersaulting, left-handed relief specialist currently employed by the Cincinnati Reds; who were smart enough to put him in a role that made saber-metric sense.


  

         

Cabrera-Bashing Tarnishes MVP Honor

If you regularly watch MLB Network's Clubhouse Confidential segment - hosted by the analytically brilliant Brian Kenny - chances are, you're gaining insight into the saber-metric side of baseball; and that's a good thing.  Unfortunately, Kenny and his legion of saber-metric fanatics may have gone too far with their relentless attack of American League Most Valuable Player, Miguel Cabrera - you know; the guy who won the AL Triple Crown (last accomplished by Carl Yastrzemski forty-five years ago) while leading his Detroit Tigers team into the postseason for the second straight year (the first time that's happened since 1934 and '35).

While Cabrera's historic season should have made him a lock to win the AL MVP Award (in fact, it did), the saber-metrics community felt otherwise; essentially drawing a line in the sand in support of LA Angels of Anaheim rookie sensation, Mike Trout.  Okay; Mike Trout is a better all-round player than Miguel Cabrera, but under the subjective nature of this award, not necessarily "more valuable".  Hence, the MVP Award went to Miggy and the debate intensified to epic proportions; saber-metric Cabrera-bashing became the latest trend, and leading the charge on MLB Network was the uncompromising Brian Kenny, who refused to believe anyone with a brain could possibly support the Detroit slugger.  Such a travesty.

What Kenny refuses to accept is the reality that voters (sportswriters) are usually impressed by big offensive numbers, especially when they help carry a team into the postseason.  That makes for good copy.  Sometimes, big offensive numbers plus a last place finish is even good enough to win (1987 - Andre Dawson - 49 HR/137 RBI).  Talk about a travesty.

In the aftermath of the Cabrera MVP Travesty of 2012, Brian Kenny has paraded various guest saber-metric analysts on his program - including the witty and smug Keith Olbermann - decrying the injustice and outright stupidity of it all.  One of Kenny's guest saber-geeks solemnly remarked how "sad" it was that the sportswriters did the unthinkable, thus depriving the 20-year old rookie of the award he so richly deserved.  Oh, the humanity.  This may be worse than the Hindenburg Disaster.

I'll tell you what's sad.  It's how the game's greatest pure hitter - Miguel Cabrera - finally wins his first MVP Award, and is being declared "undeserving" by the Brian Kennys of the world, who apparently don't like being on the losing side of their saber-metric arguments.  We're talking about an individual award to a ballplayer coming off a terrific season.  Let him bask in a little glory; not stick him under the microscope and comment about all his deficiencies.  To say there have been far less-deserving players over the years who were chosen "Most Valuable" in their league is an understatement.

In defense of the current crop of voting sportswriters, they've been doing a credible job of selecting players who are at or near the top of the Wins Above Replacement (WAR) saber-metric guidelines; at least in the current millennium.  How all this mumbo-jumbo is calculated is beyond me; however, when Albert Pujols won it on three separate occasions (2005, 2008 & 2009), he indeed had the NL's highest WAR each season.  In fact, he also had the highest WAR on a couple of occasions when he didn't win (2006 & 2010); and I don't recall anybody complaining about those two snubs.  The great Stan The Man Musial - who recently celebrated his 92nd birthday - only won three MVP Awards, but could have easily won another three or four.

Ted Williams was never very popular with a lot of the sportswriters, which partly explains why his incredible season in 1941 - featuring his iconic .406 BA - was trumped by Joe DiMaggio's equally iconic 56-game hitting streak.  Perhaps the most galling snub came when a Teddy Ballgame Triple Crown-season in 1947 was clipped by a rather mediocre Yankee Clipper-season, by a single point.

Many other all-time greats like Mays and Aaron have been consistently snubbed over the years by the likes of Maury Wills and Dick Groat, among others.  Generally speaking, if a player wins a batting championship on a pennant winner (Groat) or establishes some new MLB (stolen base) record (Wills), sportswriters eat that stuff up.  Every now and then, superior players on bad teams are selected (Ernie Banks in '58 and '59), but once their "quota" is fulfilled, they'd really have to go wild to get another one.  Banks had another great year in 1960, but winning three times in a row just wasn't happening.

A couple of my favorite MVP's - Kenny Boyer (1964) and Orlando Cepeda (1967) both led the NL in RBI's playing on pennant winning St Louis Cardinal teams.  Much to my surprise, there were several other players with higher WAR totals than the former Redbird heroes; especially surprising, since the vote for Cepeda was unanimous in 1967.  Go figure.

Meanwhile, as the outrage over the selection of Miggy over Trouty was starting to wane, our saber-metric hero on MLB Network decided it would be fun to review previous MVP selections on his Clubhouse Confidential program which he deemed "wrong".  I wonder if I was the only one surprised when he chose to nitpick the 2005 NL MVP Award which went to Albert Pujols of the 100-win NL Central champion-St Louis Cardinals, instead of Derrick Lee of the sub-.500 Chicago Cubs.  Both had very similar offensive numbers, but Lee's slugging percentage was about fifty points higher, plus he won the Gold Glove and Silver Slugger Award.  I suppose a clean sweep of the awards would've been nice for Lee, but for some reason those crazy sportswriters took the guy from the 100-win team instead.  "What were they thinking?" suggested the irrepressible Kenny.

I'll tell you what they were thinking, Brian.  They were thinking Pujols was the best player in the National League that season, who played a key role in the success of his team.  His "value" to his team is best measured by his NL-leading 8.2 WAR.  I'm surprised Brian Kenny failed to realize that before he decided to tell his viewers something that made no saber-metric sense whatsoever.  And that's a travesty.

No, the real travesty is subjecting the likable and extremely talented Miguel Cabrera to unfair scrutiny of an honor he deserved - American League Most Valuable Player - 2012.  The last time I checked, Andre Dawson got to keep his; along with George Bell, Don Baylor and Jeff Burroughs, for that matter.  None of those guys won the Triple Crown, by the way.

Dawson's '87 NL MVP Award a Travesty - Here's Proof

In 1987, Chicago Cubs right fielder Andre Dawson led the National League with 49 home runs and 137 RBIs.  He was the toast of Chi-Town.  Everybody loved him.  His loyal fans in the bleachers paid non-stop tribute to The Hawk with arms raised high, bowing at the waist in that classic "Wayne's World" We-Are-Not-Worthy Salute.  Remember that?

Meanwhile, despite the heroic efforts of the Mighty Dawson, the Cubs lost the vast majority of their games, finishing dead last in the NL East, far behind the division champion St Louis Cardinals.  That didn't matter to the sports writers voting for the most "worthy" candidate to receive the NL Most Valuable Player Award - it went to Dawson.

At the time, I was a little irked that Cardinals slugger Jack Clark - who had his best season ever despite having it shortened by a severe ankle injury in early September - didn't win it.  Clark's acrobatic teammate, Ozzie Smith, actually finished second in the voting that year, putting together his best season ever - both offensively (75 RBIs) and defensively - he was never better.

Back in '87, measuring player performance was done the old-fashioned - and sometimes misleading way - things like "batting average", "home runs" and "runs batted in" were the crucial barometers of performance.  Today, we realize "on base percentage" paints a better picture.  Therefore, batters who are adept at drawing "base on balls" are generally more helpful to their team than free-swingers who rarely walk.  It's so obvious, but rarely got much attention until guys like Billy Beane (Money Ball) started analyzing offensive production more effectively, about a decade ago.

So, let's take a closer look at the true numbers Dawson (AD)  and Clark (JC)  put up back in '87.  A category in bold type indicates a #1 NL ranking.  The conclusion:  Clark should have been named Most Valuable Player that year - just as I suspected!



          R        HR        RBI        BB        BA        OBP        SLG        OPS        OPS+        WAR
 JC    93        35         106        136       .286        .459        .597        1.055        176             6.5 

AD   90         49         137         32        .287        .328        .568         .896         130             2.7

There are several fascinating observations here.  Clark walked 104 more times than the free-swinging Dawson, accounting for the NL leading OBP - SLG - OPS - OPS+ - All true measurements of offensive production.  Dawson's OBP is extremely low for someone considered to be a league MVP!

Sure, it would have been one thing if Dawson was on the pennant winning team.  Instead, Clark played for the winner, and based on his true production, it's not surprising!

I rest my case.  Sorry Andre, we have to give the MVP Award to Jack the Ripper now.  Only because he deserved it all along. 

I knew it!