MLB Postseason Award Predictions

I'm going to go out on a limb and predict there will be no repeat winners in either league for any postseason awards.  That doesn't mean last year's winners won't have another great season; they will.

But voters like to reward the players who maybe came up a little bit short in previous years.  And there are some good candidates that could go all the way this year.

Let's review last year's results:

Clayton Kershaw - last year's NL Most Valuable Player and Cy Young Award winner - will still finish in the top ten in the MVP voting and will likely finish second in the CYA voting.

Mike Trout - last year's AL Most Valuable Player - will probably finish second this time around.

Corey Kluber - last year's AL Cy Young Award winner - will finish in the top ten this time around.

Buck Showalter - last year's AL Manager of the Year - will finish in the top five this time around.

Matt Williams - last year's NL Manager of the Year - will likewise finish in the top five this time.

...and the winners will be:

NL MVP goes to Giancarlo Stanton.  The Miami Marlin's right fielder was on an MVP pace in 2014 before a mid-September beaning abruptly ended his season.  Still, in 145 games played, Stanton (.288/.395/.555) hit 37 home runs with 105 RBI, while posting a 6.5 WAR.  He finished second to Kershaw (21-3 - 1.77 ERA), who ironically, had an injury-marred season as well (just 27 games started), but still posted an impressive 8.0 WAR (tops in the NL).  Stanton should have his best season ever in '15 - and that's scary for the rest of the league.

AL MVP goes to Michael Brantley.  Last season, the Cleveland Indians left fielder (.327/.385/.506) hit 20 home runs among his 200 hits, with 97 RBI.  He finished third in the voting last year, but his 7.0 WAR wasn't far behind Trout (7.9) who had another amazing season (.287/.377/.561) with 37 home runs and 111 RBI.  Playing for a team possibly heading for a division title, look for Brantley to lead the charge into the postseason.

NL Cy Young Award goes to Madison Bumgarner.  The San Francisco Giant's ace was nearly flawless in the postseason, and appears likely to continue that trend in the upcoming regular season.  This could be the year he becomes the best left-handed starter in either league.

AL Cy Young Award goes to Chris Sale.  The Chicago White Sox ace (12-4 - 2.17 ERA) had his season curtailed by injury (just 26 games started), but still finished third in the voting last year, posting a 6.6 WAR with a league-best 178 ERA+.  If he can avoid the DL in 2015, he should rise to the top.

NL Rookie of the Year Award goes to Kris Bryant.  The Chicago Cubs power-hitting third base prospect seems to have a perfect swing.  Although he'll start the year in the minor leagues for financial reasons, he'll be called up soon enough to finish with 30 home runs.  His biggest weakness seems to be fielding his position, where he may match that 30 HR total with 30 errors.  Still, the future looks bright for this guy; and postseason play may be a possibility for the Cubs in the next year or so.

AL Rookie of the Year Award goes to Rusney Castillo.  The Boston Red Sox outfield prospect seems to have the best chance of making a splash this season, while other higher-rated prospects from other organizations will likely spend most of the season in the minors.  Castillo could hit .300 with some power potential; maybe hit 20 home runs.

NL Manager of the Year Award goes to Bud Black, who should be the beneficiary of the newly revamped San Diego Padres roster.  This could very well be a postseason team, making Black a very strong candidate to win the award again (he won it in 2010).

AL Manager of the Year Award goes to Terry Francona, who won it in 2013 after guiding the Cinderella Cleveland Indians to a wild card slot.  This year could very well bring a division title to Cleveland, as they appear poised to supplant the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central.

Kershaw Got What He Deserved

Clayton Kershaw was not only the best pitcher in major league baseball in 2014 - he was also the top overall player - so the voters got it right when they chose him to receive the NL Cy Young Award and  the Most Valuable Player Award.

The notion that a starting pitcher shouldn't win a Most Valuable Player Award is preposterous.  A dominant starting pitcher is often every bit as valuable - or more valuable - as a top position player in any given year - like this year, for example.

The Wins Above Replacement leaders (WAR) in the National League in 2014:

Kershaw - 8.0
Lucroy - 6.7
Stanton & Rendon - 6.5
McCutchen, Wainwright & Cueto - 6.4

The voters also got it right in the American League - as Mike Trout (7.9 WAR) finally got the MVP Award he has actually deserved for the past three seasons - and Corey Kluber (7.4 WAR) won the CYA.

Kershaw is the first National League pitcher to receive both awards since Bob Gibson did it in 1968.  And yes, Gibson's WAR of 11.9 was tops in major league baseball that season - so he certainly got what he deserved.

Quite often, starting pitchers don't get what they deserve when it comes to the Most Valuable Player Award.  Since 1950, starting pitchers with the highest WAR have been snubbed fifty times - twenty-five (NL) & twenty-five (AL) - for MVP Awards.  Obviously, there's a strong bias against pitchers taking home Most Valuable Player Awards, since they already have "their own" (Cy Young) Award.

However, the results show that pitchers are often the top players in each league, year in and year out.  But they've gotten aced out with startling consistency, as we can see below (WAR):

1950 - Garver (8.2) loses AL MVP to Rizzuto (6.7)
1952 - Roberts (8.5) loses NL MVP to Sauer (5.7)
1953 - Roberts (9.8) loses NL MVP to Campanella (7.1)
1959 - Pascual (8.6) loses AL MVP to Fox (6.0)
1962 - Pascual (6.2) loses AL MVP to Mantle (5.9)
1964 - Chance (8.6) loses AL MVP to Robinson (8.1)
1965 - McDowell (7.9) loses AL MVP to Versailles (7.2)
1966 - Koufax & Marichal (both 9.8) lose NL MVP to Clemente (8.2)
1966 - Wilson (7.9) loses AL MVP to Robinson (7.7)
1969 - Gibson (11.3) loses NL MVP to McCovey (8.1)
1970 - Gibson (10.1) loses NL MVP to Bench (7.4)
1971 - Jenkins (11.9) loses NL MVP to Torre (5.9)
1971 - Wood (10.9) loses AL MVP to Blue (8.6)
1972 - Carlton (12.5) loses NL MVP to Bench (8.6)
1972 - Perry (11.2) loses AL MVP to Allen (8.6)
1973 - Seaver (11.0) loses NL MVP to Rose (8.2)
1973 - Blyleven (9.9) loses AL MVP to Jackson (7.8)
1974 - Perry (8.6) loses AL MVP to Burroughs (3.6)
1975 - Palmer (8.5) loses AL MVP to Lynn (7.4)
1976 - Fidrych (9.6) loses AL MVP to Munson (5.3)
1977 - Reuschel (9.6) loses NL MVP to Foster (8.4)
1978 - Niekro (10.4) loses NL MVP to Parker (7.0)
1978 - Guidry (9.6) loses AL MVP to Rice (7.5)
1980 - Carlton (10.2) loses NL MVP to Schmidt (8.8)
1983 - Denny (7.6) loses NL MVP to Murphy (7.1)
1985 - Gooden (13.2) loses NL MVP to McGee (8.1)
1986 - Scott (8.2) loses NL MVP to Schmidt (6.1)
1986 - Higuera (9.4) loses AL MVP to Clemens (8.9)
1987 - Clemens (9.4) loses AL MVP to Bell (5.0)
1988 - Hershiser (7.1) loses NL MVP to Gibson (6.5)
1989 - Saberhagen (9.7) loses AL MVP to Yount (5.8)
1990 - Clemens (10.6) loses AL MVP to Henderson (9.9)
1991 - Glavine (9.3) loses NL MVP to Pendleton (6.1)
1992 - Maddux (9.4) loses NL MVP to Bonds (9.0)
1992 - Clemens (8.9) loses AL MVP to Eckersley (2.9)
1993 - Rijo (10.2) loses NL MVP to Bonds (9.9)
1993 - Appier (9.3) loses AL MVP to Thomas (6.2)
1994 - Maddux (8.7) loses NL MVP to Bagwell (8.2)
1995 - Maddux (9.6) loses NL MVP to Larkin (5.9)
1995 - Johnson (8.7) loses AL MVP to Vaughn (4.3)
1997 - Clemens (12.1) loses AL MVP to Griffey (9.1)
1998 - Brown (9.1) loses NL MVP to Sosa (6.4)
1999 - Johnson (8.8) loses NL MVP to Jones (6.9)
1999 - Martinez (9.7) loses AL MVP to Rodriguez (6.4)
2000 - Martinez (11.7) loses AL MVP to Giambi (7.7)
2006 - Santana (7.5) loses AL MVP to Morneau (4.3)
2009 - Greinke (10.4) loses AL MVP to Mauer (7.8)
2010 - Halladay (8.1) loses NL MVP to Votto (6.9)
2011 - Lee (9.2) loses NL MVP to Braun (7.8)

Of course, some of these "snubs" were of the slimmest of margins, while others were overwhelming.  What's really appalling is when a pitcher leads his league in WAR, then not only gets snubbed for the MVP Award, he also gets snubbed for the Cy Young Award.  Those victims:

Lee, Brown, Appier, Rijo, Higuera, Niekro (twice), Reuschel, Fidrych, Perry, Blyleven, Wood, Jenkins, Gibson, Wilson, Marichal, McDowell, and Pascual (twice).

It's interesting to note, when Kershaw won his first Cy Young Award in 2011, Cliff Lee was actually a bit more deserving.  However, in 2014, there was nobody more deserving than the Dodgers' ace - not only for the Cy Young Award, but the Most Valuable Player Award, as well.

Bob Gibson - A Saber-metric Revelation You Probably Didn't Know

Practically everyone knows St Louis Cardinals' pitcher Bob Gibson had one of the most dominant seasons ever - in 1968 - featuring that legendary 1.12 ERA which made him a unanimous pick for the National League Cy Young Award.  He was not only the best pitcher in the game that season - he was also the best all-around player in the game that season - not only winning the league's Most Valuable Player Award, he also had the highest WAR in the game:  11.9.

The next highest WAR did not belong to AL CYA & MVP Award winner, Denny McClain - 7.3.  In fact, McClain didn't even have the highest WAR among AL pitchers.  Luis Tiant came in at 7.8.  Among position players, Carl Yastrzemski was tops in the AL:  10.5 - so yeah, he should have won back-to-back MVP Awards.  Brooks Robinson came in second among position players:  8.4.

If this makes no sense to you, or you don't adhere to any of this saber-metric mumbo-jumbo, you may not agree with the revelation I happened to discover, just the other day:

Gibson was not only the best all-around player in major league baseball in 1968 - he was also the best all-around player in '69 and '70, as well.

The fact that Gibson didn't win either the NL Cy Young Award, nor the league's Most Valuable Player Award in '69 means nothing.  Tom Seaver was a natural choice in '69 for the CYA - pitching for the team that made the postseason for the very first time, and of course, he had a wonderful record (25-7 - 2.21 ERA).

Likewise, Willie McCovey was a natural choice for the NL MVP Award in '69.  He led the league in home runs (45), RBI (126) and slugging percentage (.656), and his team - the San Francisco Giants - finished a close second to the Atlanta Braves in the newly-formed NL West division.

As we have seen over the years, voting for Most Valuable Player Awards is generally weighted heavily in favor of players putting together "big numbers" on teams that either reach the postseason, or teams that played well above nearly everyone's (so-called baseball experts) expectations.  Generally, position players tend to get more support than pitchers, for two reasons:  (1) Pitchers have their "own" award, so let them have that instead of this, and (2) pitchers generally only pitch once every five days, so there's no way they can help their team win more than guys who play every day.  Which of course, is total nonsense.

In 1969, McCovey had an MVP-caliber 8.1 WAR - Seaver had a CYA-caliber 7.2 WAR.  However, Gibson's was 11.3 - surprisingly, nearly as high as the 11.9 he posted the previous season - when he won both awards.

In 1970, when Gibson won his second NL CYA, he still had the highest WAR in major league baseball:  10.1 - although strictly as a pitcher it was 8.9.  The reason his overall WAR was higher is quite simple - Gibson had a great year as a hitter (.303/.347/.404) with two home runs and 19 RBI.  Also, defensive metrics come into play - getting a boost from the fact that he was a Gold Glove Award winning pitcher, year in and year out.

Those three years - 1968 - '69 - '70 - were Gibson's saber-metric peak, when he was the best all-around player in the game.  Now you know.