Until last season, the Cardinals had never reached the postseason four consecutive years. As the 2015 season is about to unfold, the Cardinals appear to have the talent to extend their postseason streak to five straight years.
Final Standings for NL Central in 2015 should look like this:
St Louis 93-69
Pittsburgh 88-74
Cincinnati 83-79
Chicago 82-80
Milwaukee 74-88
Pittsburgh will put a very good lineup on the field, but their starting rotation is suspect.
Cincinnati will be vastly improved, offensively, but their starting rotation is even more suspect.
Chicago should finish over .500 - not quite the World Series champions their delusional fan base is expecting, but they're improving.
Milwaukee spent most of last season in first place before collapsing in September. Their collapse should occur by May this time around.
Showing posts with label St Louis Cardinals. Show all posts
Showing posts with label St Louis Cardinals. Show all posts
Wednesday, April 1, 2015
Monday, March 30, 2015
Meanwhile, in the American League
2015 is going to be a season of great changes - at least in the American League. The three teams that won division titles last year will be scrambling just to grab a wild card berth this year.
Toronto 89-73 Cleveland 88-74 Seattle 90-72
Baltimore 85-77 Detroit 87-75 LA of A 87-75 Boston 83-79 Chicago 82-80 Oakland 83-79
In the meantime, three teams that haven't won a division title in a long, long time will finally break through in 2015 - and one of those division winners will actually make it to the World Series for the first time in franchise history (although their wait will have been considerably shorter than some team we know in the NL Central that hasn't played in the Fall Classic since the Truman Administration and last won it all three years before Ronald Reagan was born).
Here's the way it's going to play out in the Junior Circuit:
AL EAST AL CENTRAL AL WEST
Toronto 89-73 Cleveland 88-74 Seattle 90-72
Baltimore 85-77 Detroit 87-75 LA of A 87-75 Boston 83-79 Chicago 82-80 Oakland 83-79
Tampa Bay 75-87 Kansas City 81-81 Houston 80-82
New York 71-91 Minnesota 66-96 Texas 71-91
Advancing to the World Series for the first time in franchise history will be the Seattle Mariners, who will of course, be playing the St Louis Cardinals (since it's an odd-numbered year). It's interesting to note that in 1982, the Cardinals defeated the Milwaukee Brewers - who were making their first trip to the World Series - in a classic seven game showdown.
Of course, the Cardinals lost a seven-game series to the Kansas City Royals in 1985, then lost another seven-game series to the Minnesota Twins in 1987. Both teams had never won a World Series before, although both had played in a World Series on one other occasion.
What does all this mean? Simple: The Cardinals will beat the Mariners in a classic seven-game series. In the future, if Seattle makes a return trip to the World Series, and they happen to play St Louis again, they'll probably win it that time - in seven games, of course.
Friday, March 27, 2015
10 Reasons Why Cardinals Will Be MUCH Better Than Last Year
Last year, the Cardinals managed to win 90 regular season games despite having an "off year" offensively. That's putting it mildly. Based on an OPS+ of 93, it was their second worst offensive season of the millennium. For the record, only the 2007 Cardinals (92 OPS+) were worse, offensively.
Last year, they managed to win 90 games despite outscoring their opponents by only 16 runs (619 to 603). Helping their cause was a major league-leading 23 shutouts from the pitching staff, which easily offset the 12 times the offense was blanked by the opposition. Also, despite the rather shaky performance of closer Trevor Rosenthal - who allowed 39% of first batters to reach base - he still managed to save 45 games - while the rest of the bullpen secured another ten. Those 55 saves also happened to be the most by any major league team. In other words, the Cardinals were usually engaged in low-scoring games that were decided by two or fewer runs.
Another thing that helped St Louis win a few extra games was a vastly improved defense. Essentially, the Redbirds went from being the second-worst defensive team in the league in 2013 (only Philadelphia was worse) to becoming the second-best defensive team in 2014 (only Cincinnati was better). The addition of right fielder Jason Heyward (from Atlanta) - one of the best defensive players in all of baseball - should put the Cardinals on top of the defensive metric charts by a wide margin in 2015.
Heyward's addition to the roster is just one of the ten major reasons the Cardinals will be vastly improved over last season. Actually, he's probably the number one reason, since he's upgrading a position - right field - that was among the worst in baseball last year for St Louis. The other nine reasons for the team's vast improvement over last year is based on the assumption that certain players (Adam Wainwright, Lance Lynn & Matt Holliday for example) will perform similarly this season as last.
Without further adieu, here are ten players who will add significantly greater value to the Cardinals in 2015 than the previous season:
* Yadier Molina suffered through an injury-marred season in '14 - playing in just 110 games, with diminished offensive production (.282/.333/.386). Yadi turns 33 in July, so a gradual decline in his skills is inevitable; however, he should be relatively healthy this season, so appearing in 140 games is likely, and a more potent offensive attack (.300/.360/.420) should be in the Cards as well.
* Kolten Wong is poised for a break-out season based on how well he finished last year - especially with his stellar performance in the postseason. Wong struggled early in the season, then after a brief stint in the minors, returned with renewed confidence and impressive power numbers. In 113 games Kolten finished with a .249/.292/.388 slash line. The other part of the second base dilemma last year was the woeful final season free agent Mark Ellis compiled. In 73 games, he hit .180 with absolutely no power. With Wong taking over on a full-time basis at second base, he should be able to play 150 games with this type of offensive production: .275/.330/.450. He'll probably hit 15 home runs, steal 30 bags and possibly win a Gold Glove Award. Yes, second base is in good hands again.
* Jaime Garcia has had a host of shoulder problems that has limited his work to just 99 innings over the course of the last two seasons. He appears to be healthy again and should be able to work 150 quality innings. His work this spring has been surprisingly effective, exceeding any reasonable expectation so far. His contribution to the Cardinal's success could be huge - possibly NL Comeback Player of the Year material.
* Kevin Siegrist had a variety of physical ailments last season that caused his ERA to skyrocket from 0.45 in '13 to 6.82 last year. He appears to be healthy again, with renewed confidence and effectiveness (5 IP - 0 ERA with 6 SO and just 1 BB so far this spring). Look for numbers much closer to 2013.
* Michael Wacha appears to be healthy again and ready to dominate batters with his blazing fastball and devastating change up - like he did late in 2013. He'll be the number three starter - and would be a number one on most teams. That's scary.
* Jordan Walden, who came over from the Braves in the Heyward deal, is another power arm in the bullpen (254 strikeouts in 211.2 career innings pitched), capable of closing out games whenever needed. Having another viable option will undoubtedly take some of the pressure off Trevor Rosenthal, who probably needed a break from time to time last season, but rarely got one.
* Speaking of Trevor Rosenthal...expect him to dominate hitters they way he did late in 2013, when he was almost flawless. In 2014, Rosenthal's walk rate was over five batters per nine innings. That's going to be cut in half.
* Marco Gonzalez has been impressive so far this spring (3-0 - 0.71 ERA), giving manager Mike Matheny another viable (left-handed) candidate for the starting rotation.
* John Lackey should be able to log close to 200 innings of solid starting pitching - another key to helping the bullpen stay fresh through the long season - and deep into the postseason.
* Jason Heyward - previously mentioned - but his impact on the Cardinals' success will be the greatest, since their biggest weakness from 2014 - right field - is now among their biggest strengths. Heyward is a viable MVP candidate - particularly if he hits for the type of power he's shown in the past (27 home runs a couple of years ago). Even if he just matches his career averages (.262/.351/.429), with his exceptional defensive play, he's an elite player. For the Cardinals front office, the decision to sign him to a long-term contract (he'll be a free agent after this season) should be a top priority - and nailed down sooner than later.
I don't think there's any doubt the Redbirds will be a much better team this year than last. In fact, the 2015 edition of the St Louis Cardinals may surpass the overall performance of the 2004 and 2005 teams.
Here's a ranking of each season of the millennium, combing the team OPS+ and ERA+ (defensive metrics not included):
Rank Year OPS+ ERA+ Total Postseason?
1(Tie) 2004 107 113 220 Y
1(Tie) 2005 98 122 220 Y (Best Pitching of the Millennium)
3 2013 102 110 212 Y
4(Tie) 2011 112 99 211 Y (Best Offense of the Millennium)
4(Tie) 2002 102 109 211 Y
6(Tie) 2000 103 107 210 Y
6(Tie) 2001 100 110 210 Y
6(Tie) 2009 98 112 210 Y
6(Tie) 2012 107 103 210 Y
10 2010 100 109 209 N
11 2008 107 101 208 N
12 2003 111 90 201 N (Worst Pitching of the Millennium)
13 2014 93 105 198 Y
14 2006 97 98 195 Y
15 2007 92 95 187 N (Worst Offense of the Millennium)
Obviously, these numbers provide a good measurement of the team's regular season performance - but once the postseason begins, anything can happen (example: 2006).
What can we expect in 2015? Here's my guesstimate: OPS+ 102 - ERA+ 119 (Total 221). By the time we factor in the expected superior defensive metrics, this could shape up to be the best Cardinal team of the millennium. No kidding.
Odds makers currently give the Cards a 12 to 1 shot to win the World Series. I think that makes them highly underrated...
Last year, they managed to win 90 games despite outscoring their opponents by only 16 runs (619 to 603). Helping their cause was a major league-leading 23 shutouts from the pitching staff, which easily offset the 12 times the offense was blanked by the opposition. Also, despite the rather shaky performance of closer Trevor Rosenthal - who allowed 39% of first batters to reach base - he still managed to save 45 games - while the rest of the bullpen secured another ten. Those 55 saves also happened to be the most by any major league team. In other words, the Cardinals were usually engaged in low-scoring games that were decided by two or fewer runs.
Another thing that helped St Louis win a few extra games was a vastly improved defense. Essentially, the Redbirds went from being the second-worst defensive team in the league in 2013 (only Philadelphia was worse) to becoming the second-best defensive team in 2014 (only Cincinnati was better). The addition of right fielder Jason Heyward (from Atlanta) - one of the best defensive players in all of baseball - should put the Cardinals on top of the defensive metric charts by a wide margin in 2015.
Heyward's addition to the roster is just one of the ten major reasons the Cardinals will be vastly improved over last season. Actually, he's probably the number one reason, since he's upgrading a position - right field - that was among the worst in baseball last year for St Louis. The other nine reasons for the team's vast improvement over last year is based on the assumption that certain players (Adam Wainwright, Lance Lynn & Matt Holliday for example) will perform similarly this season as last.
Without further adieu, here are ten players who will add significantly greater value to the Cardinals in 2015 than the previous season:
* Yadier Molina suffered through an injury-marred season in '14 - playing in just 110 games, with diminished offensive production (.282/.333/.386). Yadi turns 33 in July, so a gradual decline in his skills is inevitable; however, he should be relatively healthy this season, so appearing in 140 games is likely, and a more potent offensive attack (.300/.360/.420) should be in the Cards as well.
* Kolten Wong is poised for a break-out season based on how well he finished last year - especially with his stellar performance in the postseason. Wong struggled early in the season, then after a brief stint in the minors, returned with renewed confidence and impressive power numbers. In 113 games Kolten finished with a .249/.292/.388 slash line. The other part of the second base dilemma last year was the woeful final season free agent Mark Ellis compiled. In 73 games, he hit .180 with absolutely no power. With Wong taking over on a full-time basis at second base, he should be able to play 150 games with this type of offensive production: .275/.330/.450. He'll probably hit 15 home runs, steal 30 bags and possibly win a Gold Glove Award. Yes, second base is in good hands again.
* Jaime Garcia has had a host of shoulder problems that has limited his work to just 99 innings over the course of the last two seasons. He appears to be healthy again and should be able to work 150 quality innings. His work this spring has been surprisingly effective, exceeding any reasonable expectation so far. His contribution to the Cardinal's success could be huge - possibly NL Comeback Player of the Year material.
* Kevin Siegrist had a variety of physical ailments last season that caused his ERA to skyrocket from 0.45 in '13 to 6.82 last year. He appears to be healthy again, with renewed confidence and effectiveness (5 IP - 0 ERA with 6 SO and just 1 BB so far this spring). Look for numbers much closer to 2013.
* Michael Wacha appears to be healthy again and ready to dominate batters with his blazing fastball and devastating change up - like he did late in 2013. He'll be the number three starter - and would be a number one on most teams. That's scary.
* Jordan Walden, who came over from the Braves in the Heyward deal, is another power arm in the bullpen (254 strikeouts in 211.2 career innings pitched), capable of closing out games whenever needed. Having another viable option will undoubtedly take some of the pressure off Trevor Rosenthal, who probably needed a break from time to time last season, but rarely got one.
* Speaking of Trevor Rosenthal...expect him to dominate hitters they way he did late in 2013, when he was almost flawless. In 2014, Rosenthal's walk rate was over five batters per nine innings. That's going to be cut in half.
* Marco Gonzalez has been impressive so far this spring (3-0 - 0.71 ERA), giving manager Mike Matheny another viable (left-handed) candidate for the starting rotation.
* John Lackey should be able to log close to 200 innings of solid starting pitching - another key to helping the bullpen stay fresh through the long season - and deep into the postseason.
* Jason Heyward - previously mentioned - but his impact on the Cardinals' success will be the greatest, since their biggest weakness from 2014 - right field - is now among their biggest strengths. Heyward is a viable MVP candidate - particularly if he hits for the type of power he's shown in the past (27 home runs a couple of years ago). Even if he just matches his career averages (.262/.351/.429), with his exceptional defensive play, he's an elite player. For the Cardinals front office, the decision to sign him to a long-term contract (he'll be a free agent after this season) should be a top priority - and nailed down sooner than later.
I don't think there's any doubt the Redbirds will be a much better team this year than last. In fact, the 2015 edition of the St Louis Cardinals may surpass the overall performance of the 2004 and 2005 teams.
Here's a ranking of each season of the millennium, combing the team OPS+ and ERA+ (defensive metrics not included):
Rank Year OPS+ ERA+ Total Postseason?
1(Tie) 2004 107 113 220 Y
1(Tie) 2005 98 122 220 Y (Best Pitching of the Millennium)
3 2013 102 110 212 Y
4(Tie) 2011 112 99 211 Y (Best Offense of the Millennium)
4(Tie) 2002 102 109 211 Y
6(Tie) 2000 103 107 210 Y
6(Tie) 2001 100 110 210 Y
6(Tie) 2009 98 112 210 Y
6(Tie) 2012 107 103 210 Y
10 2010 100 109 209 N
11 2008 107 101 208 N
12 2003 111 90 201 N (Worst Pitching of the Millennium)
13 2014 93 105 198 Y
14 2006 97 98 195 Y
15 2007 92 95 187 N (Worst Offense of the Millennium)
Obviously, these numbers provide a good measurement of the team's regular season performance - but once the postseason begins, anything can happen (example: 2006).
What can we expect in 2015? Here's my guesstimate: OPS+ 102 - ERA+ 119 (Total 221). By the time we factor in the expected superior defensive metrics, this could shape up to be the best Cardinal team of the millennium. No kidding.
Odds makers currently give the Cards a 12 to 1 shot to win the World Series. I think that makes them highly underrated...
Wednesday, February 11, 2015
Ranking NL Central Starting Rotations
Now that free agent pitcher James Shields is officially off the market (signing a four-year deal with the San Diego Padres), we now have a clearer picture of how the starting rotations of the five NL Central teams will be staffed - at least for now. Once the season begins, there may be some changes - particularly at the lower end of the rotations, where the competition for the fifth spot usually has a good number of candidates - from aging veterans to unproven rookies.
For rating purposes, we'll compare each team's Number One Starter, their Number Twos, and so on and so forth. Included will be a brief picture of last season's performance and any significant issues that may be pertinent, such as the relative risk for arm/shoulder/elbow trouble.
Here we go:
NUMBER ONE
1 - Cueto (CIN) 20-9 - 2.25 ERA - 243.2 IP - 160 ERA+ (Age 28) - After an injury-plagued 2013 season, he was the second-best pitcher in the NL last season.
2 - Wainwright (STL) 20-9 - 2.38 ERA - 227.0 IP - 154 ERA+ (Age 32) - Had a "dead arm" phase in the second half - Had minor off season elbow surgery which is a concern heading into the new season. When healthy, he's among the top 4 or 5 pitchers in MLB.
3 - Lester (CHI) 16-11 - 2.46 ERA - 219.2 IP - 155 ERA + (Age 30) - Had his finest season in 2014, but pitching for Oakland, inexplicably failed to hold the Royals at bay in the AL Wild Card game. Not a good way to end a season.
4 - Liriano (PIT) 7-10 - 3.38 ERA - 162.1 IP - 117 ERA+ (Age 30) - Health issues last year - could be a problem again in 2015.
5 - Garza (MIL) 8-8 - 3.64 ERA - 163.1 IP - 104 ERA+ (Age 30) - Durability and a volatile demeanor could be troublesome in 2015.
NUMBER TWO
1 - Lynn (STL) 15-10 - 2.74 ERA - 203.2 IP - 134 ERA+ (Age 27) - Had his finest season, by far, in 2014, although pitching with low run support cost him some wins - Should be just as good - if not better - in 2015.
2 - Arrieta (CHI) 10-5 - 2.53 ERA - 156.2 IP - 151 ERA+ (Age 28) - Pitched extremely well last season with a relatively light workload - Will need to post similar results while eclipsing 200 IP to give team a reasonable shot at postseason play.
3 - Peralta (MIL) 17-11 - 3.53 ERA - 198.2 IP - 107 ERA+ (Age 25) - Thanks to getting a lot of run support, actually won more games than any NL Central pitcher not named Cueto or Wainwright in 2014 - Will he be so fortunate in 2015?
4 - Bailey (CIN) 9-5 - 3.71 ERA - 145.2 IP - 97 ERA+ (Age 28) - Will need to bounce back from a mediocre 2014 - Lower the ERA, increase the workload - Otherwise, it could be another painful season for the Reds.
5 - Cole (PIT) 11-5 - 3.65 ERA - 138.0 IP - 98 ERA+ (Age 23) - Has potential to have breakout season in 2015, but needs to work more than 200 IP to give Pirates a reasonable shot at a division title.
NUMBER THREE
1 - Wacha (STL) 5-6 - 3.20 ERA - 107.0 IP - 115 ERA+ (Age 22) - If he's fully recovered from his shoulder problems, he should be able to dominate opposing lineups like he did late in the 2013 season (and postseason) - His workload will probably be limited by a cautious brain trust - still, 150+ IP would be a welcome asset to the pitching staff.
2 - Lohse (MIL) 13-9 - 3.54 ERA - 198.1 IP - 107 ERA+ (Age 35) - Not overpowering, but reliable - Age may start becoming a bit of a factor, especially if his not-so-fast-fastball loses some velocity in 2015.
3 - Leake (CIN) 11-13 - 3.70 ERA - 214.1 IP - 97 ERA+ (Age 26) - A steady workhorse - Should give Reds another 200+ IP in 2015.
4 - Hammel (CHI) 8-5 - 2.58 ERA - 108.2 IP - 128 ERA+ (Age 31) - Pitched well with a limited workload last season - Needs to double the output in 2015 to give Cubs any postseason hopes.
5 - Burnett (PIT) 8-18 - 4.59 ERA - 213.2 IP - 81 ERA+ (Age 37) - Pitching for a miserable Phillies team last season - Still durable after all those years, but age-related decline likely to continue - Probably should retire - Would be no surprise to see him released by the All Star break.
NUMBER FOUR
1 - Worley (PIT) 8-4 - 2.85 ERA - 110.2 IP - 125 ERA+ (Age 26) - Good numbers in limited action last season - It may not take long for this guy to supplant Burnett in the number three slot in the rotation.
2 - Fiers (MIL) 6-5 - 2.13 ERA - 71.2 IP - 178 ERA+ (Age 29) - Had the highest ERA+ in the division last season - but needs to at least double his innings pitched in 2015 to give rotation the necessary boost to stay in the race.
3 - Lackey (STL) 3-3 - 4.30 ERA - 60.2 IP - 86 ERA+ (Age 35) - Acquired from Boston prior to the trade deadline last season - Struggled in limited action - Whether or not he can bounce back in 2015 remains to be seen.
4 - Wood (CHI) 8-13 - 5.03 ERA - 173.2 IP - 76 ERA+ (Age 27) - Durable, but ineffective last season - He may not be able to improve in 2015 - The Cubs will be in trouble if he doesn't pitch more effectively this season.
5 - Cingrani (CIN) 2-8 - 4.55 ERA - 63.1 IP - 79 ERA+ (Age 24) - After showing flashes of brilliance when first called up in 2013, regressed significantly last season - Without vast improvement this season, the Reds will have serious issues.
NUMBER FIVE
1 - Hendricks (CHI) 7-2 - 2.46 ERA - 80.1 IP - 155 ERA+ (Age 24) - Encouraging results in limited exposure last season - If he can come close to duplicating this performance with 160+ IP, Cubs should easily escape the cellar.
2 - Locke (PIT) 7-6 - 3.91 ERA - 131.1 IP - 91 ERA+ (Age 26) - Assuming Burnett flops for the Pirates in 2015, the team will desperately need this guy to pitch better than last year - and work closer to 200 IP.
3 - Martinez (STL) 2-4 - 4.03 ERA - 89.1 IP - 91 ERA+ (Age 22) - Has the raw talent to develop into a top end of the rotation starter - If he does, Cards could run away with division title.
4 - Nelson (MIL) 2-9 - 4.83 ERA - 69.1 IP - 77 ERA+ (Age 25) - Expected to improve this season - Nowhere to go but up.
5 - Desclafani (CIN) 2-2 - 6.27 ERA - 33.0 IP - 61 ERA+ (Age 24) - Posted a decent 3.78 ERA in the minors last season - Significant improvement is critical in the fifth spot in the rotation if the Reds hope to have any chance at all in the division race.
OVERALL ROTATION RANKINGS
1 - St Louis Cardinals - The combination of Wainwright, Lynn and Wacha should be dominant in 2015.
2 - Chicago Cubs - The addition of Lester and the continued development of their younger talent brings some measure of credibility to a franchise desperate to win.
3 - Milwaukee Brewers - Lacking a true "ace", but still capable of keeping their team in most games.
4 - Pittsburgh Pirates - A shaky rotation with the potential to be a total disaster.
5 - Cincinnati Reds - After Cueto, a lot of question marks.
For rating purposes, we'll compare each team's Number One Starter, their Number Twos, and so on and so forth. Included will be a brief picture of last season's performance and any significant issues that may be pertinent, such as the relative risk for arm/shoulder/elbow trouble.
Here we go:
NUMBER ONE
1 - Cueto (CIN) 20-9 - 2.25 ERA - 243.2 IP - 160 ERA+ (Age 28) - After an injury-plagued 2013 season, he was the second-best pitcher in the NL last season.
2 - Wainwright (STL) 20-9 - 2.38 ERA - 227.0 IP - 154 ERA+ (Age 32) - Had a "dead arm" phase in the second half - Had minor off season elbow surgery which is a concern heading into the new season. When healthy, he's among the top 4 or 5 pitchers in MLB.
3 - Lester (CHI) 16-11 - 2.46 ERA - 219.2 IP - 155 ERA + (Age 30) - Had his finest season in 2014, but pitching for Oakland, inexplicably failed to hold the Royals at bay in the AL Wild Card game. Not a good way to end a season.
4 - Liriano (PIT) 7-10 - 3.38 ERA - 162.1 IP - 117 ERA+ (Age 30) - Health issues last year - could be a problem again in 2015.
5 - Garza (MIL) 8-8 - 3.64 ERA - 163.1 IP - 104 ERA+ (Age 30) - Durability and a volatile demeanor could be troublesome in 2015.
NUMBER TWO
1 - Lynn (STL) 15-10 - 2.74 ERA - 203.2 IP - 134 ERA+ (Age 27) - Had his finest season, by far, in 2014, although pitching with low run support cost him some wins - Should be just as good - if not better - in 2015.
2 - Arrieta (CHI) 10-5 - 2.53 ERA - 156.2 IP - 151 ERA+ (Age 28) - Pitched extremely well last season with a relatively light workload - Will need to post similar results while eclipsing 200 IP to give team a reasonable shot at postseason play.
3 - Peralta (MIL) 17-11 - 3.53 ERA - 198.2 IP - 107 ERA+ (Age 25) - Thanks to getting a lot of run support, actually won more games than any NL Central pitcher not named Cueto or Wainwright in 2014 - Will he be so fortunate in 2015?
4 - Bailey (CIN) 9-5 - 3.71 ERA - 145.2 IP - 97 ERA+ (Age 28) - Will need to bounce back from a mediocre 2014 - Lower the ERA, increase the workload - Otherwise, it could be another painful season for the Reds.
5 - Cole (PIT) 11-5 - 3.65 ERA - 138.0 IP - 98 ERA+ (Age 23) - Has potential to have breakout season in 2015, but needs to work more than 200 IP to give Pirates a reasonable shot at a division title.
NUMBER THREE
1 - Wacha (STL) 5-6 - 3.20 ERA - 107.0 IP - 115 ERA+ (Age 22) - If he's fully recovered from his shoulder problems, he should be able to dominate opposing lineups like he did late in the 2013 season (and postseason) - His workload will probably be limited by a cautious brain trust - still, 150+ IP would be a welcome asset to the pitching staff.
2 - Lohse (MIL) 13-9 - 3.54 ERA - 198.1 IP - 107 ERA+ (Age 35) - Not overpowering, but reliable - Age may start becoming a bit of a factor, especially if his not-so-fast-fastball loses some velocity in 2015.
3 - Leake (CIN) 11-13 - 3.70 ERA - 214.1 IP - 97 ERA+ (Age 26) - A steady workhorse - Should give Reds another 200+ IP in 2015.
4 - Hammel (CHI) 8-5 - 2.58 ERA - 108.2 IP - 128 ERA+ (Age 31) - Pitched well with a limited workload last season - Needs to double the output in 2015 to give Cubs any postseason hopes.
5 - Burnett (PIT) 8-18 - 4.59 ERA - 213.2 IP - 81 ERA+ (Age 37) - Pitching for a miserable Phillies team last season - Still durable after all those years, but age-related decline likely to continue - Probably should retire - Would be no surprise to see him released by the All Star break.
NUMBER FOUR
1 - Worley (PIT) 8-4 - 2.85 ERA - 110.2 IP - 125 ERA+ (Age 26) - Good numbers in limited action last season - It may not take long for this guy to supplant Burnett in the number three slot in the rotation.
2 - Fiers (MIL) 6-5 - 2.13 ERA - 71.2 IP - 178 ERA+ (Age 29) - Had the highest ERA+ in the division last season - but needs to at least double his innings pitched in 2015 to give rotation the necessary boost to stay in the race.
3 - Lackey (STL) 3-3 - 4.30 ERA - 60.2 IP - 86 ERA+ (Age 35) - Acquired from Boston prior to the trade deadline last season - Struggled in limited action - Whether or not he can bounce back in 2015 remains to be seen.
4 - Wood (CHI) 8-13 - 5.03 ERA - 173.2 IP - 76 ERA+ (Age 27) - Durable, but ineffective last season - He may not be able to improve in 2015 - The Cubs will be in trouble if he doesn't pitch more effectively this season.
5 - Cingrani (CIN) 2-8 - 4.55 ERA - 63.1 IP - 79 ERA+ (Age 24) - After showing flashes of brilliance when first called up in 2013, regressed significantly last season - Without vast improvement this season, the Reds will have serious issues.
NUMBER FIVE
1 - Hendricks (CHI) 7-2 - 2.46 ERA - 80.1 IP - 155 ERA+ (Age 24) - Encouraging results in limited exposure last season - If he can come close to duplicating this performance with 160+ IP, Cubs should easily escape the cellar.
2 - Locke (PIT) 7-6 - 3.91 ERA - 131.1 IP - 91 ERA+ (Age 26) - Assuming Burnett flops for the Pirates in 2015, the team will desperately need this guy to pitch better than last year - and work closer to 200 IP.
3 - Martinez (STL) 2-4 - 4.03 ERA - 89.1 IP - 91 ERA+ (Age 22) - Has the raw talent to develop into a top end of the rotation starter - If he does, Cards could run away with division title.
4 - Nelson (MIL) 2-9 - 4.83 ERA - 69.1 IP - 77 ERA+ (Age 25) - Expected to improve this season - Nowhere to go but up.
5 - Desclafani (CIN) 2-2 - 6.27 ERA - 33.0 IP - 61 ERA+ (Age 24) - Posted a decent 3.78 ERA in the minors last season - Significant improvement is critical in the fifth spot in the rotation if the Reds hope to have any chance at all in the division race.
OVERALL ROTATION RANKINGS
1 - St Louis Cardinals - The combination of Wainwright, Lynn and Wacha should be dominant in 2015.
2 - Chicago Cubs - The addition of Lester and the continued development of their younger talent brings some measure of credibility to a franchise desperate to win.
3 - Milwaukee Brewers - Lacking a true "ace", but still capable of keeping their team in most games.
4 - Pittsburgh Pirates - A shaky rotation with the potential to be a total disaster.
5 - Cincinnati Reds - After Cueto, a lot of question marks.
Friday, February 6, 2015
Ranking NL Central Position Players
After months of careful study and analysis, using advanced metrics and common sense, I've ranked all the position players in the NL Central who are most likely to be in the starting lineup on a regular basis - at least, at the beginning of the season.
However, there could be significant changes as early as May - at least for one team: The Chicago Cubs. Around that time, their highly touted third base prospect - Kris Bryant - will probably be called up from the minors to add much needed offensive firepower for a team expected to contend for a division title (Las Vegas odds makers list them at 12 to 1 to win the World Series; along with the Cardinals!). One thing is certain: The Cubs will not win the NL Central - let alone even qualify for a wild card berth with their current projected lineup (even with five Jon Lesters in the starting rotation).
A comparison of the five NL Central teams' primary position players sheds some light on who are legitimate contenders - and who are the pretenders:
Catcher
In the wake of an injury-plagued season in '14 (only 110 games played), the Cardinals' Yadier Molina has reportedly shed twenty pounds, hoping to take some pressure off a bum knee. If he can stay reasonably healthy this season, he should be able to outperform Milwaukee's Jonathan Lucroy (#2) who had his best season last year (.301/.373/.465 with a NL-most 53 doubles).
Cincinnati's Devin Mesoraco (#3) who hit 25 HR (most by any MLB catcher) in just 114 games appears to be a rising star.
Pittsburgh is going to miss Russell Martin (now with Toronto), although his replacement - Francisco Cervelli (#4) - should be adequate. Unfortunately for the Pirates, "adequate" may not be good enough to help nurture a mediocre pitching staff through a challenging season.
The Cubs acquired Miguel Montero (#5) from Arizona for his "pitch framing" ability; somehow overlooking his sharp offensive decline in the past two seasons - a trend that will likely continue in 2015. As far as "pitch framing" goes, it didn't really help the D-Backs' atrocious pitching staff last year (4.26 ERA was 2nd-worst in the league, behind Colorado's 4.86 ERA).
First Base
Chicago's Anthony Rizzo, after a breakout season, appears to have overtaken the Reds' Joey Votto (#2), who will be trying to return to form after a couple of seasons of nagging injuries which dramatically hurt his production (only 62 games played last season).
The Cardinals are hoping Matt Adams (#3) will regain that power stroke he had in '13 when he hit 17 HR in 319 PA. If he does, he could surpass Votto and possibly Rizzo.
Milwaukee's newest addition - Adam Lind (#4) - could be an offensive weapon (.321/.381/.479 in 96 games) - although somewhat of a defensive liability.
Meanwhile, the Pirates are desperately hoping Pedro Alvarez (#5) rebounds after a disappointing '14 - when he hit just 18 HR - half the total from '13.
Second Base
Pittsburgh's Neil Walker (.271/.342/.467 with 23 HR) is an All Star caliber player who is just entering his prime. If anyone's going to challenge him, it could well be the Cardinals' Kolten Wong (#2), who not only has excellent defensive skills, his hitting should be greatly improved in '14.
Third ranked Scooter Gennett (.289/.320/.434) of Milwaukee has a decent bat but needs work on the defense to reach All Star status.
The Reds' fourth ranked Brandon Phillips (.266/.306/.372) nearly punched out a Cincinnati beat reporter a couple of years ago for noticing his OBP sucked. It still does, and his defensive skills are slipping for the aging hot dog, as well.
The Cubs are praying that fifth ranked Javier Baez (.164/.227/.324) will cut down on his strikeouts (95 in 229 PA). Otherwise their postseason hopes get very dim.
Third Base
The Reds' Todd Frazier had a breakout season in '14 (.273/.336/.458 with 29 HR) - and he's good with the glove to rank a notch ahead of the Redbirds' Matt Carpenter (NL-most 95 BB), who displayed remarkable postseason power (4 HR in 39 PA) after hitting just 8 HR in the regular season.
Pittsburgh's third ranked Josh Harrison (.315/.347/.490) had a career year in '14 - will likely regress a bit in '15.
Aging Aramis Ramirez (#4) of Milwaukee (.285/.330/.427) posted his lowest SLG since '02 - and his glove is suspect at the hot corner, as well.
Either Mike Olt or Tommy La Stella (#5 & 5A) will likely be in the lineup for the Cubs on Opening Day - and neither one is going to do much to enhance Chicago's postseason dream. Maybe rookie Kris Bryant will get called up by May and have a monster season - because that's what they need to be competitive.
Shortstop
Jhonny Peralta (club record 21 HR for SS) was better than expected last year for St Louis, when he was arguably, the best shortstop in either league. He'll likely regress a bit in '15, but should still be better than Starlin Castro (#2) who hit well (.272/.339/.438) but still has defensive issues.
Pittsburgh's Jordy Mercer (#3) is a solid defensive player with a decent bat, while the Reds' Zack Cozart (#4) is a very good defensive player with a weak bat (.221/.268/.300).
The Brewers' Jean Segura (#5) is a good defensive player whose production fell off considerably in '14 (.246/.289/.326) compared to '13 (.274/.329/.423) when he was an All Star. If he doesn't improve this season, the Brewers could be in serious trouble, along with the Cubs.
Left Field
Pittsburgh's Starling Marte (.291/.356/.453) is a five tool player who will only get better in '15 and beyond. Matt Holldiay (#2) is starting to show some age-related regression, with a career low .441 SLG last season. If he can hit 20 HR and drive in 90 again, the Cards should return to the postseason for a record fifth straight season.
The Brewers' third ranked Khris Davis (.244/.299/.457 with 22 HR) should post better offensive numbers in '15, but his defense is still suspect.
Marlon Byrd (#4) - the new addition to the Reds' lineup - hit a career high 25 HR with the Phillies last season, but at the age of 37, may show some regression this season.
The Cubs' Chris Coghlan (#5) is a pretty good hitter (.283/.352/.452) but an atrocious defensive player.
Center Field
Andrew McCutchen (.314/.410/.542) is the best player on an improving Pirates' franchise, although he's overrated, defensively. Two seasons ago, Milwaukee's Carlos Gomez (#2) played a spectacular defensive CF, regressing slightly last year, but his hitting was nearly a carbon copy (.284/.356/.477 with 23 HR).
After a lackluster '13, third ranked Jon Jay (.295/.359/.396) rebounded nicely for the Cardinals in '14 - especially defensively.
Cincinnati's speedy Billy Hamilton (.250/.292/.355) is ranked at #4, but will likely show overall improvement as his career progresses.
Dexter Fowler's (#5) ability to get on base (.375 last season) will help the Cubs' offense this season, but defensively, he's a liability. In other words, he's got lots of company in Chicago.
Right Field
The Cardinals' big acquisition this off season - Jason Heyward - will solve the team's biggest weakness last season - although duplicating a 7.0 WAR may be a difficult assignment. However, if he can find his niche in the St Louis lineup, he could have his best offensive season in '15 - and the Cards should cruise to another division title.
The Brewers' injury-plagued Ryan Braun (#2) discovered that playing without his special vitamins wasn't so easy last year - posting career lows in his entire slash line (.266/.324/.453). He's bound to improve on those numbers in '15, but he'll never get back to that PED-enhanced production from a few years ago. Defensively, a liability.
The Cubs' hot rookie sensation - third ranked Jorge Soler (.292/.330/.573 in 97 PA) - may continue where he left off last season - or he may find out that big league pitching isn't so easy to hit this year. If he flops, more trauma at Wrigley Field for another painful year.
The Pirates are counting on rookie Gregory Polanco (#4) to improve on last season's 89 game introduction to the major leagues (.235/.307/.343). If he struggles once again, it's going to be tough for Pittsburgh to reach the postseason for a third straight year.
How bad was Jay Bruce (.217/.281/.373) last season for the Reds? So bad, that even a couple of relatively untested rookies from Chicago and Pittsburgh are already ranked ahead of him. He's got to get better in '15. There's nowhere to go but up from a negative 1.1 WAR.
SUMMARY
The Cardinals and Pirates - with three players each ranked number one at their positions - figure to have the best overall lineups in the NL Central. The difference between those two teams seems to be pitching - the Cardinals have the advantage - barring any significant injuries.
It would be a mistake to count any team out of the race for the division title (even the Cubs). If Votto returns to form this season, the Reds could be much better. The same goes for the Brewers with their former golden boy, Braunie.
For the Cubs, they need three relatively unproven rookies to rise to the occasion, if they hope to rise in the standings - which may be asking too much, too soon.
PROJECTIONS
St Louis should win division title again
Second place could be a tight race between Pittsburgh and Cincinnati - even Milwaukee or Chicago could sneak up there if all their pieces fall into place
In other words, second through fifth place is almost a toss up between four teams
However, there could be significant changes as early as May - at least for one team: The Chicago Cubs. Around that time, their highly touted third base prospect - Kris Bryant - will probably be called up from the minors to add much needed offensive firepower for a team expected to contend for a division title (Las Vegas odds makers list them at 12 to 1 to win the World Series; along with the Cardinals!). One thing is certain: The Cubs will not win the NL Central - let alone even qualify for a wild card berth with their current projected lineup (even with five Jon Lesters in the starting rotation).
A comparison of the five NL Central teams' primary position players sheds some light on who are legitimate contenders - and who are the pretenders:
Catcher
In the wake of an injury-plagued season in '14 (only 110 games played), the Cardinals' Yadier Molina has reportedly shed twenty pounds, hoping to take some pressure off a bum knee. If he can stay reasonably healthy this season, he should be able to outperform Milwaukee's Jonathan Lucroy (#2) who had his best season last year (.301/.373/.465 with a NL-most 53 doubles).
Cincinnati's Devin Mesoraco (#3) who hit 25 HR (most by any MLB catcher) in just 114 games appears to be a rising star.
Pittsburgh is going to miss Russell Martin (now with Toronto), although his replacement - Francisco Cervelli (#4) - should be adequate. Unfortunately for the Pirates, "adequate" may not be good enough to help nurture a mediocre pitching staff through a challenging season.
The Cubs acquired Miguel Montero (#5) from Arizona for his "pitch framing" ability; somehow overlooking his sharp offensive decline in the past two seasons - a trend that will likely continue in 2015. As far as "pitch framing" goes, it didn't really help the D-Backs' atrocious pitching staff last year (4.26 ERA was 2nd-worst in the league, behind Colorado's 4.86 ERA).
First Base
Chicago's Anthony Rizzo, after a breakout season, appears to have overtaken the Reds' Joey Votto (#2), who will be trying to return to form after a couple of seasons of nagging injuries which dramatically hurt his production (only 62 games played last season).
The Cardinals are hoping Matt Adams (#3) will regain that power stroke he had in '13 when he hit 17 HR in 319 PA. If he does, he could surpass Votto and possibly Rizzo.
Milwaukee's newest addition - Adam Lind (#4) - could be an offensive weapon (.321/.381/.479 in 96 games) - although somewhat of a defensive liability.
Meanwhile, the Pirates are desperately hoping Pedro Alvarez (#5) rebounds after a disappointing '14 - when he hit just 18 HR - half the total from '13.
Second Base
Pittsburgh's Neil Walker (.271/.342/.467 with 23 HR) is an All Star caliber player who is just entering his prime. If anyone's going to challenge him, it could well be the Cardinals' Kolten Wong (#2), who not only has excellent defensive skills, his hitting should be greatly improved in '14.
Third ranked Scooter Gennett (.289/.320/.434) of Milwaukee has a decent bat but needs work on the defense to reach All Star status.
The Reds' fourth ranked Brandon Phillips (.266/.306/.372) nearly punched out a Cincinnati beat reporter a couple of years ago for noticing his OBP sucked. It still does, and his defensive skills are slipping for the aging hot dog, as well.
The Cubs are praying that fifth ranked Javier Baez (.164/.227/.324) will cut down on his strikeouts (95 in 229 PA). Otherwise their postseason hopes get very dim.
Third Base
The Reds' Todd Frazier had a breakout season in '14 (.273/.336/.458 with 29 HR) - and he's good with the glove to rank a notch ahead of the Redbirds' Matt Carpenter (NL-most 95 BB), who displayed remarkable postseason power (4 HR in 39 PA) after hitting just 8 HR in the regular season.
Pittsburgh's third ranked Josh Harrison (.315/.347/.490) had a career year in '14 - will likely regress a bit in '15.
Aging Aramis Ramirez (#4) of Milwaukee (.285/.330/.427) posted his lowest SLG since '02 - and his glove is suspect at the hot corner, as well.
Either Mike Olt or Tommy La Stella (#5 & 5A) will likely be in the lineup for the Cubs on Opening Day - and neither one is going to do much to enhance Chicago's postseason dream. Maybe rookie Kris Bryant will get called up by May and have a monster season - because that's what they need to be competitive.
Shortstop
Jhonny Peralta (club record 21 HR for SS) was better than expected last year for St Louis, when he was arguably, the best shortstop in either league. He'll likely regress a bit in '15, but should still be better than Starlin Castro (#2) who hit well (.272/.339/.438) but still has defensive issues.
Pittsburgh's Jordy Mercer (#3) is a solid defensive player with a decent bat, while the Reds' Zack Cozart (#4) is a very good defensive player with a weak bat (.221/.268/.300).
The Brewers' Jean Segura (#5) is a good defensive player whose production fell off considerably in '14 (.246/.289/.326) compared to '13 (.274/.329/.423) when he was an All Star. If he doesn't improve this season, the Brewers could be in serious trouble, along with the Cubs.
Left Field
Pittsburgh's Starling Marte (.291/.356/.453) is a five tool player who will only get better in '15 and beyond. Matt Holldiay (#2) is starting to show some age-related regression, with a career low .441 SLG last season. If he can hit 20 HR and drive in 90 again, the Cards should return to the postseason for a record fifth straight season.
The Brewers' third ranked Khris Davis (.244/.299/.457 with 22 HR) should post better offensive numbers in '15, but his defense is still suspect.
Marlon Byrd (#4) - the new addition to the Reds' lineup - hit a career high 25 HR with the Phillies last season, but at the age of 37, may show some regression this season.
The Cubs' Chris Coghlan (#5) is a pretty good hitter (.283/.352/.452) but an atrocious defensive player.
Center Field
Andrew McCutchen (.314/.410/.542) is the best player on an improving Pirates' franchise, although he's overrated, defensively. Two seasons ago, Milwaukee's Carlos Gomez (#2) played a spectacular defensive CF, regressing slightly last year, but his hitting was nearly a carbon copy (.284/.356/.477 with 23 HR).
After a lackluster '13, third ranked Jon Jay (.295/.359/.396) rebounded nicely for the Cardinals in '14 - especially defensively.
Cincinnati's speedy Billy Hamilton (.250/.292/.355) is ranked at #4, but will likely show overall improvement as his career progresses.
Dexter Fowler's (#5) ability to get on base (.375 last season) will help the Cubs' offense this season, but defensively, he's a liability. In other words, he's got lots of company in Chicago.
Right Field
The Cardinals' big acquisition this off season - Jason Heyward - will solve the team's biggest weakness last season - although duplicating a 7.0 WAR may be a difficult assignment. However, if he can find his niche in the St Louis lineup, he could have his best offensive season in '15 - and the Cards should cruise to another division title.
The Brewers' injury-plagued Ryan Braun (#2) discovered that playing without his special vitamins wasn't so easy last year - posting career lows in his entire slash line (.266/.324/.453). He's bound to improve on those numbers in '15, but he'll never get back to that PED-enhanced production from a few years ago. Defensively, a liability.
The Cubs' hot rookie sensation - third ranked Jorge Soler (.292/.330/.573 in 97 PA) - may continue where he left off last season - or he may find out that big league pitching isn't so easy to hit this year. If he flops, more trauma at Wrigley Field for another painful year.
The Pirates are counting on rookie Gregory Polanco (#4) to improve on last season's 89 game introduction to the major leagues (.235/.307/.343). If he struggles once again, it's going to be tough for Pittsburgh to reach the postseason for a third straight year.
How bad was Jay Bruce (.217/.281/.373) last season for the Reds? So bad, that even a couple of relatively untested rookies from Chicago and Pittsburgh are already ranked ahead of him. He's got to get better in '15. There's nowhere to go but up from a negative 1.1 WAR.
SUMMARY
The Cardinals and Pirates - with three players each ranked number one at their positions - figure to have the best overall lineups in the NL Central. The difference between those two teams seems to be pitching - the Cardinals have the advantage - barring any significant injuries.
It would be a mistake to count any team out of the race for the division title (even the Cubs). If Votto returns to form this season, the Reds could be much better. The same goes for the Brewers with their former golden boy, Braunie.
For the Cubs, they need three relatively unproven rookies to rise to the occasion, if they hope to rise in the standings - which may be asking too much, too soon.
PROJECTIONS
St Louis should win division title again
Second place could be a tight race between Pittsburgh and Cincinnati - even Milwaukee or Chicago could sneak up there if all their pieces fall into place
In other words, second through fifth place is almost a toss up between four teams
Sunday, February 1, 2015
Are the Cubs Really Going to Challenge the Cardinals?
Apparently, the Las Vegas odds makers believe the Chicago Cubs are for real - giving the franchise that hasn't won a World Series in 106 years a legitimate shot to win it all in 2015 (12 to 1). Only the Washington Nationals (11 to 2) and Los Angeles Dodgers (8 to 1) are considered to have a better shot at becoming World Champions.
Joining the Cubs at 12 to 1 are the Boston Red Sox, LA Angels of Anaheim and the St Louis Cardinals. In other words, the Cubs have made such an off-season splash, they're perceived to be on equal footing with the Cardinals, heading into the new season. Technically, they will be tied for first place prior to Opening Day. That's the good news. The bad news: They have to play 162 games.
I'm not just mocking the Cubs because of their past history of ineptitude. Actually, their immediate future - this season - is destined to disappoint their delusional fan base for the 107th consecutive year; but who's counting?
Here's a comparison of each team's anticipated lineups for the upcoming season. These are the position players expected to start most of the games (along with last season's WAR & projected WAR for this season):
Here's a comparison of each team's anticipated lineups for the upcoming season. These are the position players expected to start most of the games (along with last season's WAR & projected WAR for this season):
C Yadier Molina (2.3 WAR - Projected 5.5) Miguel Montero (0.6 WAR - Projected 1.5)
1B Matt Adams (2.2 WAR - Projected 3.5) Anthony Rizzo (4.9 WAR - Projected 5.5)
2B Kolten Wong (2.1 WAR - Projected 4.5) Javier Baez (-1.1 WAR - Projected 1.5)
3B Matt Carpenter (2.8 WAR - Projected 3.5) Tommy La Stella (-0.4 WAR - Projected 1.5)
SS Jhonny Peralta (5.7 WAR - Projected 3.5) Starlin Castro (1.9 WAR - Projected 3.5)
LF Matt Holliday (4.0 WAR - Projected 4.5) Chris Coghlan (0.6 WAR - Projected 1.0)
CF Jon Jay (2.8 WAR - Projected 2.5) Dexter Fowler (1.5 WAR - Projected 2.5)
RF Jason Heyward (7.0 WAR - Projected 5.5) Jorge Soler (1.1 WAR - Projected 3.5)
Total Cardinals (28.9 WAR - Projected 33.0) Total Cubs (9.1 WAR - Projected 20.5)
For the Cubs, their third baseman of the future - Kris Bryant - may be called up early enough in the season to have a positive impact on the team's fortunes. There is very little doubt he'll be an elite player - possibly near "Mike Trout" levels of performance, once he gets acclimated to the major leagues. Let's say he's called up early enough and performs at a ridiculously high rate to produce a 10.0 WAR. We'll remove La Stella's projected 1.5 WAR and insert Bryant's projected 10.0 WAR to change the team projection to a 29.0 WAR. Even then, it's probably not going to be enough to catch the Cardinals - who also have better pitching than their arch-rivals.
The bottom line: Those 12 to 1 odds may be appropriate for the Cardinals. But it's a sucker bet for the Cubs.
For the Cubs, their third baseman of the future - Kris Bryant - may be called up early enough in the season to have a positive impact on the team's fortunes. There is very little doubt he'll be an elite player - possibly near "Mike Trout" levels of performance, once he gets acclimated to the major leagues. Let's say he's called up early enough and performs at a ridiculously high rate to produce a 10.0 WAR. We'll remove La Stella's projected 1.5 WAR and insert Bryant's projected 10.0 WAR to change the team projection to a 29.0 WAR. Even then, it's probably not going to be enough to catch the Cardinals - who also have better pitching than their arch-rivals.
The bottom line: Those 12 to 1 odds may be appropriate for the Cardinals. But it's a sucker bet for the Cubs.
Friday, January 30, 2015
Will the Pirates Challenge the Cardinals in 2015?
The Pittsburgh Pirates may have finished in second place (88-74) last season - two games behind the Cardinals (90-72) in the NL Central - but they actually were a better team, saber-metrically speaking. Pittsburgh's Run Differential (+51) was significantly better than the Cardinals' (+12), who really had no business winning 90 games - but they did. Call it luck or clutch performances or brilliant managing or whatever you want to call it - but according to Bill James' Pythagorean Winning Percentage, St Louis should have won just 83 games.
In fact, the Cardinals' team WAR was just 3.5 (above league average) in 2014 - 5th best in the National League. The two best NL teams - Washington Nationals (+16.6) and LA Dodgers (+15.8) were both eliminated in the first round of the playoffs - and the third best team - Pirates (+9.2) - didn't get past the wild card game - eliminated by the eventual World Series champions - San Francisco Giants (+5.1) - who "on paper" were just the 4th best team in the NL. Of course, they took care of the Cardinals in a five game NLCS before eventually knocking off the KC Royals in a seven game Fall Classic.
Much has happened since the Cardinals' season ended in San Francisco last October. In the wake of the Oscar Taveras tragedy, the need to fill a glaring hole in right field produced the Shelby Miller (and Tyrell Jenkins) for Jason Heyward (and Jordan Walden) trade. Last season, the right field position for the Cardinals generated a WAR that was -3.1 (below league average) - only the Cincinnati Reds (-3.3) fared worse in the entire National League.
What was a black hole last year figures to be a shining star this year, however.
With Yadier Molina's injury-plagued season, Cardinals' catching was also significantly below average - but that too, figures to change for the better this season. Additionally, with Kolten Wong's anticipated improvement at second base, what was once a weakness in 2014 should now be a strength in 2015. Wong could very well have an All Star-caliber season in 2015; certainly, greatly improved over last year.
Optimistically, it's not unreasonable to anticipate a better offensive season from veteran left fielder Matt Holliday after a down year, as well; and despite the projections for Matt Adams to merely repeat last year's production at first base, I think he'll improve; plus the right-handed swinging backup Mark Reynolds should help spark additional offense against left-handed pitching.
The only position that may see a downward shift in production is at shortstop, where Jhonny Peralta performed far above reasonable expectations in 2014; especially defensively. It was a career year, so it's unlikely he'll be able to repeat it. Speaking of "career years", Matt Carpenter had one in 2013 - but after moving from second base to third base last year, his production slipped quite a bit; but it's not unreasonable to expect better numbers from him in 2015.
Despite Trevor Rosenthal's 45 saves last season, the entire bullpen (aside from Pat Neshek) had a down year; it's likely going to be much better (and healthier) this season.
The starting rotation did a good job last season; and with a return to form from a healthy Michael Wacha. he could pick up where he left off in the latter part of 2013. That, along with injury-free seasons from Adam Wainwright & company, the rotation should be among the best in the league this season. If Jaime Garcia can contribute even close to 100 quality innings this year, that would be a bonus; an unexpected bonus, actually.
In other words, there is reason for optimism for the Cardinals heading into the new season. If all goes as planned, the Redbirds should return to the postseason for a franchise-record fifth straight year; and in the process, capture their third straight NL Central title.
If St Louis is going to be challenged in the Central, the most likely candidate is still the Pirates, although they have some issues that may prevent them from making a serious run.
First and foremost, they lost their fine catcher, Russell Martin (5.4 WAR) to free agency (Toronto Blue Jays). Meanwhile, his replacement - Francisco Cervelli - is going to be adequate, but hardly an All Star caliber player (In a seven year MLB career, Cervelli has appeared in 250 games, posting a career WAR of 4.0).
Like the Cardinals in 2013, the Pirates were an offensive juggernaut last season; in fact, the WAR from their "non pitchers" was 12.3 above league average, which was tops in the NL. However, the loss of Martin and the recent trade of right fielder Travis Snider to Baltimore (2.5 WAR) for a minor league pitching prospect - is bound to slow down the offense this season. In Snider's absence, Pittsburgh is planning to use rookie Gregory Polanco, who had limited success in 89 games last year (.235/.307/.363), but may or may not pan out this year. They've also added Corey Hart (-0.5 WAR) as a possible alternative in right field (or first base) - although his better days are well behind him.
Last season, the Pirates' pitching (-3.1 below league average WAR) was their weak link, and unfortunately for them, it's probably going to be even weaker in 2015, after losing free agent Edinson Volquez (2.0 WAR) to the KC Royals and replacing him with over-the-hill A.J. Burnett (-0.3 WAR with the Phillies), who is now 37 years old and fading fast. At best, their starting rotation is shaky; at worst, a disaster.
If the Pirates are going to contend, they're going to need stellar seasons once again from guys like Andrew McCutchen (6.0 WAR), Starling Marte (5.6 WAR) and Josh Harrison (5.2 WAR). Plus, they need Pedro Alvarez to return to 2013 form, when he led the NL with 36 home runs, primarily batting in the cleanup spot in the lineup; however, that's a long shot. This is a major hole in their lineup as it stands right now; and without a viable number four guy, there's little chance for the Pirates to be raising the Jolly Roger enough times to overtake St Louis.
The Pirates are still a good team, but they won't be as good as they were the last two seasons.
The Cardinals will be better than they were last year; maybe even better than they were in 2013, when they went to the World Series. Whether or not they make it back to the Fall Classic in 2015 remains to be seen. Odds-makers are giving them a 12 to 1 shot of winning the World Series.
Odds makers are giving the Cubs the same shot of winning the World Series. Seriously. The Cubs.
In fact, the Cardinals' team WAR was just 3.5 (above league average) in 2014 - 5th best in the National League. The two best NL teams - Washington Nationals (+16.6) and LA Dodgers (+15.8) were both eliminated in the first round of the playoffs - and the third best team - Pirates (+9.2) - didn't get past the wild card game - eliminated by the eventual World Series champions - San Francisco Giants (+5.1) - who "on paper" were just the 4th best team in the NL. Of course, they took care of the Cardinals in a five game NLCS before eventually knocking off the KC Royals in a seven game Fall Classic.
Much has happened since the Cardinals' season ended in San Francisco last October. In the wake of the Oscar Taveras tragedy, the need to fill a glaring hole in right field produced the Shelby Miller (and Tyrell Jenkins) for Jason Heyward (and Jordan Walden) trade. Last season, the right field position for the Cardinals generated a WAR that was -3.1 (below league average) - only the Cincinnati Reds (-3.3) fared worse in the entire National League.
What was a black hole last year figures to be a shining star this year, however.
With Yadier Molina's injury-plagued season, Cardinals' catching was also significantly below average - but that too, figures to change for the better this season. Additionally, with Kolten Wong's anticipated improvement at second base, what was once a weakness in 2014 should now be a strength in 2015. Wong could very well have an All Star-caliber season in 2015; certainly, greatly improved over last year.
Optimistically, it's not unreasonable to anticipate a better offensive season from veteran left fielder Matt Holliday after a down year, as well; and despite the projections for Matt Adams to merely repeat last year's production at first base, I think he'll improve; plus the right-handed swinging backup Mark Reynolds should help spark additional offense against left-handed pitching.
The only position that may see a downward shift in production is at shortstop, where Jhonny Peralta performed far above reasonable expectations in 2014; especially defensively. It was a career year, so it's unlikely he'll be able to repeat it. Speaking of "career years", Matt Carpenter had one in 2013 - but after moving from second base to third base last year, his production slipped quite a bit; but it's not unreasonable to expect better numbers from him in 2015.
Despite Trevor Rosenthal's 45 saves last season, the entire bullpen (aside from Pat Neshek) had a down year; it's likely going to be much better (and healthier) this season.
The starting rotation did a good job last season; and with a return to form from a healthy Michael Wacha. he could pick up where he left off in the latter part of 2013. That, along with injury-free seasons from Adam Wainwright & company, the rotation should be among the best in the league this season. If Jaime Garcia can contribute even close to 100 quality innings this year, that would be a bonus; an unexpected bonus, actually.
In other words, there is reason for optimism for the Cardinals heading into the new season. If all goes as planned, the Redbirds should return to the postseason for a franchise-record fifth straight year; and in the process, capture their third straight NL Central title.
If St Louis is going to be challenged in the Central, the most likely candidate is still the Pirates, although they have some issues that may prevent them from making a serious run.
First and foremost, they lost their fine catcher, Russell Martin (5.4 WAR) to free agency (Toronto Blue Jays). Meanwhile, his replacement - Francisco Cervelli - is going to be adequate, but hardly an All Star caliber player (In a seven year MLB career, Cervelli has appeared in 250 games, posting a career WAR of 4.0).
Like the Cardinals in 2013, the Pirates were an offensive juggernaut last season; in fact, the WAR from their "non pitchers" was 12.3 above league average, which was tops in the NL. However, the loss of Martin and the recent trade of right fielder Travis Snider to Baltimore (2.5 WAR) for a minor league pitching prospect - is bound to slow down the offense this season. In Snider's absence, Pittsburgh is planning to use rookie Gregory Polanco, who had limited success in 89 games last year (.235/.307/.363), but may or may not pan out this year. They've also added Corey Hart (-0.5 WAR) as a possible alternative in right field (or first base) - although his better days are well behind him.
Last season, the Pirates' pitching (-3.1 below league average WAR) was their weak link, and unfortunately for them, it's probably going to be even weaker in 2015, after losing free agent Edinson Volquez (2.0 WAR) to the KC Royals and replacing him with over-the-hill A.J. Burnett (-0.3 WAR with the Phillies), who is now 37 years old and fading fast. At best, their starting rotation is shaky; at worst, a disaster.
If the Pirates are going to contend, they're going to need stellar seasons once again from guys like Andrew McCutchen (6.0 WAR), Starling Marte (5.6 WAR) and Josh Harrison (5.2 WAR). Plus, they need Pedro Alvarez to return to 2013 form, when he led the NL with 36 home runs, primarily batting in the cleanup spot in the lineup; however, that's a long shot. This is a major hole in their lineup as it stands right now; and without a viable number four guy, there's little chance for the Pirates to be raising the Jolly Roger enough times to overtake St Louis.
The Pirates are still a good team, but they won't be as good as they were the last two seasons.
The Cardinals will be better than they were last year; maybe even better than they were in 2013, when they went to the World Series. Whether or not they make it back to the Fall Classic in 2015 remains to be seen. Odds-makers are giving them a 12 to 1 shot of winning the World Series.
Odds makers are giving the Cubs the same shot of winning the World Series. Seriously. The Cubs.
Sunday, January 25, 2015
2015 NL Central Projections: Cardinals Overwhelming Favorite?
With all the recent hype surrounding the Chicago Cubs (new manager, new left-handed pitching ace, new center fielder, bold new prediction from first baseman to "win the NL Central"), the Las Vegas odds makers have given the lovable losers a legitimate shot to win the World Series (around 12 to 1?).
At the same time, unimpressed with the off-season moves of the St Louis Cardinals, those same odds-makers have downgraded last year's division champions - giving them about the same chance of winning the World Series as last year's cellar-dwelling Cubs.
That's just f***ing ridiculous.
Assuming WAR actually means something (generally speaking, it does), let's take a look at the entire NL Central's off-season moves, from a Wins Above Replacement perspective. This will tell us if a team's additions, along with their subtractions actually figures to help them win more games in 2015.
Obviously, there are still some free agents floating around out there that could alter these projections; not to mention a few blockbuster trades that may happen before the season begins. For now, here's the way things have gone for each team:
CARDINALS - 16 players that spent all or part of the 2014 season on the roster are gone. The most notable subtractions are reliever Pat Neshek (2.3 WAR) and starter Shelby Miller (1.7 WAR). Neshek - a free agent who had a career year in '14 - signed with the Houston Astros; Miller was traded to the Atlanta Braves in exchange for right fielder Jason Heyward (7.0 WAR) - who becomes a free agent at the end of this season; so this deal is a long term risk, but a short term bonanza.
All of the remaining 14 players that are gone had slightly negative WARs. In fact, the grand total of the 16 subtractions is NEGATIVE 1.2 WAR. Branch Rickey used to call the act of dumping a player with declining skills "Addition by Subtraction" - and that concept seems to apply here.
Obviously, the Heyward acquisition is the most significant of the front office's additions during the off-season, but there were four others: Jordan Walden (0.9 WAR), Mark Reynolds (0.6 WAR), Dean Anna (0.2 WAR) and Matt Belisle (0.1 WAR).
Total WAR for additions: 8.8 - Add in 1.2 WAR from subtractions - NET GAIN: 10.0 WAR
CUBS - 8 players that spent all or part of the 2014 season on the roster are gone. The most notable subtractions: Jeff Samardzija (1.8 WAR - now a starting pitcher for the White Sox) and former third baseman Luis Valbuena (1.4 WAR) who was traded to the Houston Astros for center fielder Dexter Fowler (1.8 WAR). All told, the Cubs gave up a total WAR of 1.8 in their subtractions.
Additions: The biggest coup in the free agent market - left-handed ace Jon Lester (5.2 WAR) was a step in the right direction for the franchise with the worst pitching in the division last season (707 runs allowed). They also signed former Cards closer Jason Motte (-0.1 WAR) - trying to make a comeback after TJS - and reacquired starting pitcher Jason Hammel (3.1 WAR) - However, the Hammel signing doesn't add to the team's total WAR since his contribution was already factored in from last season. Along with the previously mentioned Fowler, the other additions include catcher Miguel Montero (0.6 WAR) and utility outfielder Chris Denorfia (0.1 WAR).
Total WAR for additions: 7.6 - Lost 1.8 WAR from subtractions - NET GAIN: 5.8 WAR
The rest of the NL Central have either regressed or improved only slightly:
REDS - 11 subtractions and 4 additions equals 1.1 WAR
PIRATES - 11 subtractions and 5 additions equals NEGATIVE 3.9 WAR
BREWERS - 13 subtractions and 4 additions equals NEGATIVE 4.3 WAR
NL Central Projections for 2015 - The "Starting Point" for each team is their Pythagorean Winning Percentage from 2014 (Based on Run Differential). As we can see, four out of the five NL Central teams won more games than their run differential would normally produce (especially the Cardinals):
Team W-L in '14 vs Pythagorean - 2015 W-L Projection
Cardinals 90-72 83-79 93-69
Pirates 88-74 87-75 83-79
Reds 76-86 79-83 80-82
Cubs 73-89 71-91 77-85
Brewers 82-80 80-82 76-86
It looks like it's going to be a tight race for last place in the NL Central in 2015. It seems as though the Cubbies might be able to escape the cellar; but just by the slimmest of margins. Certainly, this isn't what all those delusional Cubs fans are expecting for the upcoming season - not to mention those Las Vegas odds-makers. Sorry. Please accept my condolences for another season of futility.
Maybe 2016 will be better. But don't count on it.
At the same time, unimpressed with the off-season moves of the St Louis Cardinals, those same odds-makers have downgraded last year's division champions - giving them about the same chance of winning the World Series as last year's cellar-dwelling Cubs.
That's just f***ing ridiculous.
Assuming WAR actually means something (generally speaking, it does), let's take a look at the entire NL Central's off-season moves, from a Wins Above Replacement perspective. This will tell us if a team's additions, along with their subtractions actually figures to help them win more games in 2015.
Obviously, there are still some free agents floating around out there that could alter these projections; not to mention a few blockbuster trades that may happen before the season begins. For now, here's the way things have gone for each team:
CARDINALS - 16 players that spent all or part of the 2014 season on the roster are gone. The most notable subtractions are reliever Pat Neshek (2.3 WAR) and starter Shelby Miller (1.7 WAR). Neshek - a free agent who had a career year in '14 - signed with the Houston Astros; Miller was traded to the Atlanta Braves in exchange for right fielder Jason Heyward (7.0 WAR) - who becomes a free agent at the end of this season; so this deal is a long term risk, but a short term bonanza.
All of the remaining 14 players that are gone had slightly negative WARs. In fact, the grand total of the 16 subtractions is NEGATIVE 1.2 WAR. Branch Rickey used to call the act of dumping a player with declining skills "Addition by Subtraction" - and that concept seems to apply here.
Obviously, the Heyward acquisition is the most significant of the front office's additions during the off-season, but there were four others: Jordan Walden (0.9 WAR), Mark Reynolds (0.6 WAR), Dean Anna (0.2 WAR) and Matt Belisle (0.1 WAR).
Total WAR for additions: 8.8 - Add in 1.2 WAR from subtractions - NET GAIN: 10.0 WAR
CUBS - 8 players that spent all or part of the 2014 season on the roster are gone. The most notable subtractions: Jeff Samardzija (1.8 WAR - now a starting pitcher for the White Sox) and former third baseman Luis Valbuena (1.4 WAR) who was traded to the Houston Astros for center fielder Dexter Fowler (1.8 WAR). All told, the Cubs gave up a total WAR of 1.8 in their subtractions.
Additions: The biggest coup in the free agent market - left-handed ace Jon Lester (5.2 WAR) was a step in the right direction for the franchise with the worst pitching in the division last season (707 runs allowed). They also signed former Cards closer Jason Motte (-0.1 WAR) - trying to make a comeback after TJS - and reacquired starting pitcher Jason Hammel (3.1 WAR) - However, the Hammel signing doesn't add to the team's total WAR since his contribution was already factored in from last season. Along with the previously mentioned Fowler, the other additions include catcher Miguel Montero (0.6 WAR) and utility outfielder Chris Denorfia (0.1 WAR).
Total WAR for additions: 7.6 - Lost 1.8 WAR from subtractions - NET GAIN: 5.8 WAR
The rest of the NL Central have either regressed or improved only slightly:
REDS - 11 subtractions and 4 additions equals 1.1 WAR
PIRATES - 11 subtractions and 5 additions equals NEGATIVE 3.9 WAR
BREWERS - 13 subtractions and 4 additions equals NEGATIVE 4.3 WAR
NL Central Projections for 2015 - The "Starting Point" for each team is their Pythagorean Winning Percentage from 2014 (Based on Run Differential). As we can see, four out of the five NL Central teams won more games than their run differential would normally produce (especially the Cardinals):
Team W-L in '14 vs Pythagorean - 2015 W-L Projection
Cardinals 90-72 83-79 93-69
Pirates 88-74 87-75 83-79
Reds 76-86 79-83 80-82
Cubs 73-89 71-91 77-85
Brewers 82-80 80-82 76-86
It looks like it's going to be a tight race for last place in the NL Central in 2015. It seems as though the Cubbies might be able to escape the cellar; but just by the slimmest of margins. Certainly, this isn't what all those delusional Cubs fans are expecting for the upcoming season - not to mention those Las Vegas odds-makers. Sorry. Please accept my condolences for another season of futility.
Maybe 2016 will be better. But don't count on it.
Sunday, January 11, 2015
Pujols Deserves More Gold Glove Credit
For eight straight seasons - from 2004 through 2011 - the National League's best defensive first baseman was a player better known for his offensive prowess: Albert Pujols. Certainly, Pujols was one of the greatest sluggers of all-time during his 11-year reign in St Louis, but he also happened to be the best defensive first baseman the Cardinals have employed since Keith Hernandez was traded away over 30 years ago.
As we have observed time and time again, the best defensive player at any given position is often passed over when the Gold Glove Awards are doled out. Such was the case with Pujols, who received his first Gold Glove in 2006, then another in 2010. That leaves six seasons unaccounted for - when players of lesser defensive prowess managed to claim the award. Understandably, it's difficult for a player to be chosen in their first season at a position; still, the defensive metrics are clearly indicating it was Phat Albert - not Todd Helton, nor Derek Lee, nor Adrian Gonzalez nor Joey Votto - who should have bagged the Gold Glove Award each and every season between '04 and '11.
Pujols' Range Factor and Defensive Runs Saved - Compared to League Avg & GG Winner is listed below for all eight seasons in question:
Yr Pujols' Range Factor vs NL Avg (Run Differential) GG Winner & RF & Run Dif
'04 10.57 vs 9.51 (+15) Todd Helton 10.22 (+10)
'05 11.22 vs 9.65 (+9) Derek Lee 9.38 (-4)
'06 10.55 vs 9.43 (+14) GG
'07 9.84 vs 9.21 (+25) Derek Lee 8.84 (-1)
'08 10.61 vs 9.34 (+18) Adrian Gonzalez 9.12 (+1)
'09 10.84 vs 9.29 (+12) Adrian Gonzalez 9.00 (+12)
'10 10.53 vs 9.23 (-3) GG
'11 10.13 vs 9.33 (+7) Joey Votto 9.54 (+7)
Funny how those Gold Glove Awards work sometimes. 2010 was actually a sub-par defensive season for Pujols, so naturally, he wins the Gold Glove Award. There may have been a better candidate that year, but when you consider the larceny Derek Lee pulled off in two different seasons, we'll let this one slide.
When Albert flew the coop in 2012, his defensive prowess took a bit of a downward spike, which continued over the next two injury-plagued seasons for the now aging first baseman/DH. It's unlikely he'll spend enough quality time at first base over the remainder of his career to qualify for another Gold Glove Award. If he does win another, it's more likely his defensive metrics will be closer to Derek Lee's than the younger version of himself.
Funny how those Gold Glove Awards work sometimes. 2010 was actually a sub-par defensive season for Pujols, so naturally, he wins the Gold Glove Award. There may have been a better candidate that year, but when you consider the larceny Derek Lee pulled off in two different seasons, we'll let this one slide.
When Albert flew the coop in 2012, his defensive prowess took a bit of a downward spike, which continued over the next two injury-plagued seasons for the now aging first baseman/DH. It's unlikely he'll spend enough quality time at first base over the remainder of his career to qualify for another Gold Glove Award. If he does win another, it's more likely his defensive metrics will be closer to Derek Lee's than the younger version of himself.
Thursday, October 30, 2014
The San Francisco Giants Are World Champions Again - But Hardly a Dynasty
With that dramatic Game Seven win over the Kansas City Royals on October 29, 2014, the San Francisco Giants have captured their third World Championship since 2010 - an accomplishment no other National League team has achieved since the St Louis Cardinals did it - coincidentally - in the even-numbered years of 1942, 1944 and 1946.
So, are the Giants now a Dynasty? Strangely enough, after the Boston Red Sox won the 2013 World Series - to capture their third title since 2004 - many baseball experts thought that made them a Dynasty.
Well now, that Dynasty has since been interrupted by their second last-place finish in three seasons over there in the American League East. That's an unprecedented accomplishment, however; no major league team has ever gone from worst-to-first-to-worst before. Kudos to Boston for that bit of baseball history - but that weird three-season span is hardly what a Dynasty is supposed to do.
What about the Giants' Dynasty? The Word Champion 2010 Giants missed the postseason in 2011. The World Champion 2012 Giants not only missed the postseason in 2013, they finished ten games under .500. Now, here they are in 2014 - World Champions again. A Dynasty? In just five years? I believe dynasties need more time to be classified as such. And they need to win more consistently.
Take for example, The New York Yankees - from Babe Ruth-to Joe DiMaggio-to Mickey Mantle. They were The Dynasty. One that lasted for forty-some odd years. Now that's a Dynasty.
Of course, nothing lasts forever. After falling into oblivion for a decade or so, the Yankees won a couple of world championships in the late '70's, then had a remarkable run from 1996 through 2000 - winning of four out of five world championships. They almost made it five out of six - but a blown save by Mariano Rivera in Game Seven of 2001, ended their supremacy. Their gradual decline continued with a strange six-game loss to the Florida Marlins in the 2003 World Series, followed by an unprecedented loss to the Red Sox in the 2004 ALCS - blowing a three games to none series lead.
Of course, the Yankees were still a very good team and they recovered nicely in 2009, for another World Series title. But age and some questionable free agent signings have turned them into an ordinary team - possibly a playoff contender in 2015 - but probably not - even with that huge payroll.
The recent success of the Giants has been remarkable, but let's look at the big picture - the current millennium - and compare the overall performance of the Giants vs their closest rivals - the St Louis Cardinals.
Postseason Appearances: St Louis 11 - San Francisco 6
Division Titles: St Louis 8 - San Francisco 5
NLCS Appearances: St Louis 9 - San Francisco 4
World Series Appearances: St Louis 4 - San Francisco 4
World Series Championships: St Louis 2 - San Francisco 3
Obviously, when the Giants qualify for postseason play, they usually go very deep. They've been unbeatable every time they play in a National League Championship Series (4 for 4) - and they've victimized the Cardinals 3 out of those 4 times.
Whenever the Cardinals don't have to play the Giants in the NLCS, they've done well - winning 4 out of 6. Obviously, if this franchise is going to be perceived as better than their rivals, they've got to beat them in head-to-head postseason competition - and sooner or later, the Giants are bound to qualify for postseason play in an odd-numbered year.
Consistency has been the Cardinals' trademark over this fifteen season span. Not only do they usually qualify for postseason play, they've only had one sub-.500 season over that time (in '07 - as defending World Series Champions).
The Giants, on the other hand, had a miserable four-season sub-.500 stretch ('05 - '08) and even had one as defending World Series Champions, themselves (in 2013). Right in the middle of their Dynasty.
Will they somehow manage to finish below .500 in 2015 - or will they make it back to the postseason again? Before they can legitimately be called a Dynasty, they've got to overcome the odd-numbered year obstacle. Either that, or repeat their three in five trick one more time. That was quite impressive - we all must admit.
If nothing else, the Giants could be on the verge of becoming a Dynasty, but then again, so could the Cardinals.
So, are the Giants now a Dynasty? Strangely enough, after the Boston Red Sox won the 2013 World Series - to capture their third title since 2004 - many baseball experts thought that made them a Dynasty.
Well now, that Dynasty has since been interrupted by their second last-place finish in three seasons over there in the American League East. That's an unprecedented accomplishment, however; no major league team has ever gone from worst-to-first-to-worst before. Kudos to Boston for that bit of baseball history - but that weird three-season span is hardly what a Dynasty is supposed to do.
What about the Giants' Dynasty? The Word Champion 2010 Giants missed the postseason in 2011. The World Champion 2012 Giants not only missed the postseason in 2013, they finished ten games under .500. Now, here they are in 2014 - World Champions again. A Dynasty? In just five years? I believe dynasties need more time to be classified as such. And they need to win more consistently.
Take for example, The New York Yankees - from Babe Ruth-to Joe DiMaggio-to Mickey Mantle. They were The Dynasty. One that lasted for forty-some odd years. Now that's a Dynasty.
Of course, nothing lasts forever. After falling into oblivion for a decade or so, the Yankees won a couple of world championships in the late '70's, then had a remarkable run from 1996 through 2000 - winning of four out of five world championships. They almost made it five out of six - but a blown save by Mariano Rivera in Game Seven of 2001, ended their supremacy. Their gradual decline continued with a strange six-game loss to the Florida Marlins in the 2003 World Series, followed by an unprecedented loss to the Red Sox in the 2004 ALCS - blowing a three games to none series lead.
Of course, the Yankees were still a very good team and they recovered nicely in 2009, for another World Series title. But age and some questionable free agent signings have turned them into an ordinary team - possibly a playoff contender in 2015 - but probably not - even with that huge payroll.
The recent success of the Giants has been remarkable, but let's look at the big picture - the current millennium - and compare the overall performance of the Giants vs their closest rivals - the St Louis Cardinals.
Postseason Appearances: St Louis 11 - San Francisco 6
Division Titles: St Louis 8 - San Francisco 5
NLCS Appearances: St Louis 9 - San Francisco 4
World Series Appearances: St Louis 4 - San Francisco 4
World Series Championships: St Louis 2 - San Francisco 3
Obviously, when the Giants qualify for postseason play, they usually go very deep. They've been unbeatable every time they play in a National League Championship Series (4 for 4) - and they've victimized the Cardinals 3 out of those 4 times.
Whenever the Cardinals don't have to play the Giants in the NLCS, they've done well - winning 4 out of 6. Obviously, if this franchise is going to be perceived as better than their rivals, they've got to beat them in head-to-head postseason competition - and sooner or later, the Giants are bound to qualify for postseason play in an odd-numbered year.
Consistency has been the Cardinals' trademark over this fifteen season span. Not only do they usually qualify for postseason play, they've only had one sub-.500 season over that time (in '07 - as defending World Series Champions).
The Giants, on the other hand, had a miserable four-season sub-.500 stretch ('05 - '08) and even had one as defending World Series Champions, themselves (in 2013). Right in the middle of their Dynasty.
Will they somehow manage to finish below .500 in 2015 - or will they make it back to the postseason again? Before they can legitimately be called a Dynasty, they've got to overcome the odd-numbered year obstacle. Either that, or repeat their three in five trick one more time. That was quite impressive - we all must admit.
If nothing else, the Giants could be on the verge of becoming a Dynasty, but then again, so could the Cardinals.
Tuesday, October 28, 2014
October 28, 2011 - The St Louis Cardinals are World Champions!
Friday, October 28, 2011 - World Series - Game Seven vs Texas Rangers at Busch Stadium III - Attendance: 47,399 - Starting Pitchers: Chris Carpenter vs Matt Harrison
After the Game Six miracle finish, the Cardinals could hardly wait to get back in action again - especially with their ace - Chris Carpenter - on the mound again. Prior to the start of this game, manager Tony LaRussa gave his players a bit of a motivational speech - making sure they were focused on the business at hand: Winning Game Seven and not dwelling on what transpired the previous night.
In the other clubhouse, Texas manager Ron Washington tried to rally his team, after that devastating Game Six loss, with a humorous, profanity-laced monologue designed to erase the memory of what happened - so they could focus on the business at hand: Trying to avoid losing Game Seven.
The Rangers got off to a fast start off Carpenter - when Ian Kinsler started the game with a single to left field. Then, with Elvis Andrus batting, Cards catcher Yadier Molina quickly noticed that Kinsler had strayed too far off the bag for his own good. A snap throw to Pujols ended Kinsler's brief stint on the bases. However, Carpenter was still having trouble with his command, as Andrus drew a base on balls - then back-to-back doubles by Josh Hamilton and Michael Young put Carpenter and the Cardinals in a 2-0 hole.
However, as quickly as Carpenter found himself in trouble, he found a way out - first, by striking out the dangerous Adrian Beltre, then by retiring Nelson Cruz on a ground ball to the legendary David Freese.
Although the Rangers had a couple of runs on the board, they certainly felt like they'd missed a chance for a really big inning - much like what happened the previous night - when they had so many chances to score runs in bunches - but just couldn't get the big hit when they needed it.
Little did they know, those two first-inning runs would be the extent of their offensive production in Game Seven.
The Cardinals evened the score in their half of the first. After a pair of two-out walks to Albert Pujols and Lance Berkman - David Freese did it again - sending the crowd into an early frenzy with a two-run double to left field - giving him five RBI in his last three trips to the plate - all extra base hits: Triple, home run and a double.
With the injured Matt Holliday out of the lineup, his replacement - Allen Craig - put the Cardinals on top to stay with a third-inning solo home run to right field: 3-2.
Two innings later, facing reliever Scott Feldman, Craig drew a one-out walk to start a two-run rally. Next up - Pujols - was hit by a pitch - putting runners on first and second for Berkman - who grounded out to the right side, advancing the runners to second and third. Feldman wanted no part of Freese, so he was given an intentional walk - to load the bases. Unfortunately for Feldman, he then issued an unintentional walk to Molina, forcing in Craig from third - scoring the fourth run of the game for St Louis.
In a desperate attempt to stop the inevitable, Washington brought in C.J. Wilson from the bullpen to face Rafael Furcal - but his first pitch was nowhere near the plate - instead,hitting Furcal on the leg - bringing home Wilson's future teammate Pujols with the fifth run of the game for the Redbirds.
It was still a 5-2 Cardinal lead when David Murphy began the seventh-inning with a ground-rule double off a tiring Carpenter. LaRussa made his first call to the bullpen - bringing in Arthur Rhodes to pitch to Yorvit Torrealba - as Carpenter triumphantly exited to a rousing standing ovation.
Rhodes got his man, giving way to Octavio Dotel, who retired both Kinsler and Andrus to end the threat.
Leading off the bottom of the seventh - facing reliever Mike Adams - was the great Albert Pujols - making his final plate appearance in a Cardinal uniform. After another standing ovation, an emotional Pujols swung at all five pitches thrown to him - striking out on the last one. Most of the fans at the ballpark probably expected to see Pujols return - certain their hero would be content to stay loyal to the only franchise he had ever been associated with. The fact that he left for more money than the Cardinals were willing to pay still bothers many fans - to the point of absurdity. Get over it. Just be thankful for the 11 Hall of Fame-caliber seasons he had in St Louis - and for the two World Series championships that never would have happened without his presence in the lineup. For example: This one.
After Albert retreated back to the dugout, Berkman reached on an infield hit to the shortstop - bringing Freese to the plate - and naturally, he was given nothing to hit - so he walked again. Molina then drove in the sixth and final run of the game - scoring Berkman from second on a base hit to center.
Meanwhile, Lance Lynn - who was hit so hard in Game Six - pitched a perfect eighth-inning - setting the stage for Jason Motte to close out this championship season with a flourish. He too, was perfect - retiring the last Ranger batter to get on base - Murphy - who led-off the seventh-inning with a double.
This time, Murphy's line drive to left was hauled in by a back-peddling Allen Craig - to cap off this improbable championship season for the Cardinals. As FOX broadcaster Joe Buck proclaimed, "What a team! What a ride! The St Louis Cardinals are World Champions!"
To no one's surprise, David Freese was voted World Series Most Valuable Player - but this was truly a team effort. Offensively, five players had MVP-worthy performances:
Berkman - .423/.516/.577 - 1 HR - 5 RBI
Craig - .263/.417/.737 - 3 HR - 5 RBI
Freese - .348/.464/.696 - 1 HR - 7 RBI
Molina - .333/.414/.417 - 0 HR - 9 RBI
Pujols - .240/.424/.640 - 3 HR - 6 RBI
Pitching standouts:
Carpenter - 2-0 - 19.0 IP - 2.84 ERA
Garcia - 10.0 IP - 1.80 ERA
Rhodes - 1.0 IP - 0.00 ERA
Rzepczynski - 2.2 IP - 0.00 ERA
Westbrook - 1-0 - 2.0 IP - 0.00 ERA
Had the Rangers managed to win the World Series, Mike Napoli would have surely been MVP with these numbers: .350/.464/.700 - 2 HR - 10 RBI
Interestingly, in the stolen base department, the Cardinals were 0 for 3 - the Rangers were 1 for 3 (Kinsler's ninth-inning theft of second base in Game Two - which helped Texas win by a 2-1 score).
Otherwise, Freese's Game Six walk-off home run would have been a World Series ending walk-off home run - joining Bill Mazeroski and Joe Carter in that elite category.
Finally, this would prove to be LaRussa's last game as manager of the St Louis Cardinals. He was at the helm for the greatest resurgence in franchise history - which has continued with his successor - the most frequently second-guessed manager in franchise history - Mike Matheny - at the helm.
2015 should be an interesting and challenging season - and since it's an odd-numbered year...
After the Game Six miracle finish, the Cardinals could hardly wait to get back in action again - especially with their ace - Chris Carpenter - on the mound again. Prior to the start of this game, manager Tony LaRussa gave his players a bit of a motivational speech - making sure they were focused on the business at hand: Winning Game Seven and not dwelling on what transpired the previous night.
In the other clubhouse, Texas manager Ron Washington tried to rally his team, after that devastating Game Six loss, with a humorous, profanity-laced monologue designed to erase the memory of what happened - so they could focus on the business at hand: Trying to avoid losing Game Seven.
The Rangers got off to a fast start off Carpenter - when Ian Kinsler started the game with a single to left field. Then, with Elvis Andrus batting, Cards catcher Yadier Molina quickly noticed that Kinsler had strayed too far off the bag for his own good. A snap throw to Pujols ended Kinsler's brief stint on the bases. However, Carpenter was still having trouble with his command, as Andrus drew a base on balls - then back-to-back doubles by Josh Hamilton and Michael Young put Carpenter and the Cardinals in a 2-0 hole.
However, as quickly as Carpenter found himself in trouble, he found a way out - first, by striking out the dangerous Adrian Beltre, then by retiring Nelson Cruz on a ground ball to the legendary David Freese.
Although the Rangers had a couple of runs on the board, they certainly felt like they'd missed a chance for a really big inning - much like what happened the previous night - when they had so many chances to score runs in bunches - but just couldn't get the big hit when they needed it.
Little did they know, those two first-inning runs would be the extent of their offensive production in Game Seven.
The Cardinals evened the score in their half of the first. After a pair of two-out walks to Albert Pujols and Lance Berkman - David Freese did it again - sending the crowd into an early frenzy with a two-run double to left field - giving him five RBI in his last three trips to the plate - all extra base hits: Triple, home run and a double.
With the injured Matt Holliday out of the lineup, his replacement - Allen Craig - put the Cardinals on top to stay with a third-inning solo home run to right field: 3-2.
Two innings later, facing reliever Scott Feldman, Craig drew a one-out walk to start a two-run rally. Next up - Pujols - was hit by a pitch - putting runners on first and second for Berkman - who grounded out to the right side, advancing the runners to second and third. Feldman wanted no part of Freese, so he was given an intentional walk - to load the bases. Unfortunately for Feldman, he then issued an unintentional walk to Molina, forcing in Craig from third - scoring the fourth run of the game for St Louis.
In a desperate attempt to stop the inevitable, Washington brought in C.J. Wilson from the bullpen to face Rafael Furcal - but his first pitch was nowhere near the plate - instead,hitting Furcal on the leg - bringing home Wilson's future teammate Pujols with the fifth run of the game for the Redbirds.
It was still a 5-2 Cardinal lead when David Murphy began the seventh-inning with a ground-rule double off a tiring Carpenter. LaRussa made his first call to the bullpen - bringing in Arthur Rhodes to pitch to Yorvit Torrealba - as Carpenter triumphantly exited to a rousing standing ovation.
Rhodes got his man, giving way to Octavio Dotel, who retired both Kinsler and Andrus to end the threat.
Leading off the bottom of the seventh - facing reliever Mike Adams - was the great Albert Pujols - making his final plate appearance in a Cardinal uniform. After another standing ovation, an emotional Pujols swung at all five pitches thrown to him - striking out on the last one. Most of the fans at the ballpark probably expected to see Pujols return - certain their hero would be content to stay loyal to the only franchise he had ever been associated with. The fact that he left for more money than the Cardinals were willing to pay still bothers many fans - to the point of absurdity. Get over it. Just be thankful for the 11 Hall of Fame-caliber seasons he had in St Louis - and for the two World Series championships that never would have happened without his presence in the lineup. For example: This one.
After Albert retreated back to the dugout, Berkman reached on an infield hit to the shortstop - bringing Freese to the plate - and naturally, he was given nothing to hit - so he walked again. Molina then drove in the sixth and final run of the game - scoring Berkman from second on a base hit to center.
Meanwhile, Lance Lynn - who was hit so hard in Game Six - pitched a perfect eighth-inning - setting the stage for Jason Motte to close out this championship season with a flourish. He too, was perfect - retiring the last Ranger batter to get on base - Murphy - who led-off the seventh-inning with a double.
This time, Murphy's line drive to left was hauled in by a back-peddling Allen Craig - to cap off this improbable championship season for the Cardinals. As FOX broadcaster Joe Buck proclaimed, "What a team! What a ride! The St Louis Cardinals are World Champions!"
To no one's surprise, David Freese was voted World Series Most Valuable Player - but this was truly a team effort. Offensively, five players had MVP-worthy performances:
Berkman - .423/.516/.577 - 1 HR - 5 RBI
Craig - .263/.417/.737 - 3 HR - 5 RBI
Freese - .348/.464/.696 - 1 HR - 7 RBI
Molina - .333/.414/.417 - 0 HR - 9 RBI
Pujols - .240/.424/.640 - 3 HR - 6 RBI
Pitching standouts:
Carpenter - 2-0 - 19.0 IP - 2.84 ERA
Garcia - 10.0 IP - 1.80 ERA
Rhodes - 1.0 IP - 0.00 ERA
Rzepczynski - 2.2 IP - 0.00 ERA
Westbrook - 1-0 - 2.0 IP - 0.00 ERA
Had the Rangers managed to win the World Series, Mike Napoli would have surely been MVP with these numbers: .350/.464/.700 - 2 HR - 10 RBI
Interestingly, in the stolen base department, the Cardinals were 0 for 3 - the Rangers were 1 for 3 (Kinsler's ninth-inning theft of second base in Game Two - which helped Texas win by a 2-1 score).
Otherwise, Freese's Game Six walk-off home run would have been a World Series ending walk-off home run - joining Bill Mazeroski and Joe Carter in that elite category.
Finally, this would prove to be LaRussa's last game as manager of the St Louis Cardinals. He was at the helm for the greatest resurgence in franchise history - which has continued with his successor - the most frequently second-guessed manager in franchise history - Mike Matheny - at the helm.
2015 should be an interesting and challenging season - and since it's an odd-numbered year...
Monday, October 27, 2014
October 27, 2011 - World Series - Game Six: The David Freese Game
Thursday, October 27, 2011 - World Series - Game Six vs Texas Rangers at Busch Stadium III - Attendance: 47,325 - Starting Pitchers: Jaime Garcia vs Colby Lewis
It was by far, the most thrilling World Series game in franchise history.
On two separate occasions, the Cardinals were down to their last strike - trailing the Texas Rangers by two runs - who were, conversely, one strike away from their first world championship in franchise history - on two separate occasions.
Somehow, on two separate occasions, the Cardinals tied the game.
Finally, in the eleventh-inning, David Freese - who got the big two-out two-run-triple in the ninth-inning to send the game into extra innings - won it on the sixth pitch of the at bat - with a lead-off home run to straight-away center field.
The final score: St Louis 10 - Texas 9.
Four hours and thirty-three minutes earlier, Cardinal starter Jaime Garcia began the night by walking the first batter of the game - Ian Kinsler - who was in motion when Elvis Andrus singled to left - allowing Kinsler to easily reach third. Josh Hamilton then scored Kinsler while Andrus took third on his single to right field.
Just like that, it was 1-0, Texas - with runners on the corners and still nobody out. The Rangers appeared to be on the verge of a big inning, with the heart of their lineup lurking. However, Garcia struck out both Michael Young and Adrian Beltre - then retired Nelson Cruz on a grounder to third baseman David Freese, who got the force out at second.
No doubt feeling a bit reprieved, the Cardinals responded immediately, in the bottom of the first - facing Texas starter Colby Lewis. A one-out single by Skip Schumaker preceded Lance Berkman's two-out two-run home run to left center field. St Louis now held a short-lived 2-1 lead.
In the second-inning, a lead-off walk to Mike Napoli preceded Craig Gentry's single to left field. However, Lewis, attempting to lay down a sacrifice bunt, hit the ball too hard down the third base line. Freese grabbed it, stepped on third then threw to shortstop Rafael Furcal - too late to force Gentry at second - but Furcal's relay throw to second baseman Nick Punto, covering first, retired the lumbering Lewis to complete the rare 5-6-4 double play. I would venture to guess that's the first one of its kind in World Series history (I would also venture to guess nobody's going to research that one).
Just when it appeared the Cardinals might be able to avoid any further trouble, Kinsler's two-out ground-rule double tied the game: 2-2.
After the Cardinals failed to score in their half of the second, Garcia pitched a scoreless third-inning, followed by another scoreless inning by Lewis.
Following that brief intermission, action resumed with a new pitcher on the mound for the Cardinals - Fernando Salas - to begin the fourth-inning. The first batter - Cruz - hit a little pop fly to short left field, which Matt Holliday dropped - allowing Cruz to reach second. Napoli then gave the Rangers a 3-2 lead with an RBI single to right field. Salas then pitched out of further trouble - allowing just the one unearned run to score.
Returning the favor, as the Cardinals took their turn at bat in the bottom of the fourth - first baseman Young booted Berkman's grounder - then Holliday drew a base on balls - giving Freese a chance to do some damage with runners on first and second. His slow roller to second resulted in a force out, as Berkman advanced to third while a frustrated Freese was safe at first.
Berkman then scored the tying run on Yadier Molina's slow roller to third: 3-3.
The low point in the game for David Freese came in the fifth-inning. Josh Hamilton lifted a very high pop fly which Freese camped under - but apparently wasn't quite sure about actually "catching". As he stuck his glove high above his head, millions of Cardinal fans watching on television were no doubt screaming, "Use two hands!" Sure enough, the ball bounced off the heel of his glove as his right hand dangled uselessly to his side - unable to grab the ball as it fell to earth - especially since he had his eyes closed at the moment of ball-to-glove impact. Freese would later say that was the most embarrassing moment of his life.
Michael Young then promptly scored Hamilton on a double to left field - but once again, the Rangers failed to capitalize on a potentially big inning. This one ended when Colby Lewis was allowed to hit for himself - with the bases loaded - and struck out to end the inning.
It was still a 4-3 Texas lead as the Cardinals batted in the sixth-inning. With one out, Berkman reached on an infield hit to third. Holliday then reached when first baseman Young dropped a throw - his second error of the game. Freese began his slow resurrection in this incredible game by drawing a base on balls - to load the bases.
At this time, manager Ron Washington - who just an inning earlier, allowed Lewis to hit for himself with the bases loaded - decided to remove his starter - bringing in Alexi Ogando to face Molina - who also waked - forcing in the tying run - Berkman.
What happened next appeared to be a calamity for the Redbirds - but in retrospect, was a blessing. Catcher Mike Napoli caught Holliday napping at third base - and picked him off. In his desperate attempt to reach the bag before the tag could be applied, Holliday injured his hand - and would be sidelined for the rest of the game - and Series, for that matter. Allen Craig would be his replacement.
In the meantime, after the Holliday pick-off, Ogando celebrated by throwing a wild pitch to Nick Punto - advancing the runners - Molina and Freese - to second and third. Punto walked to load the bases once again - prompting another pitching change.
Entering the game was the goofy but talented Derek Holland - who pitched so brilliantly for the Rangers in his Game Four start - limiting the Cardinals to just two hits for 8.1 innings in the Rangers' 4-0 win. He ended the threat by getting Jon Jay on an easy ground ball, which Holland snared and carefully tossed to Young to retire the side.
The 4-4 tie didn't last long. Facing Lance Lynn, the Rangers started the seventh-inning with back-to-back home runs by Beltre and Cruz. Texas added another run on an Ian Kinsler RBI single - to build an imposing 7-4 lead.
It was still 7-4 when Allen Craig - batting in place of the injured Holliday - homered with one out and nobody on in the eighth. However, the Cards could score no more - eventually leaving the bases loaded after Holland got Furcal on an infield ground out to preserve the two-run lead.
After Texas failed to add to their two-run lead in the top of the ninth-inning, manager Washington brought Neftali Feliz in to close it out. He struck out Ryan Theriot - but Pujols refused to go quietly - doubling, deep to center field. Berkman patiently drew a walk - giving Allen Craig - who homered in the eighth-inning, the chance to end it with a walk-off home run. Instead, he looked at a called third strike.
That brought David Freese to the plate - representing the last chance for the Cardinals to salvage - not only the game - but the entire Series. He quickly found himself in a one-ball-two-strike hole - but then launched an outside-corner fastball deep to right field, where Nelson Cruz was positioned poorly - not respecting the opposite-field power of Freese and not positioned deep enough to avoid the ball sailing over his head - bouncing off the base of the wall, allowing both runners to score, as an exuberant Freese slid safely into third.
With a chance to win it, Molina lined the ball hard to right field - but this time Cruz was able to catch it - to retire the side.
Freese's heroics seemed likely to be a brief footnote in Cardinal baseball lore, however - after Josh Hamilton's two-run tenth-inning home run off Jason Motte gave Texas a two-run lead again: 9-7.
With lefty reliever Darren Oliver now on the mound for Texas, both Daniel Descalso and Jon Jay singled to begin the tenth-inning for St Louis. Then, Kyle Lohse - pinch hitting for Edwin Jackson, who was pinch hitting for Motte - advanced the runners to second and third with a good sacrifice bunt.
Scott Feldman was then summoned from the Rangers' bullpen to face Theriot - and he retired him on a ground out to third - as Descalso scored the first run of the inning. After an intentional walk to Pujols - Berkman - down to his last strike - tied the game yet again with a line drive single to center: 9-9.
After Jake Westbrook pitched a scoreless inning of relief for the Redbirds, the eighth pitcher of the game for Texas - Mark Lowe - was brought in to face David Freese, leading-off the bottom of the eleventh.
On a full-count - the sixth pitch of the at bat - Freese hit one deep to center field, giving FOX broadcaster Joe Buck the opportunity to borrow his dad's famous World Series call of Kirby Puckett's walk-off Game Six home run from '91: "We will...see you tomorrow night!"
On the five year anniversary of the Cardinals' World Series Game Five win over the Detroit Tigers, which gave the franchise it first world championship since 1982 - Freese's heroics ensured a Game Seven would be played in 2011. And of course, the Rangers never had a chance.
It was by far, the most thrilling World Series game in franchise history.
On two separate occasions, the Cardinals were down to their last strike - trailing the Texas Rangers by two runs - who were, conversely, one strike away from their first world championship in franchise history - on two separate occasions.
Somehow, on two separate occasions, the Cardinals tied the game.
Finally, in the eleventh-inning, David Freese - who got the big two-out two-run-triple in the ninth-inning to send the game into extra innings - won it on the sixth pitch of the at bat - with a lead-off home run to straight-away center field.
The final score: St Louis 10 - Texas 9.
Four hours and thirty-three minutes earlier, Cardinal starter Jaime Garcia began the night by walking the first batter of the game - Ian Kinsler - who was in motion when Elvis Andrus singled to left - allowing Kinsler to easily reach third. Josh Hamilton then scored Kinsler while Andrus took third on his single to right field.
Just like that, it was 1-0, Texas - with runners on the corners and still nobody out. The Rangers appeared to be on the verge of a big inning, with the heart of their lineup lurking. However, Garcia struck out both Michael Young and Adrian Beltre - then retired Nelson Cruz on a grounder to third baseman David Freese, who got the force out at second.
No doubt feeling a bit reprieved, the Cardinals responded immediately, in the bottom of the first - facing Texas starter Colby Lewis. A one-out single by Skip Schumaker preceded Lance Berkman's two-out two-run home run to left center field. St Louis now held a short-lived 2-1 lead.
In the second-inning, a lead-off walk to Mike Napoli preceded Craig Gentry's single to left field. However, Lewis, attempting to lay down a sacrifice bunt, hit the ball too hard down the third base line. Freese grabbed it, stepped on third then threw to shortstop Rafael Furcal - too late to force Gentry at second - but Furcal's relay throw to second baseman Nick Punto, covering first, retired the lumbering Lewis to complete the rare 5-6-4 double play. I would venture to guess that's the first one of its kind in World Series history (I would also venture to guess nobody's going to research that one).
Just when it appeared the Cardinals might be able to avoid any further trouble, Kinsler's two-out ground-rule double tied the game: 2-2.
After the Cardinals failed to score in their half of the second, Garcia pitched a scoreless third-inning, followed by another scoreless inning by Lewis.
Following that brief intermission, action resumed with a new pitcher on the mound for the Cardinals - Fernando Salas - to begin the fourth-inning. The first batter - Cruz - hit a little pop fly to short left field, which Matt Holliday dropped - allowing Cruz to reach second. Napoli then gave the Rangers a 3-2 lead with an RBI single to right field. Salas then pitched out of further trouble - allowing just the one unearned run to score.
Returning the favor, as the Cardinals took their turn at bat in the bottom of the fourth - first baseman Young booted Berkman's grounder - then Holliday drew a base on balls - giving Freese a chance to do some damage with runners on first and second. His slow roller to second resulted in a force out, as Berkman advanced to third while a frustrated Freese was safe at first.
Berkman then scored the tying run on Yadier Molina's slow roller to third: 3-3.
The low point in the game for David Freese came in the fifth-inning. Josh Hamilton lifted a very high pop fly which Freese camped under - but apparently wasn't quite sure about actually "catching". As he stuck his glove high above his head, millions of Cardinal fans watching on television were no doubt screaming, "Use two hands!" Sure enough, the ball bounced off the heel of his glove as his right hand dangled uselessly to his side - unable to grab the ball as it fell to earth - especially since he had his eyes closed at the moment of ball-to-glove impact. Freese would later say that was the most embarrassing moment of his life.
Michael Young then promptly scored Hamilton on a double to left field - but once again, the Rangers failed to capitalize on a potentially big inning. This one ended when Colby Lewis was allowed to hit for himself - with the bases loaded - and struck out to end the inning.
It was still a 4-3 Texas lead as the Cardinals batted in the sixth-inning. With one out, Berkman reached on an infield hit to third. Holliday then reached when first baseman Young dropped a throw - his second error of the game. Freese began his slow resurrection in this incredible game by drawing a base on balls - to load the bases.
At this time, manager Ron Washington - who just an inning earlier, allowed Lewis to hit for himself with the bases loaded - decided to remove his starter - bringing in Alexi Ogando to face Molina - who also waked - forcing in the tying run - Berkman.
What happened next appeared to be a calamity for the Redbirds - but in retrospect, was a blessing. Catcher Mike Napoli caught Holliday napping at third base - and picked him off. In his desperate attempt to reach the bag before the tag could be applied, Holliday injured his hand - and would be sidelined for the rest of the game - and Series, for that matter. Allen Craig would be his replacement.
In the meantime, after the Holliday pick-off, Ogando celebrated by throwing a wild pitch to Nick Punto - advancing the runners - Molina and Freese - to second and third. Punto walked to load the bases once again - prompting another pitching change.
Entering the game was the goofy but talented Derek Holland - who pitched so brilliantly for the Rangers in his Game Four start - limiting the Cardinals to just two hits for 8.1 innings in the Rangers' 4-0 win. He ended the threat by getting Jon Jay on an easy ground ball, which Holland snared and carefully tossed to Young to retire the side.
The 4-4 tie didn't last long. Facing Lance Lynn, the Rangers started the seventh-inning with back-to-back home runs by Beltre and Cruz. Texas added another run on an Ian Kinsler RBI single - to build an imposing 7-4 lead.
It was still 7-4 when Allen Craig - batting in place of the injured Holliday - homered with one out and nobody on in the eighth. However, the Cards could score no more - eventually leaving the bases loaded after Holland got Furcal on an infield ground out to preserve the two-run lead.
After Texas failed to add to their two-run lead in the top of the ninth-inning, manager Washington brought Neftali Feliz in to close it out. He struck out Ryan Theriot - but Pujols refused to go quietly - doubling, deep to center field. Berkman patiently drew a walk - giving Allen Craig - who homered in the eighth-inning, the chance to end it with a walk-off home run. Instead, he looked at a called third strike.
That brought David Freese to the plate - representing the last chance for the Cardinals to salvage - not only the game - but the entire Series. He quickly found himself in a one-ball-two-strike hole - but then launched an outside-corner fastball deep to right field, where Nelson Cruz was positioned poorly - not respecting the opposite-field power of Freese and not positioned deep enough to avoid the ball sailing over his head - bouncing off the base of the wall, allowing both runners to score, as an exuberant Freese slid safely into third.
With a chance to win it, Molina lined the ball hard to right field - but this time Cruz was able to catch it - to retire the side.
Freese's heroics seemed likely to be a brief footnote in Cardinal baseball lore, however - after Josh Hamilton's two-run tenth-inning home run off Jason Motte gave Texas a two-run lead again: 9-7.
With lefty reliever Darren Oliver now on the mound for Texas, both Daniel Descalso and Jon Jay singled to begin the tenth-inning for St Louis. Then, Kyle Lohse - pinch hitting for Edwin Jackson, who was pinch hitting for Motte - advanced the runners to second and third with a good sacrifice bunt.
Scott Feldman was then summoned from the Rangers' bullpen to face Theriot - and he retired him on a ground out to third - as Descalso scored the first run of the inning. After an intentional walk to Pujols - Berkman - down to his last strike - tied the game yet again with a line drive single to center: 9-9.
After Jake Westbrook pitched a scoreless inning of relief for the Redbirds, the eighth pitcher of the game for Texas - Mark Lowe - was brought in to face David Freese, leading-off the bottom of the eleventh.
On a full-count - the sixth pitch of the at bat - Freese hit one deep to center field, giving FOX broadcaster Joe Buck the opportunity to borrow his dad's famous World Series call of Kirby Puckett's walk-off Game Six home run from '91: "We will...see you tomorrow night!"
On the five year anniversary of the Cardinals' World Series Game Five win over the Detroit Tigers, which gave the franchise it first world championship since 1982 - Freese's heroics ensured a Game Seven would be played in 2011. And of course, the Rangers never had a chance.
Sunday, October 26, 2014
October 26, 2006 - Come-From-Behind Game 4 World Series Win Over Tigers
Thursday, October 26, 2006 - World Series - Game Four vs Detroit Tigers at Busch Stadium III - Starting Pitchers: Jeff Suppan vs Jeremy Bonderman - Attendance: 46,470
Game Four had been scheduled to be played on Wednesday, but was postponed, due to rain.
The Cardinals used timely hitting, good defense and capitalized on another inexplicably wild throw by Tigers' pitching to earn a pivotal come-from-behind World Series Game Four win - by a final score of 5-4. This win gives the Redbirds a formidable three games to one advantage over the bumbling Tigers, who - thanks to one enormous throwing error - managed to cough up two more unearned runs en route to blowing an early 3-0 lead.
After a rocky start - giving up three runs after three-innings - Jeff Suppan kept the Tigers off the board over his final three innings of work to give his teammates a chance to get back in the game.
Trailing 3-0 in the third-inning, the Cardinals broke through off Detroit starter Jeremy Bonderman - on a one-out single by Aaron Miles, a stolen base, and a two-out RBI double by David Eckstein - one of three doubles the World Series MVP would collect on the night.
The Cardinals used a pair of doubles in the fourth-inning by Scott Rolen and Yadier Molina to pull within one run - down 3-2.
However, in the sixth-inning Rolen's lead-off double - his second of the game - was wasted when reliever Fernando Rodney entered the game to strike out both Miles and pinch hitter John Rodriguez - stranding Rolen at third.
Rodney's only problem seemed to be what to do with any balls hit back to the mound - as we would see once again in the seventh-inning.
Still trailing 3-2, Eckstein led-off with another double, prompting manager Tony LaRussa to have pinch hitter So Taguchi - batting for Chris Duncan - lay down a sacrifice bunt - preferably one the pitcher would have to field. Sure enough, after fielding the bunt, Rodney somehow managed to throw the ball over the first baseman's head - allowing Eckstein to score the tying (unearned) run, as Taguchi advanced to second - representing the go-ahead (unearned) run.
After an intentional walk to Pujols, Rodney struck out both Edmonds and Rolen - but Preston Wilson came up with the big hit - a run-scoring single to left field. Left fielder Craig Monroe had no shot at nailing Taguchi at home, but Pujols was an easy out trying to take third. However, the Cardinals had finally taken a 4-3 lead - although it would be a short-lived lead.
With Braden Looper now pitching for the Cardinals to start the eighth-inning, Ivan Rodriguez greeted him with a lead-off double - then advanced to third on Placido Polanco's ground-out to the second baseman. That prompted LaRussa to bring in his rookie closer - Adam Wainwright - to get out of the jam. However, the first batter he faced - Brandon Inge - tied the game with a double to center field.
Suddenly, the game was very much in jeopardy. Detroit could take the lead again with another base hit, however, Wainwright struck out pinch hitter Alexis Gomez as well as Curtis Granderson, to end the threat.
With Joel Zumaya now pitching for the Tigers, Molina drew a lead-off walk to start the home half of the eighth. Miles then forced Yadi at second on a grounder to third base. Then, in a bizarre play, Zumaya struck out Encarnacion on a wild pitch, advancing Miles to second - although catcher Rodriguez was able to retrieve the ball in time to retire the batter at first base.
Next up - Eckstein - hit a line drive to left center field which probably should have been caught by Granderson - but the Tigers' center fielder slipped on the wet outfield grass, as the ball sailed over his head - good for another double, and good for his second RBI of the game. That was the only run in the inning, but it proved to be all that was necessary to take Game Four by a 5-4 final score.
Despite blowing the save, Wainwright pitched a perfect ninth to preserve his first career postseason win - and put the Redbirds on the cusp of what seemed like an impossible World Series championship just one short month ago.
In baseball, one month can bring about great change. A little rain can go a long way, too.
Game Four had been scheduled to be played on Wednesday, but was postponed, due to rain.
The Cardinals used timely hitting, good defense and capitalized on another inexplicably wild throw by Tigers' pitching to earn a pivotal come-from-behind World Series Game Four win - by a final score of 5-4. This win gives the Redbirds a formidable three games to one advantage over the bumbling Tigers, who - thanks to one enormous throwing error - managed to cough up two more unearned runs en route to blowing an early 3-0 lead.
After a rocky start - giving up three runs after three-innings - Jeff Suppan kept the Tigers off the board over his final three innings of work to give his teammates a chance to get back in the game.
Trailing 3-0 in the third-inning, the Cardinals broke through off Detroit starter Jeremy Bonderman - on a one-out single by Aaron Miles, a stolen base, and a two-out RBI double by David Eckstein - one of three doubles the World Series MVP would collect on the night.
The Cardinals used a pair of doubles in the fourth-inning by Scott Rolen and Yadier Molina to pull within one run - down 3-2.
However, in the sixth-inning Rolen's lead-off double - his second of the game - was wasted when reliever Fernando Rodney entered the game to strike out both Miles and pinch hitter John Rodriguez - stranding Rolen at third.
Rodney's only problem seemed to be what to do with any balls hit back to the mound - as we would see once again in the seventh-inning.
Still trailing 3-2, Eckstein led-off with another double, prompting manager Tony LaRussa to have pinch hitter So Taguchi - batting for Chris Duncan - lay down a sacrifice bunt - preferably one the pitcher would have to field. Sure enough, after fielding the bunt, Rodney somehow managed to throw the ball over the first baseman's head - allowing Eckstein to score the tying (unearned) run, as Taguchi advanced to second - representing the go-ahead (unearned) run.
After an intentional walk to Pujols, Rodney struck out both Edmonds and Rolen - but Preston Wilson came up with the big hit - a run-scoring single to left field. Left fielder Craig Monroe had no shot at nailing Taguchi at home, but Pujols was an easy out trying to take third. However, the Cardinals had finally taken a 4-3 lead - although it would be a short-lived lead.
With Braden Looper now pitching for the Cardinals to start the eighth-inning, Ivan Rodriguez greeted him with a lead-off double - then advanced to third on Placido Polanco's ground-out to the second baseman. That prompted LaRussa to bring in his rookie closer - Adam Wainwright - to get out of the jam. However, the first batter he faced - Brandon Inge - tied the game with a double to center field.
Suddenly, the game was very much in jeopardy. Detroit could take the lead again with another base hit, however, Wainwright struck out pinch hitter Alexis Gomez as well as Curtis Granderson, to end the threat.
With Joel Zumaya now pitching for the Tigers, Molina drew a lead-off walk to start the home half of the eighth. Miles then forced Yadi at second on a grounder to third base. Then, in a bizarre play, Zumaya struck out Encarnacion on a wild pitch, advancing Miles to second - although catcher Rodriguez was able to retrieve the ball in time to retire the batter at first base.
Next up - Eckstein - hit a line drive to left center field which probably should have been caught by Granderson - but the Tigers' center fielder slipped on the wet outfield grass, as the ball sailed over his head - good for another double, and good for his second RBI of the game. That was the only run in the inning, but it proved to be all that was necessary to take Game Four by a 5-4 final score.
Despite blowing the save, Wainwright pitched a perfect ninth to preserve his first career postseason win - and put the Redbirds on the cusp of what seemed like an impossible World Series championship just one short month ago.
In baseball, one month can bring about great change. A little rain can go a long way, too.
Saturday, October 25, 2014
October 25, 1987 - A Game 7 Disappointment at the Metrodome
Sunday, October 25, 1987 - World Series - Game 7 vs Minnesota Twins at the Hubert H Humphrey Metrodome - Attendance: 55,376 - Starting Pitchers: Joe Magrane vs Frank Viola
It was a disappointing conclusion to an otherwise exemplary 1987 season for Whitey Herzog's Cardinals - succumbing to the Minnesota Twins at their hostile, high-decibel home ballpark, by a score of 4-2.
It was a predictable outcome to this best-of-seven series - when home-field advantage was never more prominently on display: Minnesota had it - and won all four games played at home. It was no coincidence when they also won the World Series four years later by taking all four games played in this noisy hell-hole over the Atlanta Braves.
The Cardinals were able to muster up enough offense early in this relatively quiet game to take a short-lived 2-0 lead.
Back-to-back-to-back second-inning singles by Jim Lindeman (playing in place of the injured Jack Clark), Willie McGee and Tony Pena staked the Cards to a 1-0 lead. Two outs later, with Pena and McGee still occupying first and second, ninth-place hitter Steve Lake - a pretty good first pitch fastball hitter - grounded Frank Viola's first pitch fastball into left field for a run-scoring single. And just like that, the St Louis offense had been shut off.
Trying to protect a 2-0 lead, the rookie Joe Magrane pitched admirably through the first four-innings - allowing one run on four hits. He got some defensive help in the second-inning from left fielder Vince Coleman - who cut down Don Baylor at the plate, trying to score from second on a base hit off the bat of Tim Laudner. At the time, it preserved the shutout, but later in the inning, the Twins scored a two-out run on an RBI single from Steve Lombardozzi.
Still nursing a 2-1 lead, Magrane yielded a one-out fifth-inning single by Greg Gagne - prompting Herzog to bring Danny Cox in from the bullpen to face Kirby Puckett. However, the strategy backfired when Puckett's RBI double tied the game at two runs apiece.
With the crowd's decibel level rising, a distracted Cox walked Gary Gaetti - then, with Don Baylor batting, manager Tom Kelly put the runners in motion - but the lead runner - Puckett - was thrown out trying to steal third, as Gaetti advanced to second.
When Baylor delivered with a clean single to left field, Vince Coleman once again played the ball well and made yet another strong throw home - this time, to nail Gaetti at the plate. Two outfield assists in one World Series game. Vince Coleman was the last player to accomplish that feat in World Series play. Had the Cardinals managed to win Game Seven, chances are Vince Coleman would have won World Series MVP honors.
The game was still tied, but it was the Cardinal defense that got Cox out of that jam. Danny apparently had nothing left in the tank at this point - further evidenced by the back-to-back walks he issued to Brunansky and Hrbeck to start the home half of the sixth-inning.
Herzog then brought in his closer - Todd Worrell - in an attempt to preserve this precarious tie. He retired the first batter - Laudner - on a foul popup to first baseman Lindeman - however, he walked pinch hitter Roy Smalley to load the bases. After striking out Dan Gladden, the irrepressible Greg Gagne scored Brunansky on an infield hit which utility infielder Tom Lawless - playing in place of the injured Terry Pendleton - couldn't handle at third base.
Minnesota had taken the lead on three walks and a scratch hit. Worrell struck out Puckett to end the threat, but the damage had been done.
With the decibel levels reaching new highs as the game progressed, Viola regained his mastery over the patch-work Cardinal lineup. After the Twins tacked on an eighth-inning insurance run on a two-out RBI double by Dan Gladden, closer Jeff Reardon finished 'em off in the ninth.
The Twins had their first-ever World Series championship - ironically, two years after the Kansas City Royals won their first title - also at the expense of Herzog's Cardinals.
It was a disappointing conclusion to an otherwise exemplary 1987 season for Whitey Herzog's Cardinals - succumbing to the Minnesota Twins at their hostile, high-decibel home ballpark, by a score of 4-2.
It was a predictable outcome to this best-of-seven series - when home-field advantage was never more prominently on display: Minnesota had it - and won all four games played at home. It was no coincidence when they also won the World Series four years later by taking all four games played in this noisy hell-hole over the Atlanta Braves.
The Cardinals were able to muster up enough offense early in this relatively quiet game to take a short-lived 2-0 lead.
Back-to-back-to-back second-inning singles by Jim Lindeman (playing in place of the injured Jack Clark), Willie McGee and Tony Pena staked the Cards to a 1-0 lead. Two outs later, with Pena and McGee still occupying first and second, ninth-place hitter Steve Lake - a pretty good first pitch fastball hitter - grounded Frank Viola's first pitch fastball into left field for a run-scoring single. And just like that, the St Louis offense had been shut off.
Trying to protect a 2-0 lead, the rookie Joe Magrane pitched admirably through the first four-innings - allowing one run on four hits. He got some defensive help in the second-inning from left fielder Vince Coleman - who cut down Don Baylor at the plate, trying to score from second on a base hit off the bat of Tim Laudner. At the time, it preserved the shutout, but later in the inning, the Twins scored a two-out run on an RBI single from Steve Lombardozzi.
Still nursing a 2-1 lead, Magrane yielded a one-out fifth-inning single by Greg Gagne - prompting Herzog to bring Danny Cox in from the bullpen to face Kirby Puckett. However, the strategy backfired when Puckett's RBI double tied the game at two runs apiece.
With the crowd's decibel level rising, a distracted Cox walked Gary Gaetti - then, with Don Baylor batting, manager Tom Kelly put the runners in motion - but the lead runner - Puckett - was thrown out trying to steal third, as Gaetti advanced to second.
When Baylor delivered with a clean single to left field, Vince Coleman once again played the ball well and made yet another strong throw home - this time, to nail Gaetti at the plate. Two outfield assists in one World Series game. Vince Coleman was the last player to accomplish that feat in World Series play. Had the Cardinals managed to win Game Seven, chances are Vince Coleman would have won World Series MVP honors.
The game was still tied, but it was the Cardinal defense that got Cox out of that jam. Danny apparently had nothing left in the tank at this point - further evidenced by the back-to-back walks he issued to Brunansky and Hrbeck to start the home half of the sixth-inning.
Herzog then brought in his closer - Todd Worrell - in an attempt to preserve this precarious tie. He retired the first batter - Laudner - on a foul popup to first baseman Lindeman - however, he walked pinch hitter Roy Smalley to load the bases. After striking out Dan Gladden, the irrepressible Greg Gagne scored Brunansky on an infield hit which utility infielder Tom Lawless - playing in place of the injured Terry Pendleton - couldn't handle at third base.
Minnesota had taken the lead on three walks and a scratch hit. Worrell struck out Puckett to end the threat, but the damage had been done.
With the decibel levels reaching new highs as the game progressed, Viola regained his mastery over the patch-work Cardinal lineup. After the Twins tacked on an eighth-inning insurance run on a two-out RBI double by Dan Gladden, closer Jeff Reardon finished 'em off in the ninth.
The Twins had their first-ever World Series championship - ironically, two years after the Kansas City Royals won their first title - also at the expense of Herzog's Cardinals.
Friday, October 24, 2014
October 24, 2006 - Carpenter Tames Tigers - Cards Take 2 Games to 1 World Series Lead
Tuesday, October 24, 2006 - World Series - Game 3 at Busch Stadium III vs Detroit Tigers - Starting Pitchers: Chris Carpenter vs Nate Robertson - Attendance: 46,513
Chris Carpenter blanked the Tigers on three hits through eight-innings, as the Cardinals brought home a crucial 5-0 Game Three win - to take a two games to one World Series lead.
Jim Edmonds' fourth-inning bases loaded double scored Albert Pujols and Scott Rolen to give Carpenter all the run support he would need. However, thanks to the continued defensive ineptitude from the Tigers' pitching staff, the Cards got a few late-inning gift runs to win this one going away.
Already leading 2-0, the Cardinals scored a pair of seventh-inning runs without even putting a ball in play past the pitcher's mound. Both David Eskstein and Preston Wilson walked to start the inning off the wild Joel Zumaya - who then coaxed Albert Pujols into hitting a nice little ground ball right back to the mound.
However, Zumaya's mind went blank. Suddenly, he was standing on the pitcher's mound with a live ball in his hand and he didn't know what to do with it. What he should have done - but apparently forgot - is turn around and fire a strike to second, where shortstop Carlos Guillen would be turning an easy double play. Eckstein would be on third, but with two outs, that wouldn't be a problem, as long as he could retire the next guy.
In reality, what Zumaya did after fielding the ball, was panic - causing an ill-advised and very wild throw in the general direction of third base. As the ball careened down the left field line into foul territory, both Eckstein and Wilson scored, as Pujols rambled into second with his little league "double".
Manager Jim Leyland thought this might be a good time to make a pitching change - and he made a wise choice - bringing in Jason Grilli - who actually got the necessary three outs without another run crossing the plate.
Unfortunately for Leyland and company, he brought in the wild Fernando Rodney to pitch the eighth-inning. His first order of business was to walk So Taguchi. After a successful sacrifice bunt by Carpenter, Fernando found the strike zone against Eckstein - but maybe too much of the strike zone - as the suddenly hot Cardinal shortstop singled to left - advancing Taguchi to third.
This time up, Pujols didn't even have to swing the bat in order to score a run. All he had to do was stand there, then get out of the way of a wild pitch, before taking a couple of steps back to allow Taguchi to score. With Eckstein now on second base, Rodney then plunked Pujols with a pitch - as a time-saving measure, since intentional walks require four time-consuming lobs out of the strike zone.
Fernando then induced Scott Rolen into hitting a grounder to third baseman Inge - who had been having quite an adventurous Fall Classic in the fielding department, himself - but this time, he knew what to do - stepping on the third base bag, then throwing a strike to first base to complete the double play. Afterwards, an amazed Detroit pitching staff was asking Inge how he was able to make such a nice throw under such extreme pressure.
Apparently, scoring that fifth run changed LaRussa's mind-set regarding the need for Carpenter to pitch a complete game shutout. After all, Carpenter was allowed to hit for himself - or rather, bunt for himself - but, he was removed from the game at the conclusion of that eighth-inning - before getting the opportunity join legends such as Gibson and Dean - among others - to throw complete game shutouts in a World Series.
It would've been nice, but LaRussa brought in Braden Looper to finish up, and he did his job - retiring all three batters to preserve the 5-0 win.
Most importantly, the Cardinals were winning - simply by playing good, sound fundamental baseball. Of course, the Tigers were losing - by playing bad, unsound fundamental baseball. This trend would continue for another two games.
Chris Carpenter blanked the Tigers on three hits through eight-innings, as the Cardinals brought home a crucial 5-0 Game Three win - to take a two games to one World Series lead.
Jim Edmonds' fourth-inning bases loaded double scored Albert Pujols and Scott Rolen to give Carpenter all the run support he would need. However, thanks to the continued defensive ineptitude from the Tigers' pitching staff, the Cards got a few late-inning gift runs to win this one going away.
Already leading 2-0, the Cardinals scored a pair of seventh-inning runs without even putting a ball in play past the pitcher's mound. Both David Eskstein and Preston Wilson walked to start the inning off the wild Joel Zumaya - who then coaxed Albert Pujols into hitting a nice little ground ball right back to the mound.
However, Zumaya's mind went blank. Suddenly, he was standing on the pitcher's mound with a live ball in his hand and he didn't know what to do with it. What he should have done - but apparently forgot - is turn around and fire a strike to second, where shortstop Carlos Guillen would be turning an easy double play. Eckstein would be on third, but with two outs, that wouldn't be a problem, as long as he could retire the next guy.
In reality, what Zumaya did after fielding the ball, was panic - causing an ill-advised and very wild throw in the general direction of third base. As the ball careened down the left field line into foul territory, both Eckstein and Wilson scored, as Pujols rambled into second with his little league "double".
Manager Jim Leyland thought this might be a good time to make a pitching change - and he made a wise choice - bringing in Jason Grilli - who actually got the necessary three outs without another run crossing the plate.
Unfortunately for Leyland and company, he brought in the wild Fernando Rodney to pitch the eighth-inning. His first order of business was to walk So Taguchi. After a successful sacrifice bunt by Carpenter, Fernando found the strike zone against Eckstein - but maybe too much of the strike zone - as the suddenly hot Cardinal shortstop singled to left - advancing Taguchi to third.
This time up, Pujols didn't even have to swing the bat in order to score a run. All he had to do was stand there, then get out of the way of a wild pitch, before taking a couple of steps back to allow Taguchi to score. With Eckstein now on second base, Rodney then plunked Pujols with a pitch - as a time-saving measure, since intentional walks require four time-consuming lobs out of the strike zone.
Fernando then induced Scott Rolen into hitting a grounder to third baseman Inge - who had been having quite an adventurous Fall Classic in the fielding department, himself - but this time, he knew what to do - stepping on the third base bag, then throwing a strike to first base to complete the double play. Afterwards, an amazed Detroit pitching staff was asking Inge how he was able to make such a nice throw under such extreme pressure.
Apparently, scoring that fifth run changed LaRussa's mind-set regarding the need for Carpenter to pitch a complete game shutout. After all, Carpenter was allowed to hit for himself - or rather, bunt for himself - but, he was removed from the game at the conclusion of that eighth-inning - before getting the opportunity join legends such as Gibson and Dean - among others - to throw complete game shutouts in a World Series.
It would've been nice, but LaRussa brought in Braden Looper to finish up, and he did his job - retiring all three batters to preserve the 5-0 win.
Most importantly, the Cardinals were winning - simply by playing good, sound fundamental baseball. Of course, the Tigers were losing - by playing bad, unsound fundamental baseball. This trend would continue for another two games.
Thursday, October 23, 2014
October 23. 1985 - Tudor Blanks Royals, 3-0 - Cards Take 3 Games to 1 World Series Lead
Wednesday, October 23, 1985 - World Series - Game 4 vs Kansas City Royals at Busch Stadium II - Attendance: 53,634 - Starting Pitchers: John Tudor vs Bud Black
John Tudor blanked the Royals on five hits - while the Cardinal offense played a long-ball/Whitey Ball parlay - en route to a 3-0 Game Four World Series victory. With a three games to one lead over Kansas City in the Fall Classic, the Cardinals were on the cusp of their second world championship in four years.
With methodical efficiency, Tudor had this game under control from start to finish - issuing just one base on balls while striking out eight.
Meanwhile, Kansas City starter Bud Black made few mistakes in his five innings of work, but when he did, the Cardinals were able to capitalize. With one out in the second-inning, Tito Landrum's opposite-field solo home run down the right field line gave Tudor the only run he would need.
The unexpected power surge continued - when 1982 World Series hero Willie McGee launched another solo home run off Black - this one coming with two out in the third-inning.
In the fifth-inning, the Redbirds scored their final run of the night in a more conventional manner - at least for Whitey Herzog's '85 Cardinals. With one out, Terry Pendleton lined a triple in the right center field gap - then scored when catcher Tom Nieto laid down a perfect squeeze-play bunt. In fielding the ball, a distracted Black threw wildly past first base, allowing Nieto to reach second, but that was inconsequential. Nieto didn't score, but three runs were plenty tonight.
Those three runs would've come in handy in Game Six - the devastating 2-1 loss when Cardinal fans are still blaming a blown call at first base for costing the team a world championship. What really cost the Cardinals was their inability to hit - and score runs. Credit the Royals' pitching staff for doing their job against a once-potent Cardinals' offense.
With this Game Four win, manager Whitey Herzog still had his trump card available for a possible seventh game showdown - John Tudor - who had been so flawless for the Cardinals in his first two World Series starts.
John Tudor blanked the Royals on five hits - while the Cardinal offense played a long-ball/Whitey Ball parlay - en route to a 3-0 Game Four World Series victory. With a three games to one lead over Kansas City in the Fall Classic, the Cardinals were on the cusp of their second world championship in four years.
With methodical efficiency, Tudor had this game under control from start to finish - issuing just one base on balls while striking out eight.
Meanwhile, Kansas City starter Bud Black made few mistakes in his five innings of work, but when he did, the Cardinals were able to capitalize. With one out in the second-inning, Tito Landrum's opposite-field solo home run down the right field line gave Tudor the only run he would need.
The unexpected power surge continued - when 1982 World Series hero Willie McGee launched another solo home run off Black - this one coming with two out in the third-inning.
In the fifth-inning, the Redbirds scored their final run of the night in a more conventional manner - at least for Whitey Herzog's '85 Cardinals. With one out, Terry Pendleton lined a triple in the right center field gap - then scored when catcher Tom Nieto laid down a perfect squeeze-play bunt. In fielding the ball, a distracted Black threw wildly past first base, allowing Nieto to reach second, but that was inconsequential. Nieto didn't score, but three runs were plenty tonight.
Those three runs would've come in handy in Game Six - the devastating 2-1 loss when Cardinal fans are still blaming a blown call at first base for costing the team a world championship. What really cost the Cardinals was their inability to hit - and score runs. Credit the Royals' pitching staff for doing their job against a once-potent Cardinals' offense.
With this Game Four win, manager Whitey Herzog still had his trump card available for a possible seventh game showdown - John Tudor - who had been so flawless for the Cardinals in his first two World Series starts.
Wednesday, October 22, 2014
October 22, 2011 - The Albert Pujols 3-HR Show
Saturday, October 22, 2011 - World Series - Game Three - at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington vs Texas Rangers - Attendance: 51,462 - Starting Pitchers: Kyle Lohse vs Matt Harrison
Albert Pujols had grown weary of the relentless media criticism regarding his poor performance in the first two games of the World Series - especially after Game Two's loss to the Rangers, which was greatly facilitated by Pujols' ninth-inning error - resulting in the game-winning (unearned) run crossing the plate.
And oh, by the way, "Why aren't you getting any hits, Albert?"
To the casual observer - which includes the vast majority of media covering this Fall Classic - Pujols was clearly in a slump. Well, after going 0 for 4 in Game Two, Albert's postseason slash line had dropped all the way down to .367/.456/.633. That's quite a slump.
Truth is, the Cardinals were well aware that letting Game Two get away from them could have dire consequences - especially, if they also happened to lose Game Three in Arlington, Texas.
Fortunately, Game Three got off to a nice start, with a one-out first-inning solo home run off the bat of Allen Craig - earning a spot in the starting lineup after delivering two run-scoring pinch hit singles in each of the two previous games. He now had three hits and three RBI in his first three World Series AB's. Meanwhile, after Albert Pujols came up empty again in his first plate appearance, he was now 0 for 7. But that would change after his next trip to the plate.
The Cardinals were still clinging to that precarious 1-0 lead when Pujols got his first World Series hit - leading-off the fourth-inning with a line drive single to left field. The Cardinals then got a huge break when Matt Holliday's double-play grounder to shortstop Elvis Andrus was lackadaisically turned by second baseman Ian Kinsler. His throw to first baseman Mike Napoli pulled him off the bag, forcing him to tag Holliday on the shoulder to complete the double play. Napoli did just that, but first base umpire Ron Kulpa blew the call.
Instant replay hadn't been implemented back in those days, so there was nothing anyone could do except maybe argue, kick some dirt, shout profanities, carry the first base bag back to the dugout, shout some more profanities, kick some more dirt, and get two or three players tossed out of the game. But that didn't happen, either.
Now, instead of two out and nobody on, the Cardinals had a sheepish Holliday (who obviously knew he was out) on first with just one out. That's the kind of situation good teams capitalize on.
Next up - Lance Berkman lined a single to right, advancing Holliday to second. Next up - the hottest hitter on the planet at this time - David Freese - poked an outside fastball down the right field line for a double - scoring Holliday with a gift run, as Berkman stopped at third.
With first base open, Harrison walked Yadier Molina intentionally, to set up the double play. Jon Jay appeared to oblige with a routine grounder to Napoli at first, but his throw to home sailed past catcher Yorvit Torrealba - allowing both Berkman and Freese to score two (official) unearned runs. On the play, Molina raced to third and Jay found himself standing on second base.
Another unearned run scored on Ryan Theriot's base hit to left - but that would conclude the scoring for now. Harrison would be removed from the game after getting another out, as Scott Feldman took over for a while. When the fourth-inning was in the books, the Cardinals had a comfortable 5-0 lead.
However, Kyle Lohse suddenly ran afoul in the Rangers' half of the fourth-inning. Michael Young got Texas on the board with a lead-off home run. Adrian Beltre followed with a single to left, which was followed by a Nelson Cruz home run, which was followed by a Mike Napoli single to center.
Following all that, Lohse was relieved of his duties by Fernando Salas who retired David Murphy on a tap just in front of home which Molina grabbed and fired to Pujols for out number one.
However, Torrealba singled to right field, advancing Napoli to third. At this point in the game, it seemed the Cardinals were in danger of blowing the lead - which was now just a two-run advantage.
However, when Ian Kinsler lifted a fly ball to Matt Holliday in medium left, near the line, Napoli gambled, tagged up from third, but was nailed at the plate on a strong throw by Holliday. Just like that, the inning was over, as St Louis was still clinging to a 5-3 lead.
With Feldman still on the mound for Texas to begin the fifth-inning, Pujols greeted him with a lead-off single to center. After both Holliday and Berkman walked to load the bases, Freese moved all runners up a notch with an RBI ground out to third. Molina then raked a two-run double to left to regain that original five-run lead they had just an inning before. It was now 8-3 - but not for long.
In the bottom of the fifth, the Rangers knocked Salas out of the game with consecutive singles by Andrus and Hamilton, and an RBI double by Young.
Lance Lynn was the next reliever out of the Cards bullpen, and he was greeted with a run-scoring single by Beltre, cutting the deficit to 8-5 - still nobody out, with runners on first and third. Lynn then struck out the menacing Cruz - representing the tying run - on some high heat, for the first out of the inning. Napoli's sacrifice fly to right scored Young - then back-to-back walks to Murphy and Torrealba loaded the bases for Ian Kinsler in what was now a tight 8-6 game.
With the partisan Texas crowd raising all kinds of commotion, Lynn got Kinsler out on a pop fly to shortstop Furcal to end the nerve-wracking inning.
With the flame-throwing Alexi Ogando now pitching for the Rangers to start the sixth-inning, Theriot drew a lead-off walk, then advanced to second on Rafael Furcal's single to right. Next up - Allen Craig - who had burned Ogando with run-scoring pinch hits on successive nights, to give the Cardinals the lead each time - didn't fare so well this time around - striking out on a high fastball.
Pujols was now batting - and he was ready for the fastball - crushing it deep to left field for a three-run home run. FOX broadcaster Joe Buck commented, "That ball was absolutely murdered!"
After St Louis added another unearned run (error, single, walk to load the bases) on Molina's sacrifice fly, they were finally in control of this wild game - leading, 12-6.
Pujols was just getting warmed up. With Mike Gonzalez now mopping up for Texas in the seventh-inning, he managed to walk Craig with two out and nobody on. By this time, the crowd was fascinated with the show Pujols was staging. As if on cue, he launched one out to left center field - a two-run home run: 14-6.
After Texas pushed across their final run in the bottom of the seventh, St Louis added one more in the eighth - on a run-scoring double by Molina - his fourth RBI on the night: 15-7.
The stage was set for Act III. With two out in the top of the ninth, veteran lefty Darren Oliver served one up to Pujols - which was deposited in the left center field bleachers, for his third straight home run - his fifth straight hit. Joe Buck acknowledged that Pujols had tied Reggie Jackson with that third home run, but he failed to mention the first guy to do it: Babe Ruth (1926 vs the Cardinals).
Meanwhile, Buck's loquacious broadcast partner, Tim McCarver gushed, "Wow! That's a wow!"
After Mitchell Boggs' anti-climactic 1-2-3 ninth-inning of work, the Cardinals had won the pivotal Game Three to take a two games to one lead in this amazing World Series. Final score: 16-7.
Only the 1936 New York Yankees - Game Two vs New York Giants - scored more than the Cardinals did tonight - with 18 runs.
The combined two-team total of 23 runs scored is the third highest in World Series history. '93 World Series - Game 4: Toronto 15 - Philadelphia 14 (29 runs), followed by '97 World Series - Game 3: Florida 14 - Cleveland 11 (25 runs).
Lance Lynn (2.1 IP - 3 H - 1 R - 2 BB - 2 SO) recorded his second postseason win in '11.
Pujols was out of his slump: 6 AB - 5 H (3 HR) - 4 R - 6 RBI.
The Cardinals would return home to Busch Stadium after dropping the next two games in Texas - trailing three games to two in the series. Game Six would be played on October 27...
Albert Pujols had grown weary of the relentless media criticism regarding his poor performance in the first two games of the World Series - especially after Game Two's loss to the Rangers, which was greatly facilitated by Pujols' ninth-inning error - resulting in the game-winning (unearned) run crossing the plate.
And oh, by the way, "Why aren't you getting any hits, Albert?"
To the casual observer - which includes the vast majority of media covering this Fall Classic - Pujols was clearly in a slump. Well, after going 0 for 4 in Game Two, Albert's postseason slash line had dropped all the way down to .367/.456/.633. That's quite a slump.
Truth is, the Cardinals were well aware that letting Game Two get away from them could have dire consequences - especially, if they also happened to lose Game Three in Arlington, Texas.
Fortunately, Game Three got off to a nice start, with a one-out first-inning solo home run off the bat of Allen Craig - earning a spot in the starting lineup after delivering two run-scoring pinch hit singles in each of the two previous games. He now had three hits and three RBI in his first three World Series AB's. Meanwhile, after Albert Pujols came up empty again in his first plate appearance, he was now 0 for 7. But that would change after his next trip to the plate.
The Cardinals were still clinging to that precarious 1-0 lead when Pujols got his first World Series hit - leading-off the fourth-inning with a line drive single to left field. The Cardinals then got a huge break when Matt Holliday's double-play grounder to shortstop Elvis Andrus was lackadaisically turned by second baseman Ian Kinsler. His throw to first baseman Mike Napoli pulled him off the bag, forcing him to tag Holliday on the shoulder to complete the double play. Napoli did just that, but first base umpire Ron Kulpa blew the call.
Instant replay hadn't been implemented back in those days, so there was nothing anyone could do except maybe argue, kick some dirt, shout profanities, carry the first base bag back to the dugout, shout some more profanities, kick some more dirt, and get two or three players tossed out of the game. But that didn't happen, either.
Now, instead of two out and nobody on, the Cardinals had a sheepish Holliday (who obviously knew he was out) on first with just one out. That's the kind of situation good teams capitalize on.
Next up - Lance Berkman lined a single to right, advancing Holliday to second. Next up - the hottest hitter on the planet at this time - David Freese - poked an outside fastball down the right field line for a double - scoring Holliday with a gift run, as Berkman stopped at third.
With first base open, Harrison walked Yadier Molina intentionally, to set up the double play. Jon Jay appeared to oblige with a routine grounder to Napoli at first, but his throw to home sailed past catcher Yorvit Torrealba - allowing both Berkman and Freese to score two (official) unearned runs. On the play, Molina raced to third and Jay found himself standing on second base.
Another unearned run scored on Ryan Theriot's base hit to left - but that would conclude the scoring for now. Harrison would be removed from the game after getting another out, as Scott Feldman took over for a while. When the fourth-inning was in the books, the Cardinals had a comfortable 5-0 lead.
However, Kyle Lohse suddenly ran afoul in the Rangers' half of the fourth-inning. Michael Young got Texas on the board with a lead-off home run. Adrian Beltre followed with a single to left, which was followed by a Nelson Cruz home run, which was followed by a Mike Napoli single to center.
Following all that, Lohse was relieved of his duties by Fernando Salas who retired David Murphy on a tap just in front of home which Molina grabbed and fired to Pujols for out number one.
However, Torrealba singled to right field, advancing Napoli to third. At this point in the game, it seemed the Cardinals were in danger of blowing the lead - which was now just a two-run advantage.
However, when Ian Kinsler lifted a fly ball to Matt Holliday in medium left, near the line, Napoli gambled, tagged up from third, but was nailed at the plate on a strong throw by Holliday. Just like that, the inning was over, as St Louis was still clinging to a 5-3 lead.
With Feldman still on the mound for Texas to begin the fifth-inning, Pujols greeted him with a lead-off single to center. After both Holliday and Berkman walked to load the bases, Freese moved all runners up a notch with an RBI ground out to third. Molina then raked a two-run double to left to regain that original five-run lead they had just an inning before. It was now 8-3 - but not for long.
In the bottom of the fifth, the Rangers knocked Salas out of the game with consecutive singles by Andrus and Hamilton, and an RBI double by Young.
Lance Lynn was the next reliever out of the Cards bullpen, and he was greeted with a run-scoring single by Beltre, cutting the deficit to 8-5 - still nobody out, with runners on first and third. Lynn then struck out the menacing Cruz - representing the tying run - on some high heat, for the first out of the inning. Napoli's sacrifice fly to right scored Young - then back-to-back walks to Murphy and Torrealba loaded the bases for Ian Kinsler in what was now a tight 8-6 game.
With the partisan Texas crowd raising all kinds of commotion, Lynn got Kinsler out on a pop fly to shortstop Furcal to end the nerve-wracking inning.
With the flame-throwing Alexi Ogando now pitching for the Rangers to start the sixth-inning, Theriot drew a lead-off walk, then advanced to second on Rafael Furcal's single to right. Next up - Allen Craig - who had burned Ogando with run-scoring pinch hits on successive nights, to give the Cardinals the lead each time - didn't fare so well this time around - striking out on a high fastball.
Pujols was now batting - and he was ready for the fastball - crushing it deep to left field for a three-run home run. FOX broadcaster Joe Buck commented, "That ball was absolutely murdered!"
After St Louis added another unearned run (error, single, walk to load the bases) on Molina's sacrifice fly, they were finally in control of this wild game - leading, 12-6.
Pujols was just getting warmed up. With Mike Gonzalez now mopping up for Texas in the seventh-inning, he managed to walk Craig with two out and nobody on. By this time, the crowd was fascinated with the show Pujols was staging. As if on cue, he launched one out to left center field - a two-run home run: 14-6.
After Texas pushed across their final run in the bottom of the seventh, St Louis added one more in the eighth - on a run-scoring double by Molina - his fourth RBI on the night: 15-7.
The stage was set for Act III. With two out in the top of the ninth, veteran lefty Darren Oliver served one up to Pujols - which was deposited in the left center field bleachers, for his third straight home run - his fifth straight hit. Joe Buck acknowledged that Pujols had tied Reggie Jackson with that third home run, but he failed to mention the first guy to do it: Babe Ruth (1926 vs the Cardinals).
Meanwhile, Buck's loquacious broadcast partner, Tim McCarver gushed, "Wow! That's a wow!"
After Mitchell Boggs' anti-climactic 1-2-3 ninth-inning of work, the Cardinals had won the pivotal Game Three to take a two games to one lead in this amazing World Series. Final score: 16-7.
Only the 1936 New York Yankees - Game Two vs New York Giants - scored more than the Cardinals did tonight - with 18 runs.
The combined two-team total of 23 runs scored is the third highest in World Series history. '93 World Series - Game 4: Toronto 15 - Philadelphia 14 (29 runs), followed by '97 World Series - Game 3: Florida 14 - Cleveland 11 (25 runs).
Lance Lynn (2.1 IP - 3 H - 1 R - 2 BB - 2 SO) recorded his second postseason win in '11.
Pujols was out of his slump: 6 AB - 5 H (3 HR) - 4 R - 6 RBI.
The Cardinals would return home to Busch Stadium after dropping the next two games in Texas - trailing three games to two in the series. Game Six would be played on October 27...
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