Pujols & Fielder Have Much in Common

The two biggest winners in MLB's free agent sweepstakes - Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder - have much in common, aside from all the money.  Both are power-hitting first basemen who once played for rival NL Central teams - the St Louis Cardinals and the Milwaukee Brewers.  Both were widely revered - even idolized - by their legion of fans.  Both chose to leave.  Both signed massive long-term contracts with American League teams - the LA Angels of Anaheim and the Detroit Tigers.  Both are under the employ of very generous owners who are trying very hard to put together a winning team for their fans.  Both will finish their careers as Designated Hitters.

One was expected to help his new team reach the postseason for the first time since 2009.  The other was expected to help his new team easily win a second straight division title.  The fans in both cities - LA and Detroit - were deliriously happy; their new teammates were absolutely giddy when the news of their signings broke.

Both teams already had capable first basemen - Mark Trumbo and Miguel Cabrera - that have been forced to play other, less capable defensive positions.  Cabrera willingly made the move to third base where he has performed significantly worse, as expected, than incumbent Brandon Inge, who was subsequently released, as the odd-man out.  Ironically, Inge's career has since been revitalized as the new third baseman for the Oakland A's; hitting home runs and driving in runs like Lou Gehrig in his prime, until recently sidelined by a trip to the DL.

Trumbo has been the Angels' most productive hitter since breaking in with the team last season.  No longer considered a viable option at first base, Trumbo has proven to be a defensive liability at third base, while a log-jam in the outfield has kept him out of the Halos' anemic lineup far too often.  To help give him more playing time, the team released veteran Bobby Abreu, who subsequently hooked on with the Dodgers, and is playing quite well; naturally.

Meanwhile, as the season reaches the Memorial Day milestone, both teams are playing significantly below their expectation level - losing more often than not - and have more than just a few disgruntled fans wondering if the price of admission for future games is going to be worth it.

Both teams have a myriad of problems that need to be resolved for the remaining 70-75% of the regular season, if they hope to make it into the expanded postseason mix.  For the kind of money these guys are making, there are more than just a few casual observers who think neither one is earning their keep.  Pujols got off to the worst start of his career - one of the most well-publicized slumps in MLB history - but has slowly begun to dig himself out of the abyss; especially after Friday night's three-run bomb in Seattle, which helped rally the Angels to a come-from-behind victory.  He then added a solo shot in Saturday's win over the Mariners, so perhaps he's on the way to producing more "Pujols-like" numbers this season, although his 0 for 4 Sunday knocked his career batting average down to .325; three points lower than he began the season.

Fielder has maintained a very respectable batting average all season long, but hasn't quite produced the overwhelming power numbers the Tigers organization was hoping to see.  With Albert's recent power surge, he's very close to matching the run production which Prince has quietly accounted for so far this season.  The batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage is another story.  Through Sunday, here are their latest stats:

              G      HR   RBI   BA   OBP   SLG   OPS+
Pujols     48       7      26   .227   .271    .387     85
Fielder    47       7      28   .317   .379    .489    138

162 Game Projections:  Pujols - 24 HR - 88 RBI; Fielder - 24 HR - 97 RBI.

How does this compare to the typical offensive production each player has generated during their careers?  Well, if Albert goes on to only hit 24 home runs this year, he will establish a new career low (so far, 32 home runs has been his lowest total).  Fielder has slugged as many as 51 home runs in a season, so his current pace would yield about half that total.

Here's what Arte Moreno and Mike Ilich were probably hoping for when they made those large commitments to both sluggers:

162 Game Career Averages (Through 2011):

Pujols - 42 HR - 125 RBI - .328 BA/.420 OBP/.617 SLG - 170 OPS+

Fielder - 37 HR - 106 RBI - .282 BA/.390 OBP/.540 SLG - 143 OPS+

Fielder has been hitting for a slightly higher average since joining the Tigers, but is drawing fewer bases on balls, so his OBP is off a bit from his career average.  The big concern, which should be no big surprise, is this year's diminished slugging percentage.  Quite simply, Fielder's power numbers were inflated by playing half his games at hitter-friendly Miller Park; at least compared to pitcher-friendly Comerica Park where he now plays half his games.  That's understandable.  Pujols is another story.

Not only has Albert never hit less than 32 home runs in a single season, last year was the first time in his career he failed to drive in 100 runs, although he came close with 99.  While he may be able to muster up enough power and enough playing time to avoid new career lows in those categories - he is almost certain to fall well short of these previous "career worst" totals, set just last year:  .299 BA/.366 OBP/.541 SLG.

Despite his recent heroics, the thirty-two year-old Pujols is clearly experiencing a rapid decline in his batting skills.  If this continues for another nine years, it's likely his career batting average will fall below .300, his on base percentage below .400, and his slugging percentage well below .600; perhaps closer to a mere mortal .500 SLG.

If that sounds blasphemous, consider that his career batting average since joining the Angels has already dropped from .328 to .325; his career on base percentage is down from .420 to .416; and even more alarming, his career slugging percentage has dropped seven points, from .617 to .610.  As it stands, Pujols is one of only seven players in MLB history with a career slugging percentage over .600.  He still ranks fourth all-time, behind Ruth (.690), Williams (.634) and Gehrig (.632), but now he's just one point higher than Foxx (.609).  Bonds (.607) and Greenberg (.605) also figure to go up a notch as Albert slides further down the ladder, under that magical .600 plateau; probably before the end of the season.

When he fades from that elite slugging status, his reputation as one of game's all-time greatest players will surely be tarnished.  Of course, no matter what happens for the remainder of his career, Albert Pujols will still be a first-ballot Hall of Famer, when the time comes.  Somehow, it's hard to picture him being enshrined at Cooperstown wearing anything but a Cardinals jersey.

Fielder, who is four years younger than Pujols, may have already reached his peak, although he should continue to be a fairly productive hitter for the bulk of his nine-year stint with Detroit.  Whether or not that body will have enough batting skill left inside to warrant another contract somewhere remains to be seen.  If not, perhaps he'll begin a new chapter in his life as a batting instructor somewhere; maybe the Angels will need another one by that time; someone who could possibly help a 41-year old Albert Pujols get out of another season-long slump.

In the meantime, it appears the Cardinals found a significantly better replacement for their departed slugger than the Brewers were able to scrounge up for their lost power source.  Here's their comparison:

                            G     HR   RBI   BA   OBP   SLG    OPS+
Carlos Beltran      46     15     41    .290   .388   .605      169
Aramis Ramirez   43      3      25    .238   .310   .402       91

With the Cardinals as banged-up as they are at the present time, they can ill-afford to lose the services of the amazing Beltran - who currently leads the NL in home runs and runs batted in - for any extended period of time.  He has a history of knee trouble which has already held him out of the lineup for a few games; Cardinal Nation is hoping the baseball gods will manage to keep him healthy for the duration of what they hope will be a very long postseason run.

In the meantime, both Pujols and Fielder have avoided injury this season, keeping them in the lineup day in and day out.  At least they've proven to be highly durable athletes in 2012; another common denominator.

The Cardinals could have used a little of that quality for their growing list of walking wounded this year; proving that good hitting ability without good health is good for nothing.

Cardinals Played Free Agent Game Well

As the first month of the 2012 MLB season draws to a close, the St Louis Cardinals (14-8) remain atop the NL Central by three games over the second place Cincinnati Reds (11-11) - the only other team in the division not under .500.  Clearly, the Cardinals appear to be the strongest team in an otherwise weak division, yet their failure to win some close games (like Sunday's irritating 3-2 loss to Milwaukee) is cause for some consternation; but relax, Cardinal Nation.  The season is still young, and the Cardinals have more talent on the disabled list than some teams have in their starting lineups.  If the Cardinals return to full-strength any time soon, it could be lights out for the rest of the Central.

With every passing day, the NL-leading Cardinals offense dispels the notion that they wouldn't be able to thrive without their former icon (actually, it's the former icon who's not thriving).  While Albert Pujols is barely hitting .200 and still searching for that first home run as an Angel, the Cards have whacked 24 as a team, trailing only the Brewers (32) in the National League.  Go figure; St Louis loses Albert Pujols and Milwaukee loses Prince Fielder; yet, there they sit, atop the NL home run leader board.

The Cards are hardly a one-dimensional team, however; with a well-balanced attack that really hasn't even hit its stride yet, the Redbirds lead the National League with 113 runs scored (tied with Atlanta prior to Monday), thanks in large part to these NL-leading key hitting metrics - .280 BA/.350 OBP/.442 SLG.

The pitching staff has been the biggest early season surprise - rising to the occasion with Chris Carpenter on the DL and Adam Wainwright still "a work in progress", after missing all of last year with elbow surgery.  The other four starters have been nothing short of sensational (combined 13-2), led by a pair of 4-0 aces - Lance Lynn and Kyle Lohse.  The staff ERA of 2.61 is second best in all of MLB, trailing only the Washington Nationals (2.33).  What Redbird pitchers have done better than any other MLB staff is pitch efficiently, limiting base runners to an amazing 1.04 WHIP.  To understand how good that is, Pedro Martinez had the fourth-best career WHIP in MLB history (1.05).

While some teams have spent tremendous amounts of money on long-term contracts for big-name free agents, the Cardinals wisely took a different, short-term and fiscally responsible approach - re-signing shortstop Rafael Furcal to a two-year $14 million deal; then, after the King's abrupt departure to Southern California, the Redbirds wasted very little time in securing the services of outfielder Carlos Beltran for the next two years, as well; if his knees hold up, the $26 million investment will be money well spent.

Both players have contributed nicely to the Cardinals' impressive offensive attack so far this season; both got off to great starts, helping the team build its early-season advantage in the standings.  Although Beltran has cooled off recently (.256 BA/.376 OBP/.462 SLG), his five home runs and seventeen runs scored lead the team, and is in sharp contrast to what Albert (the player he replaced on the roster) has done for the Halos (zilch).

Furcal has been getting on base with remarkable consistency (.315 BA/.384 OBP), scoring 14 runs from the top of the order - often in the very first inning - helping the Redbirds regularly seize control of games from the outset.  If he stays healthy, there's no reason to suspect that trend won't continue.

Essentially, for $20 million per year, the Cardinals are getting the services of two key components to its success - a pretty good shortstop who knows how to get on base and create scoring opportunities, plus a premier-hitting outfielder capable of a .380-plus OBP, while hitting 25-plus home runs and slugging over .500.  In today's high-priced - often over-priced - talent pool throughout MLB, Furcal and Beltran could be among the biggest bargains out there.

Meanwhile, other teams appear to have made good free agent acquisitions, as well, based on some early results:

*Jonathan Papelbon - 4 years/$50 million - With the Phillies' anemic offense, the team can ill-afford to blow any ninth-inning leads; they haven't, as Papelbon has saved eight out of eight so far this season.  Four years may be longer than desired; closing is a risky business, but he's clearly the best in 2012.

*Bartolo Colon - 1 year/$900,000 - In one astounding performance against Pujols and the Angels, Colon pitched brilliantly; pounding the strike zone 38 consecutive times at one point, getting the easy win.  He's pitching like it's 2002, not 2012 (3-2/2.53 ERA/.214 BAA/0.94 WHIP).

*Carlos Pena - 1 year/$7,250,000 - After a one-year exile to the Chicago Cubs, the power-hitting Pena is returning to the Tampa Bay Rays, where he has flourished, and should continue to flourish for a very good team (.286 BA/.412 OBP/.488 SLG/4 HR/13 RBI).

*Cody Ross - 1 year/$3 million - The 2010 postseason hero for the San Francisco Giants has been hitting home runs in bunches for Bobby V's Boston Red Sox, helping them stay afloat in the AL East (.257 BA/.317 OBP/.500 SLG/5 HR/18 RBI).

*Erik Bedard - 1 year/$4.5 million - If he could get any run support from the light-hitting Pittsburgh Pirates, he'd never lose.  His current won-loss record is deceptively bad (1-4/2.48 ERA); that should improve over the course of the year; he fits nicely into what has become a very formidable rotation for a team I boldly picked to end its 20-year streak of below .500 finishes; assuming they can score a few runs every now and then.

*The Hairston Brothers - Jerry - 2 years/$6 million - and Scott - 1 year/$1.1 million - Jerry has played well for the NL West leading Dodgers (.300 BA/.417 OBP/.350 SLG), especially defensively; while Scott recently hit for the cycle in a Mets loss to Colorado; perhaps a waste of hits, but he should continue adding some punch to the underrated Mets' lineup (.244 BA/.277 OBP/.467 SLG).

*Michael Cuddyer - 3 years/$31.5 million - Escaping pitcher-friendly Target Field was a good move for the former-Minnesota Twin fan favorite; he's played well for his new team, the Colorado Rockies, and loves hitting in that altitude (.299 BA/.365 OBP/.517 SLG).

Certainly, there are others that figure to work out well for the new teams; these are the ones that caught my eye first.  What really caught my eye were some of the deals that seem unlikely to pan out in the long- run or short-run, for that matter.  The free agent lemons:

*Albert Pujols - 10 years/$240 million plus incentives -  At what point does the King's "slump" become acknowledged for what it really is; "declining performance"?  Albert will hit some more home runs over the next ten years of this contractual nightmare; but he'll never hit enough of them to justify this type of expenditure, Halos fans.  That's the harsh reality (.217 BA/.264 OBP/.304 SLG/0 HR/4 RBI).

*Jim Thome - 1 year/$1,250,000 - Speaking of "declining performance" - I know this is chump change by today's standards, but this 40-something fossil is hitting below the Pujols Line for the punchless Phillies (.111 BA/.238 OBP/.111 SLG).  I could hit better than that, and I'd be willing to work for $1.25 per hour.

*Heath Bell - 3 years/$27 million - Signing an aging (34 year-old) closer whose strikeouts per nine innings rate has been steadily declining; who recorded all those career saves at pitcher-haven Petco Park which gave him an undeserved reputation of excellence; who has somehow managed to save two games in five save opportunities (losing the other three games); is the heavy favorite for being the first free agent from the Class of 2011 to be released prematurely by his new employer, the Miami Marlins.  His ERA of 9.53 suggests that he should take up another profession; his WHIP of 2.82 suggests he's putting so many runners on base, he's adding at least another half hour to the length of those Marlin debacles; he's got to be a fan favorite for providing all that extra excitement whenever he dashes to the mound in those perilous  ninth-inning blown save opportunities.  He's certainly got to be MLB batters' favorite pitcher; they're only hitting .346 against their cuz; maybe they can take it up a notch.

*Jose Reyes - 6 years/$106 million - The good news:  He's been healthy so far this season.  The bad news:  .205 BA/.276 OBP/.321 SLG.  This isn't what last year's NL batting champion (.337) is being paid to do; strangely enough, his partner in crime on the left side of that porous infield - Hanley Ramirez - another former batting champion is also hitting:  .205 BA/.276 OBP/.321 SLG.  No lie; that's how great this season is going for this overrated band of misfits.  At least they're consistent.

*Mark Buehrle - 4 years/$58 million - It's not that he's pitching poorly; he's 1-3 with a low 2.63 ERA.  The deadly combination of an anemic offense, lousy defense, and a closer that can't close, has made all that money going to waste.  It's a shame, but Mark should have gone anywhere else but Miami if he wanted to play on a winning team.  At least he's reunited with his old manager, Ozzie Guillen; that should be worth some laughs after the Fish are mathematically eliminated for postseason play by the 4th of July.

*Ryan Madson - 1 year/$8.5 million - Sometimes, unforeseen bad luck turns what seemed like a good signing into an unfortunate allocation of funds.  Such was the case with Madson, who seemed like a good fit for the Cincinnati Reds' bullpen - as closer.  He did a nice job for the Phillies the previous year in that capacity; however, he's going to be missing this entire season with Tommy John surgery.

By the way, I know Miami Marlins outfielder Giancarlo Stanton (.247 BA/.286 OBP/.342 SLG/1 HR/9 RBI) wasn't a free agent acquisition, but that name sounds like he should be singing opera; not hitting home runs.  Last season, when he was "Mike", he hit 34 bombs; this year "G" has gone yard but once.  I'm sure others have suggested ditching the new name since it's obviously causing nothing but bad luck on that team; especially for the fans who actually pay good money to watch 'em lose on such a regular basis.  The Curse of the Giancarlo!

Also, I refrained from putting Prince Fielder on the list of bad signings; however, at 9 years/$214 million, his new team - the Detroit Tigers - would like to get 30-plus home runs and 100-plus RBIs from the former-Brewer; actually, they really need him to do that, if they want to repeat as AL Central champs.  Currently, Prince is hitting for average, but not much power (.309 BA/.387 OBP/.444 SLG).  His 3 HR and 11 RBI in 22 games only has Fielder on a 22 HR/81 RBI pace; not horrible, but not worth $24 million per year.  The jury is still out; however, if his career takes a dive in his early 30s, this could prove to be another of a long list of bad long-term contracts.

Fielder Could Make Giants Champs Again

After Albert Pujols deserted his Cardinal Legacy in favor of that heavily back-loaded ten-year deal Artie Moreno convinced him to accept, many Cardinals fans (myself included) were hoping 27-year old Prince Fielder would hook on with the World Champions, and help lead them back to another title - 12 in '12, baby!

If the Cards do repeat however, it will be with a lineup featuring former Cardinal-killer-turned-caught looking-in-'06-victim, Carlos Beltran; not Prince Fielder.  I understand the economic challenges facing the Cardinals - forking over a couple hundred million to one guy would hinder future efforts to keep guys like Wainwright, Molina, and Freese on the payroll.  Makes sense.

Meanwhile, the team that does sign Fielder may have the missing ingredient necessary to reach the post season.  I think he's going to stay in the National League - my guess is he'll wind up signing with the Washington Nationals.  No doubt, that would greatly improve their lineup; whether or not that would translate to a post season berth in '12 is anybody's guess. 

Unfortunately for the Nats, they play in the NL East - a division dominated by the Philadelphia Phillies and their vaunted pitching staff.  Also lurking in the shadows are the Atlanta Braves, who will be inspired to prove that last season's September collapse was a fluke.  Then there are the vastly improved (except the uniforms) Miami Marlins.  If they sneak in the back door and sign Prince, that may lead to extended October play for that franchise.  I'm only giving them a 10% chance of making that happen.  As if I really know.

There's another team that may come into play in the Fielder sweepstakes - the San Francisco Giants.  This is the one team that could benefit the most from having Prince in its lineup; they've got plenty of pitching - not much hitting.  With a healthy Buster Posey returning to the lineup in '12, the Giants should be able to average more than the three and a half runs per game they produced last year.  Add Prince Fielder to the lineup, and they could get closer to five runs a game.  That could be a huge run differential in '12 - and that could make them a premier playoff-caliber team.

Of course, any team that gets into the post season is dangerous.  Barring injuries, the Cardinals should be able to make it back again - this time as NL Central champions.  None of this wild card nonsense, please.  It's too nerve-wracking.