Meanwhile, in the American League

2015 is going to be a season of great changes - at least in the American League.  The three teams that won division titles last year will be scrambling just to grab a wild card berth this year.

In the meantime, three teams that haven't won a division title in a long, long time will finally break through in 2015 - and one of those division winners will actually make it to the World Series for the first time in franchise history (although their wait will have been considerably shorter than some team we know in the NL Central that hasn't played in the Fall Classic since the Truman Administration and last won it all three years before Ronald Reagan was born).

Here's the way it's going to play out in the Junior Circuit:

AL EAST                                    AL CENTRAL                                    AL WEST

Toronto       89-73                       Cleveland         88-74                          Seattle         90-72
Baltimore    85-77                       Detroit              87-75                          LA of A        87-75             Boston        83-79                       Chicago           82-80                          Oakland       83-79

Tampa Bay  75-87                      Kansas City      81-81                          Houston       80-82

New York    71-91                       Minnesota        66-96                          Texas           71-91

Advancing to the World Series for the first time in franchise history will be the Seattle Mariners, who will of course, be playing the St Louis Cardinals (since it's an odd-numbered year).  It's interesting to note that in 1982, the Cardinals defeated the Milwaukee Brewers - who were making their first trip to the World Series - in a classic seven game showdown.

Of course, the Cardinals lost a seven-game series to the Kansas City Royals in 1985, then lost another seven-game series to the Minnesota Twins in 1987.  Both teams had never won a World Series before, although both had played in a World Series on one other occasion.

What does all this mean?  Simple:  The Cardinals will beat the Mariners in a classic seven-game series.  In the future, if Seattle makes a return trip to the World Series, and they happen to play St Louis again, they'll probably win it that time - in seven games, of course.

This Day in St Louis Cardinals History - JUNE 2

1967 - At Busch Stadium II:  Lou Brock's 2-Run 5th-inning home run paces the Cardinals to a 2-1 win over the Chicago Cubs.  Steve Carlton's (4-1) complete game 3-hitter is marred only by a Ted Savage 8th-inning solo home run.  Second-place St Louis (26-16) is only 2 games behind Cincinnati, and closing fast.

1968 - At Shea Stadium:  The Cardinals sweep a doubleheader over the New York Mets to take sole possession of first place in the National League (27-21) - one-half game ahead of the second-place San Francisco Giants.  Bob Gibson (4-5) wins the first game, 6-3, but is so irritated with his performance he refuses to allow another run over his next four starts in the month of June.  Dick Hughes (1-2) wins the nightcap, 3-2, but arm trouble would soon end the career of of last season's Rookie of the Year runner-up.  He'd only win one more game before calling it quits.

1982 -  At Busch Stadium II:  Joaquin Andujar (5-4) throws a six-hit complete game shutout over the San Francisco Giants, as the Cardinals prevail, by a score of 1-0.  Andujar got the only run support necessary in the third-inning, when Ozzie Smith walked, stole second, advanced to third on a ground-out, then scored on a Keith Hernandez two-out single.  The National League East division-leading Cardinals (32-19) now hold a 4.5 game lead over three division rivals.

1996 - At Busch Stadium II:  Todd Stottlemyre (5-3) pitches the Cardinals (26-29) into a virtual first-place tie with their NL Central rivals - the Houston Astros (27-30), with a complete game 2-0 shutout of Houston.  A second-inning RBI single by John Mabry was enough on this day, but the Redbirds added an insurance run in the eighth when Luis Alicea was hit by a pitch with the bases loaded.  St Louis would finish the season with a NL-best 62-45 record, to win their first ever NL Central title.

2000 - At Busch Stadium II:  Darryl Kile (8-3) pitches the first-place Cardinals (31-23) to a 5-1 win over the Cleveland Indians.  Kile allowed just three hits in his eight innings of work.  He also walked three and struck out nine.  The only run allowed came via a Jim Thome fourth-inning home run.  Ray Lankford provided all the run support needed today with a two-run fifth-inning triple, scoring Edmonds and McGwire.

2001 - At Busch Stadium II:  Matt Morris (8-3) struggles through 5.1 innings against the Cincinnati Reds, allowing five runs (four earned runs) on six hits, but it's good enough to win, 8-5, as the St Louis lineup scores early and often - and the bullpen does the rest - keeping the Reds scoreless over the final 3.2 innings.  Gene Stechschulte picks up the save, after Christiansen, Timlin, and Kline slammed the door shut on any further Cincinnati scoring.   Ray Lankford's two-out two-run first-inning home run was part of a four RBI game for the long-time Redbird star, while Eli Marrero and JD Drew both hit solo home runs in the second-inning to spark the offense.  The second-place Cardinals are now 3.5 games behind the Cubbies - but this would become a two-team race between St Louis and Houston, who finished with identical 93-69 records.  However, the Astros fared better in head-to-head competition with the Cardinals - so they would be declared division champs while St Louis would settle for the wild card.

2004 - At PNC Park:  Chris Carpenter (6-1) allows three runs on seven hits in 7.1 innings, as the Cardinals beat the Pittsburgh Pirates, 5-3.  Carpenter didn't walk a single batter and struck out nine.  Pirates killer Albert Pujols' first-inning two-run home run gave the Redbirds the early advantage, while John Mabry added two RBI of his own, to provide the margin of victory.  At this point in the season, the Cardinals (29-23) were still in second-place - 2.5 games behind the Cincinnati Reds.  But not for long, as St Louis would go on to finish the season with a major league-best 76-34 record, en route to a 105-win season.

2009 - At Busch Stadium II:  Albert Pujols and Nick Stavinoha drove in two runs apiece in a 5-2 Cardinal win over the Cincinnati Reds.  Starting pitcher Brad Thompson worked the first five innings for St Louis, allowing two runs on five hits.  The Cardinal bullpen - Miller, Motte, Reyes, McClellan, and Franklin - not only kept the Reds from scoring, they kept them hitless (with two walks) over the final four innings.  Franklin recorded the only strikeout by Redbird pitching in this game, as he got the one-inning save (13).  Jason Motte (2-1) worked 1.2 innings at the most opportune time to get the win.  Strangely enough, the free-swinging Cardinal hitters struck out nine times, but when they made contact, they usually hit the ball hard.  At this point in the season, St Louis and Milwaukee were deadlocked in a first-place tie in the NL Central (30-22), but the Cardinals would pull away from everybody in the division with a 61-49 record to close out the season.

Ten Teams Most Likely to Improve in 2012

The 2011 MLB season will be forever remembered for that outrageously dramatic conclusion - Game 162 - which settled two of the wildest Wild Card races, ever.  That final game capped off epic September collapses for both the Boston Red Sox, in the American League, and the Atlanta Braves, in the National League.

The beneficiaries of these epic collapses - the St Louis Cardinals and Tampa Rays both finished strong, and took care of business in Game 162; the Cards were easy winners with their ace, Chris Carpenter completely shutting down the Astros; while the Rays overcame an eighth inning seven run deficit to beat the Yankees, capped off by Evan Longoria's low-flying walk-off laser down the left-field line which barely had the height requirement to clear the lowest fence in baseball (excluding Little League fences).

Lost in the daily September Wild Card drama that was unfolding in both leagues, building up to that exciting night of baseball known as Wild Card Wednesday - Game 162 - was the contrasting lack of drama in all of the division races.  In case you've forgotten, just take a look at the margin of victory each division champ enjoyed by season's end:

Yankees (97-65) - 6 games
Brewers (96-66) - 6 games
D-Backs (94-68) - 8 games
Rangers (96-66) - 10 games
Phillies (102-60) - 13 games
Tigers (93-69) - 15 games

Not only did these teams play extremely well last season, getting career years from many of their key players; their divisional rivals, for the most part, had unusually bad years, which helped foster a great deal more disparity than normal between the top teams and those on the bottom of the heap.

Many of the teams that struggled last year appear well-positioned to rebound in 2012; some even appear to have playoff-caliber talent after investing in some key free agents and/or making shrewd trades; some teams were decimated by injuries last season but appear to be relatively healthy now; while others have up and coming talent waiting in the wings to emerge as star players right now.  The net effect in 2012 should be a great deal more parity from top to bottom, which should make the division races themselves, much more competitive, and - unlike last year - much more captivating for the fans.

Here are ten teams that should win a lot more games this time around.  For some, those extra wins have playoff implications; for others, it's just a small step towards respectability:

*Chicago Cubs (71-91) - They probably won't make the postseason, but old school new manager Dale Sveum has already had a positive influence in changing the lackadaisical Cub culture; making the players accountable, getting them to hustle and play sound, fundamental baseball; that alone should bring them back to respectability; dishing their number one head-case, Carlos Zambrano off on Miami doesn't hurt.  2012 PROJECTION:  79-83

*Minnesota Twins (63-99) - Had the worst luck with injuries than any other team in baseball last year, losing both Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau for extended periods of time; everything seemed to go wrong with this team last year; however, if they can stay relatively healthy this year, they should come very close to .500 this year - giving them the distinction of easily being baseball's most improved team.  2012 PROJECTION:  80-82

*Pittsburgh Pirates (72-90) - This team played well enough in the first half of last season to spend a day or two in first place in the NL Central; lots of young talent here, featuring center fielder Andrew McCutchen, who keeps getting better every year.  The rotation could be decent, if Erik Bedard stays healthy and AJ Burnett gets healthy and stays healthy while returning to his pre-Yankees pitching form.  Finally, if former-Brewer slugging third baseman Casey McGehee rebounds from a disappointing 2011 to knock in close to 100 runs again (like he did in '10), this could be the year the Buccos play .500 ball for the first time in 20 years; Barry Bonds' last year in Pittsburgh.  2012 PROJECTION:  81-81

*Kansas City Royals (71-91) - Sure, they were dealt a blow when they lost closer, Joakim Soria to season-ending Tommy John surgery, but they'll have Eric Hosmer for a full season with a strong supporting cast, including the slugging doubles machine, Billy Butler, defensive whiz Jeff Francoeur patrolling right field, and the talented Alex Gordon; they'll score a bunch of runs and could reach .500 level with any luck at all.  2012 PROJECTION:  79-83

*Colorado Rockies (73-89) - Many picked the Rox to win the NL West last season; that's how badly things unraveled for them; made many wholesale changes, including signing free agent Michael Cuddyer in the off season; returning to a hitter-friendly environment will help him return to old form, when the Metrodome was his home; throw in the hitting prowess of Troy Tulowitzki along with a healthy Carlos Gonzalez, and this team could lead the league in runs scored.  Pitching may be an issue, but they picked up a reliable starter, Jeremy Guthrie from Baltimore, who should give them 200+ quality innings this year.  Their number two starter is 49-year old Jaime Moyer, who would be the oldest human to ever win a major league game, if he does it; he'll probably do it at least twelve times if his body can hold out all season.  2012 PROJECTION:  83-79

*Cleveland Indians (80-82) - The Tribe got off to a sensational start last season, but gradually faded as the Tigers went on a late season tear; they have a solid pitching staff, but need Ubaldo Jimenez to pitch like he did in Colorado to make a serious run for the division title; Silver Slugger shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera should be even better this year; finally, if the oft-injured pair of Travis Hafner and Grady Sizemore can play over 100 games apiece, that may help the magic return to Progressive Field all season long this time around.  2012 PROJECTION:  87-75

*LA Dodgers (82-80) - After getting off to a horrendous start last season, LA recovered nicely over the second half, fueled by Matt Kemp's monster near-Triple Crown-MVP-caliber season and the brilliant pitching of Cy Young Award winner, Clayton Kershaw.  The offense should be much better, overall, assuming Andre Ethier and James Loney return to form; adding the potent bat of former-Angel Juan Rivera to this lineup should help them score enough runs to win the very competitive NL West.  2012 PROJECTION:  92-70

*Miami Marlins (72-90) - After spending tons of free agent money in acquiring shortstop Jose Reyes, pitcher Mark Buerhle, and aging closer Heath Bell, while importing volatile manager Ozzie Guillen to run the ship, and adding the volatile pitcher Carlos Zambrano to the rotation, this team is expected to be much better; along with changing the team name, they'll occupy a brand-new stadium, but will it be enough to reach the postseason in the competitive NL East?  That's unlikely, but at least they'll escape the cellar.  2012 PROJECTION:  83-79

*Atlanta Braves (89-73) - They were one of the best teams in baseball for most of last season, boasting a young and very talented bullpen which simply ran out of gas in September.  The starting pitching should be good enough, assuming a healthy Tim Hudson returns to the rotation sometime in May, while Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrgens stay healthy and pitch effectively.  Second baseman Dan Uggla, who had a terrible start last year but came on strong at the end, should be able to put it all together for a full season; possibly good enough to earn him his first NL MVP Award; also, expect a healthy and trimmed-down  Jason Heyward to swing the bat much better this year; finally, if Chipper Jones can keep his knee troubles to a minimum in his final season to play at least 120 games, it could be one to remember; yes, they should be able to get past the banged-up Phillies this time around.  2012 PROJECTION:  95-67

*LA Angels (86-76) - When the Halos landed Albert Pujols, they became the best team in the American League, just like that.  Unless he sustains some sort of freak injury, Pujols will have a monster season for his new team, putting up typical AP numbers (last season was an aberration), and become a strong candidate for the AL MVP Award; especially if his new team wins the AL West this time.  Not only will Albert do much damage of his own at the dish, he'll make the rest of the lineup better, with his mere presence, batting third in the order.  Almost lost in all the Pujols hype is the addition of flaky lefty CJ Wilson to an already formidable starting rotation.  2012 PROJECTION:  96-66

These ten teams are projected to win 96 extra games, over last year.  Most of the extra wins will be coming from the 2011 division champions; the end result for 2012 will be much greater parity throughout major league baseball; and that means each division race is likely to come down to the wire this time around, creating even more fun and excitement than last year's Wild Card Wednesday.

Surprising Predictions for 2012

Baseball has a history of unpredictability.  Over the course of a 162 game schedule, anything can (and usually does) happen; injuries to key players can doom a team expected to play deep into the post season.  Last year's defending World Champion San Francisco Giants, for example, were knocked out of the box by the end of May when they lost catcher Buster Posey with a season-ending knee injury.  The fact that Posey got hurt was unfortunate and unpredictable; the fact that the Giants failed to reach the post season was not at all surprising, however.

On the other hand, when the St Louis Cardinals lost the ace of their pitching staff, Adam Wainwright, to season-ending Tommy John surgery before the 2011 season even began, the Redbirds were automatically counted out (by the "experts") for any realistic chance of post season play.  Winning the World Series seemed about as likely as winning the lottery.

The Philadelphia Phillies were considered the best team to come out of the National League, and with 102 regular season wins, they were indeed the class of the Senior Circuit.  However, we all know that anything can happen in the post season; including getting bounced after the first round.  Nobody expected the Phillies to lose that NLDS to the long-shot Cardinals.  Nobody.

And nobody expected the Boston Red Sox to fold up like a cheap tent last September, and not even reach the post season as the wild card.  They were widely considered to be the best team in the American League; the team most likely to beat Philadelphia in the World Series; or maybe Atlanta; or maybe San Francisco.

There were many other surprises in baseball last season.  Teams that looked good in the 2011 preseason (according to many "experts"), included such dismal failures as the Colorado Rockies, the San Diego Padres, the Cincinnati Reds, the Oakland A's, the Chicago White Sox, and the Minnesota Twins.  None of these teams even finished above .500, let alone competed for a division title.

Of course, there were pleasant surprises, too.  Aside from Kirk Gibson and his young team of over-achievers, nobody gave the Arizona Diamondbacks any chance of competing in the National League West last season; but, compete they did, easily winning the division title over defending World Series champion, San Francisco.

Even last year's runaway American League Central champion Detroit Tigers weren't expected to do what they did.  Now, they seem to be a "lock" to not only repeat as division champions; many expect them to win the next World Series, after adding the huge bat (and body) of Prince Fielder to their lineup.  We'll see.

I think 2012 will continue the trend of unpredictability; at least to a certain degree.  Here's what I foresee:

NO REPEAT DIVISION CHAMPIONS - That's right.  The American League East no longer belongs to the Yankees; same goes with the American League West, as Texas stumbles in 2012, still hung-over from their World Series disaster at the hands of St Louis.  Even the Tigers will take a step back in 2012; unable to fit the newly acquired Prince Fielder into the mix.  Moving Miguel Cabrera to third base will be the biggest disaster to hit Detroit since the Ford Pinto.

In the National League, five-time defending champion Philadelphia will find much more competition in the East; more than they can handle.  The Central champs - the Milwaukee Brewers, will fade into obscurity after losing Fielder to the Tigers; even with Ryan Braun winning his appeal and not facing that 50 game suspension; their pitching, which looked shaky in the '11 post season, will be even shakier in 2012.  Alas, in the West, the Diamondbacks will fail to repeat their 2011 magic, although they will put up a good fight until the very end.

AND THE WINNERS ARE...


AL - EAST:  Boston - Pitching will improve; offense still very good
AL - CENTRAL:  Cleveland - The magic will be back at Progressive Field
AL - WEST:  LA/Anaheim - Relaxed Pujols will have a monster year
WILD CARD:  Texas - Yu Darvish will solidify the pitching staff
WILD CARD #2:  Tampa Bay - Enough pitching and timely hitting to sneak in again


NL - EAST:  Atlanta - Healthy rotation and a great bullpen spells relief
NL - CENTRAL:  St Louis - Albert will be missed; but lineup will stay healthy and be productive
NL - WEST:  LA - Kershaw and Kemp will continue the momentum from last year
WILD CARD:  Washington - Strasburg emerges as baseball's new best pitcher
WILD CARD #2:  Arizona - Still good enough to sneak in

Who will win it all in 2012?  I'll let you know at the end of September.  However, if my prognostication is as accurate as the vast number of last year's experts, the ultimate World Series champion will no doubt come from the other twenty teams not included here...That's baseball; always giving us surprises every year!