Showing posts with label adam wainwright. Show all posts
Showing posts with label adam wainwright. Show all posts

Wednesday, August 13, 2014

August 13, 2013 - A 14-Inning Walk-Off Winner Over Pirates

August 13, 2013 - At Busch Stadium III (Adam Wainwright - Starting Pitcher) - Opponent:  Pittsburgh Pirates (Charlie Morton - Starting Pitcher) - Attendance:  40,253

Looking back on the 2013 season - this is the game that essentially handed the NL Central division title to the Cardinals.  A loss would have left them four games behind the Pirates - which would have been their fate if not for a dropped fly ball in the ninth-inning by an otherwise excellent defensive left fielder.  What were the odds?  100 to 1?

In the end, the Cardinals would prevail in fourteen innings - thanks to a walk-off single by Adron Chambers that scored Jon Jay from second base with the fourth run of this marathon game with the Pirates.

Four hours and fifty five minutes before that dramatic conclusion, Adam Wainwright took the hill for St Louis - and fell behind quickly - on Andrew McCutchen's two-run opposite-field home run to right field.

After the Cardinals failed to score on Pirates' starter Charlie Morton in the bottom of the first - Wainwright yielded a solo home run off the bat of Jody Mercer, to give Pittsburgh a 3-0 lead.  That would prove to be the last time they'd score over the next twelve innings, as Wainwright righted the ship for the next five innings - and the bullpen took care of the other seven - although there were a couple of tense moments, just for entertainment purposes.

St Louis finally broke through on Morton in the sixth-inning.  Consecutive singles by Beltran, Craig and Holliday loaded the bases with no outs.  David Freese then hit a convenient ground ball near the bag at second - fielded by shortstop Mercer who stepped on second and threw to first to complete the double play.  Beltran scored on the play, but the rally seemed to be going down the drain, with two outs and Craig on third.  However, Jay got the run in with a clutch two-out base hit, to make it a 3-2 game.

That's where the score remained as reliever Trevor Rosenthal took over for Wainwright to begin the eighth-inning - which started ominously when Neil Walker doubled into the right field corner.  However, second base was as far as Walker would go.  The next three Pirate batters - McCutchen, Alvarez and Martin - all struck out chasing 100 mph heat.

The Cardinals still trailed 3-2 in the bottom of the ninth - facing Mark Melancon - who retired Kozma on a ground ball to the second baseman, for out number one.  Next up - Daniel Descalso lifted a routine fly ball to left field, which Starling Marte nonchalantly dropped.  Kids, this is why they tell you to use two hands when catching those fly balls - just in case the ball happens to hit the heel of the glove, you might be able to grab it with that spare hand before it falls to the ground - in this case, it fell to the ground for a two-base error - because Descalso was hustling all the way on the play - The Cardinal Way.

Melancon temporarily regrouped - striking out Matt Carpenter for the second out of the inning - but he wanted no part of Carlos Beltran - walking him on four straight pitches.  However, that meant he had to pitch to Allen Craig - who did what he did best in 2013 - hit with runners in scoring position.  In this situation, Craig scored Descalso with the tying (unearned) run - on a single to right field.  Beltran was thrown out trying to make it to third, but the damage had been done.

After the Cardinals failed to capitalize on scoring opportunities in the tenth, eleventh and thirteenth - with pitcher Seth Maness ending the latter innings by first grounding into an inning-ending double play with runners on first and third (the eleventh) and then striking out with the bases loaded (the thirteenth).  By that time, manager Mike Matheny had run out of options.

Fortunately, Maness was doing good work on the mound - especially in a nerve-wracking thirteenth-inning - when he pitched out of a bases loaded-one-out jam by getting Harrison to ground one near the third base bag - which defensive-replacement-Descalso scooped up, stepped on third and fired a strike to first to end the threat.

Just when it seemed this game would never end - with Jared Hughes on the mound for Pittsburgh - with one out in the bottom of the fourteenth, Jay reached on an infield hit to the shortstop - then with Adron Chambers batting - stole second.  Chambers then hit a slicing line drive to left which fell safely in front of left fielder Marte - but he played this one extremely well - throwing a strike to home - but just a split second too late to nail the speedy Jay - who made a very nice fade-away slide to avoid the tag.

Sam Freeman - the sixth Cardinals' pitcher used by Matheny in this game - pitched one inning of scoreless relief for the win - his first (with no losses).

It was a crucial game to win - especially from a psychological perspective.  The Cardinals felt like they were never out of any game - and for the most part, they were right.






Monday, June 16, 2014

June 16, 2009 - Cards Clobber Verlander - Waino Tames Tigers

Tuesday, June 16, 2009 - At Busch Stadium III:  A classic pitching match-up between Cardinals' ace -  Adam Wainwright - and the Detroit Tigers' Justin Verlander - for all intents and purposes, was over after one inning.  Whereas Wainwright was able to escape a two-out bases loaded first-inning jam - retiring Brandon Inge on a long fly ball to the deepest reaches of center field - Verlander could not.

Yadier Molina's two-out bases loaded single off Verlander in the bottom of the first-inning scored two runs - and opened the floodgates.  Unnerved, Verlander then balked in another run.  His misfortune continued as light-hitting Joe Thurston brought in the fourth - and final - run of the inning with a double.

The rest of the game was elementary.  Wainwright controlled the Detroit lineup, while St Louis scored another run off Verlander before he was relieved of duty after just four innings - then continued the assault on three relievers - Robertson, Perry and Lyon - to tack on another six runs - featuring back-to back home runs by Albert Pujols (23) and Chris Duncan (5).

The only run Wainwright allowed came on a two-out sixth-inning home run by Brandon Inge (15).  As far as Wainwright and the Cardinals were concerned, they were happy that long ball didn't happen with the bases juiced - when Inge just missed hitting it out in the first-inning.  Yes, timing is everything.

The only other Detroit run came off reliever P.J. Walters - when Miguel Cabrera went deep in the eighth-inning - his 12th home run and 40th RBI of the season.  Strangely enough, the long since departed Inge had more home runs (15) and RBI (42) at this point in the season than the player widely regarded nowadays as the best hitter in the game.

In baseball, five years can - and usually does - bring about a lot of changes.  Some players improve with age, while others regress, even before hitting 30.

Tony Gwynn, who lost his battle with cancer earlier today, hit .394 at the age of 34, during the strike-shortened 1994 season - so people tend to forget how close he came to hitting .400, twenty years ago.  Seems like only yesterday.

By the way,  he should have won the '87 NL MVP Award - just for the record.

Sunday, May 18, 2014

May 9, 2006 - Waino's First MLB Win - May 10, 2002 - Renteria's Game Winning HR - May 11, 1964 - Javier's Game Winning HR

May 9, 2006 - On a cloudy 73 degree evening in St Louis, the Cardinals played host to the Colorado Rockies in their beautiful new ballpark- Busch Stadium III - with a nice crowd of 40,375 anticipating another Redbird victory.  The pitching match-up seemed like a mismatch, as the Cards had their ace, Chris Carpenter on the mound facing Colorado's Josh Fogg, a 29-year old journeyman with a career ERA around 5.  No problem?

The Cardinals struck early.  After a lead-off single by David Eckstein was erased on a double play grounder by John Rodriguez, Albert Pujols laced a double down the left field line.  Batting cleanup was Jim Edmonds, who promptly put St Louis up 1-0 with a line drive single to right.  However, that single first-inning run would be all the scoring the Redbirds would muster off Fogg, who limited St Louis to just three hits over the next six innings of work.

To no one's surprise, Chris Carpenter also pitched well, although the Rockies managed to score an unearned run in the third-inning, thanks to an error by shortstop David Eckstein and another by second baseman Aaron Miles.

The game remained tied heading into the seventh-inning.  With two out and nobody on base in the seventh, Rockies left fielder Matt Holliday, demonstrating his ability to hit in venues other than Coors Field - untied it with a home run to left field, giving Colorado its first lead of the game, 2-1.  After Fogg held the Cardinals scoreless in their half of the seventh, his night was over.  He would be in line for the win if the Colorado bullpen could protect the lead.  No such luck.

Carpenter's night was also over after seven innings of work, on the hook for a possible loss with his team trailing by a run.  Rookie Adam Wainwright, who would appear in 61 games for St Louis in '06, appeared in this one; setting Colorado down in order in the eighth-inning to keep it close.

Replacing Josh Fogg on the mound for the Rockies in the bottom of the eighth-inning was the venerable Jose Mesa, who was nearing the end of a nineteen year major league career.  At one time, Mesa was an elite closer, logging 40 or more saves four times, including an American League-leading 46 saves in 1995 while pitching for the American League champion Cleveland Indians.  But that was a long, long time ago.  Mesa, who was now just thirteen days shy of his 40th birthday, was no longer a closer.  And tonight, his role as setup man didn't go so well.

Leading off the inning was lead-off hitter David Eckstein, who did what good lead-off hitters do - get on base:  Ground ball single to left field.  The next scheduled hitter - John Rodriguez - was lifted for a pinch hitter - Juan Encarnacion - who reached on an infield hit on the right side of the diamond, moving Eckstein to second base.  Neither batter got particularly good wood on the pitches, but they managed to elude the defenders, putting Mesa in a two-on-nobody-out predicament.  The situation was exasperated by the fact that the best hitter on the planet - Albert Pujols - was now stepping into the batter's box.  Ten seconds later, he'd be circling the bases after depositing a Mesa offering 457 feet out to left field.  The three-run blast - already his 17th of the season - put the Cards up, 4-2, and suddenly put Adam Wainwright - who faced just three batters - in a position to pick up his first major league win.  Sure enough, he got it, as closer Jason Isringhausen pitched a perfect ninth-inning, striking out the side.

Win Number One was officially in the books for Waino, and nobody was happier about it than his mentor and pal, Chris Carpenter, whose stellar seven innings of work in this game didn't go to waste.

May 10, 2002 - The Cardinals had gotten off to a slow start in 2002, falling four games under .500 (15-19) prior to this Friday night contest at Cinergy Field in Cincinnati.  Their opponents for this game - the Reds (20-13) - currently occupied the top spot in the NL Central; 5.5 games ahead of the Cardinals.  That would be the largest deficit St Louis would experience for the season.  The comeback to the top would begin tonight, with a crowd of 29,008 to witness the soon-to-be-surging Cardinals defeat the inevitably fading Reds, by a score of 4-2.

The Cardinals put a quick first-inning run on the board against Reds starter Jimmy Haynes, on an RBI single from Jim Edmonnds - scoring Fernando Vina.  That would be the extent of the Cardinals' offense until a sixth-inning double by Albert Pujols preceded a Tino Martinez run-scoring single.

In the meantime, the Cardinals' starting pitcher - Jason Simontacchi - made it through five innings with just one run allowed, but ran into trouble of his own in the sixth-inning.  After the first two batters reached base, the call was made to the bullpen; Mike Mathews took over on the mound, but not for long; he walked the only batter he faced, loading the bases with nobody out.  Enter Gene Stechschulte, who got out of the jam with just one run scored.  The game was now tied, 2-2.

Meanwhile, the third pitcher of the evening for Cincinnati - Gabe White - retired the side in order in the seventh before issuing an eighth-inning one-out walk to Tino Martinez.  For some reason, Danny Graves was summoned from the bullpen to face Edgar Renteria.  Instead of preserving a 2-2 tie ballgame, Danny served up a hanging slider which Edgar deposited in the left field stands for what turned out to be the game-winning two-run home run.  Graves managed to get through the inning with no further damage, despite being roughed up for a couple more hits.

The beneficiary of the Renteria home run - Gene Stechschulte - improved his record to 3-1, with a little help from Dave Veres and Jason Isringhausen, who prevented any further scoring.  Gabe White, whose only mistake of the night was that one lousy base on balls - was tagged with the loss - with a lot of help from Danny Graves, and of course, Edgar Renteria.

May 11, 1964 - The Cardinals traveled to Philadelphia for this important Monday night game with the first-place Phillies, who were already three games in front of St Louis, barely a month into the schedule.  The outcome of this game would quickly be forgotten, but in hindsight, its significance can't be overstated; especially since the Cardinals clinched the pennant on the very last day of the season.

With a friendly crowd of 11,200 in attendance at historic Connie Mack Stadium, the Cardinals sent winless Ray Sadecki (0-3) to the mound; hoping to tame the potent Phillies' lineup, featuring the slugging rookie, Richie (Call me Dick) Allen.  Ray Culp started this one for the Phillies, and pitched brilliantly until the seventh-inning, when he probably wishes he could have one pitch back.  Unfortunately for Culp, there are no Mulligans in baseball (along with "no crying").

Sadecki had a shaky start to this one, as the aforementioned Allen drove in a first-inning run for Philadelphia with a two-base hit, but was later stranded at third.  In the second-inning, the Phillies parlayed a single, a walk, a balk and a ground out into another run.  They now led the Cardinals 2-0, and that's where the score remained until the Redbirds suddenly came alive in the seventh-inning.

After Ken Boyer struck out, and Tim McCarver grounded out - first baseman to the pitcher covering the bag for the out - Culp (perhaps a bit winded) ran into trouble.  Johnny Lewis lined a two-out single to center field, then with Charlie James batting, moved to second on a passed ball.  James then reached on an infield single deep in the hole at shortstop.  Lewis wisely didn't try to advance on the play.  This brought Julian Javier to the plate with a chance to be a hero.  Two on, two out; Cards down by two runs late in the game.

Javier, who would hit all of 12 home runs in '64, picked a good time to hit one now.  The three-run blast put the Cardinals in front of the shocked Phillies by a score of 3-2.

Sadecki escaped a bit of trouble in the bottom of the seventh, then cruised through the eighth and ninth, to bag his first win of the season.  He'd go on to win twenty; and the Redbirds certainly needed every one of those twenty wins to punch their ticket to a (victorious) World Series showdown with the New York Yankees.











Tuesday, April 1, 2014

April 1

April Fool's Day has not been kind to the St Louis Cardinals; rather, it has been a cruel joke three out of the four times the Redbirds have been scheduled to play on this practical joker's holiday.  Last year, for example, Adam Wainwright's opening day assignment in Arizona versus the Diamondbacks was a far cry from the gem he hurled last night in Cincinnati (no runs on three hits in seven innings, with nine strikeouts).  On April 1, 2013 Waino surrendered four runs (all earned) on eleven hits in just six innings of work.  Arizona tacked on a couple more runs en route to an easy 6-2 win.

Back in 2008, the Cardinals hosted the Colorado Rockies, as Kyle Lohse started for St Louis, worked five scoreless innings, and was in line to get the win when Yadier Molina broke a scoreless tie with a fifth-inning solo home run (sound familiar?).  Colorado was held in check until the eighth-inning, when our old friend Ryan Franklin retired nary a single batter, loading the bases on two singles and a base on balls.  By the time the mess was over, the Rockies had a 2-1 lead which they never relinquished, as Franklin chalked up another blown save and a loss in one fell swoop.

In Cincinnati last night, the bullpen held on to that precarious 1-0 lead, despite a rocky eighth-inning when poor defense had the Reds in a position to at least tie the game; perhaps even go ahead.

Going back to April 1, 2007, the defending World Champion Cardinals opened the season at home versus the New York Mets - the team they eliminated in a classic seven game NLCS just a few short months prior - and this time, the New Yorkers exacted some measure of revenge, as an ineffective and injured Chris Carpenter struggled through six innings, allowing six runs (five earned) on nine hits.  Future Hall of Famer Tom Glavine sailed through six innings to capture a 6-1 win.  Not only was 2007 a disaster for Carpenter, who was essentially shelved for the entire year with a bad shoulder - it was a disaster for the Redbirds as a whole.  Nothing seemed to go right all season, as the Redbirds finished below .500 for the only time since the beginning of the millennium.

We have to go all the way back to 2002 to experience the thrill of April Fool's Day victory for the Cardinals.  St Louis scored early and often en route to an easy 10-2 win over the visiting Colorado Rockies, as ace Matt Morris breezed through seven innings, allowing just a single run on five hits.  The 2001 Rookie of the Year - Albert Pujols - got off to a flying start to the new season with a pair of doubles in four trips to the plate, good for three runs batted in.  Cardinal fans would be treated to eleven Hall of Fame-caliber seasons to the player manager Tony LaRussa said was the best he ever managed.  No argument here.

The 2014 Cards seem to have a stacked deck; perhaps even the best team in baseball.  But with the way things have gone in the past on April Fool's Day, it's probably a good thing they had the night off this time around.

March 31

Prior to yesterday, the Cardinals have only played March baseball when it counted on three other occasions - in 1998, 2003, and the World Championship season of 2011.  Strangely enough, the Cardinals were winners in '98 and '03 - when they failed to make the playoffs - but came up short three years ago, losing an excruciating 11-inning home opener against the San Diego Padres - 5-3; clearly a game that should've been won.

Chris Carpenter started the game for St Louis, and pitched admirably, allowing just two runs in seven innings of work; good for a "no decision".  After Matt Holliday's one out solo home run in the bottom of the eighth-inning gave the Cardinals a 3-2 lead, closer Ryan Franklin promptly relinquished that lead with two outs in the top of the ninth-inning, serving up a home run ball of his own to Padres catcher Nick Hundley to dead centerfield.

The inspired Padres then pushed two more runs across the plate in the 11th-inning off somebody named Bryan Augenstein; then All-Star San Diego closer Heath Bell pitched a perfect bottom half to hand St Louis one of their most galling defeats in recent memory.

What made the day seem more like a Twilight Zone episode than ballgame was the 0 for 5 performance from future free agent Albert Pujols, who not only was hitless, he managed to ground into three double plays in front of the astonished Redbird faithful.  Despite the bad day at the plate by the distracted Cardinal first baseman, this defeat was a classic example of the team's Achilles Heal - an unreliable bullpen which frequently used gasoline to put out fires - a recipe for disaster.

What a difference three years makes.  In yesterday's exciting 1-0 win over the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ballpark, Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright pitched seven scoreless innings while battery mate Yadier Molina's seventh-inning home run off Reds starter Johnny Cueto was all the offense needed for Waino; then the bullpen - Neshek, Siegrist, Martinez, and Rosenthal - kept the Reds at bay, despite an adventurous eighth-inning, highlighted by sloppy defense.  In other years, this game may very easily have slipped away from the Redbirds.

Not this year; at least, not in Game One.  In 2011, the Cardinals would sneak into the postseason on the last day of the regular season, en route to an improbable World Championship.  This 2014
 edition may or may not make it all the way to the top of the baseball world, but one thing is clear:  This team is better; especially in the bullpen.









Saturday, March 1, 2014

2014 St Louis Cardinals Preview

Last season, the St Louis Cardinals posted the best record in the National League (97-65), then cruised through the NLDS and NLCS before eventually losing a six game World Series to the Boston Red Sox.  To better understand what may be in store for St Louis in 2014, here's a brief overview of last season's hitting, pitching, and fielding statistics (NL rank in parenthesis):

RUN DIFFERENTIAL +187 (1)

BA .269 (2) - OBP .332 (1) - SLG .401 (3)

RUNS 783 (1) - 2B 322 (1) - 3B 20 (12) - HR 125 (13) - SB 45 (15)

ERA 3.43 (5) - SO 1254 (5) - SV 44 (5)

FLD % .988 (1) - ERRORS 75 (1) - DP 177 (1) - DEF EFFICIENCY .691 (14) - RUNS SV -37 (14)

This is a very good team that in all likelihood, got even better during the offseason by addressing four areas of weakness:

(1) Offensive production at shortstop - featuring a .222 BA (second lowest in NL) and .307 OBP (third lowest in NL).  The fiscally responsible John Mozeliak signed free agent shortstop Jhonny Peralta to a four-year $53 million deal, just a couple of months after Peralta served a 50 game PED suspension as a member of the Detroit Tigers.  After doing his time, the well rested and clean Jhonny was welcomed back by his teammates just in time for the postseason, which didn't end the way Detroit would have liked; although the future Redbird hit well for his former mates; something that didn't go unnoticed by either the Cardinals' front office or JP's agent (presumably).  Peralta's track record has been good the last three seasons, averaging .278 BA and .438 SLG.  He should reach double digits in home runs for his new team and play above average defense.

(2) Speaking of defense, despite the high fielding percentage, the Cardinals were one of the worst teams in the NL in defensive efficiency - basic run prevention.  With rookie Kolton Wong projected to be the new starting second baseman, Matt Carpenter will move over to third base (his natural position).  Incumbent third baseman David Freese became the odd man out after an injury hampered season which produced just 9 home runs, .381 SLG, no speed on the bases, and limited range on defense.  He and reliever Fernando Salas were shipped to the LA Angels of Anaheim in exchange for Peter Bourjos and 22-year old outfield prospect Randal Grichuk.  When healthy, Bourjos is one of the best defensive centerfielders in the game, and will more than likely get the bulk of the playing time over Jon Jay, who had numerous misadventures on defense last season.  Thus, in one fell swoop, the Cardinals will be heading into the 2014 season significantly better defensively at three positions.  The extra bonus in the deal is Grichuk, who may develop into a bona-fide power hitter in the not-too-distant future.

 (3) Aside from Clayton Kershaw (go figure), the Cardinals had great difficulty winning against left handed pitching last season.  They signed former Dodger free agent second baseman Mark Ellis - a right handed batter who hits well against lefties - to a one year $5.25 million deal.  Ellis will be a solid defensive insurance policy in case Wong has trouble making the adjustment to major league pitching.  The previously mentioned additions of Jhonny Peralta and Peter Bourjos - both right handed hitters - should help the team fare better against southpaws this season.

(4) Team speed - or lack thereof - resulted in the Cardinals swiping a NL low 45 bases last season; plus a less than desirable defensive efficiency (previously mentioned).  The Cardinals proved that they can win despite these shortcomings.  However, with two new additions to the lineup - Bourjos and Wong - the stolen base will become a legitimate offensive weapon; and it's a good bet the team's defensive efficiency will be vastly improved as well.

PITCHING - Heading into the new season, the Cardinals pitching seems to be significantly stronger than the staff that posted the fifth lowest ERA (3.43) in the NL in 2013.  With Chris Carpenter permanently out of action, Kyle Lohse gone via free agency, and Jaime Garcia sidelined for most of the year (only 55 IP) with recurring shoulder problems, St Louis had to heavily rely on rookies or second year pitchers to eat up innings, along with veteran Jake Westbrook who was effective early in the season but had shoulder issues of his own as the season wore on.  The bullpen was especially shaky for much of the season, with a host of underperforming relievers not getting the job done on a consistent basis.  Edward Mujica became the closer by default, and to his credit, pitched admirably until the last month or so of the season when he either ran out of gas or simply lost his skills.  He became a free agent and somehow convinced the Red Sox to sign him.

This season, the Cardinals are loaded with young power arms that will either win spots in the five-man starting rotation or provide manager Mike Matheny with significantly better options out of the bullpen than he had for most of last year.  In fact, between the now departed Mitchell Boggs and the previously mentioned Fernando Salas (to Halos in Freese - Bourjos trade), six games that could easily have been won last year, were blown by this pair.

Barring injury, the St Louis bullpen will be a major strength - not a liability - this season.  In all likelihood, the left-handers coming out of the pen will include Randy Choate, Tyler Lyons, and Kevin Siegrist (50 SO in 39.2 IP to go with a ridiculous 0.45 ERA).

Two pitchers trying to return from injury - Jaime Garcia and Jason Motte - are still questionable for a healthy return to duty; any contributions from either of them will be a luxury.

Right-handed options out of the bullpen include Seth Maness and the young power-arms of setup man Carlos Martinez and closer Trevor Rosenthal (108 regular season SO in 75.1 IP).  The blown saves that plagued the Cardinals last year should be a thing of the past in 2014.

HITTING - Last season, the Cardinals led the National League with 783 runs scored despite hitting fewer home runs than all but two other NL teams.  They did it by hitting a MLB-record .330 with RISP, by grinding out a league high .332 OBP and by hitting more doubles than any other NL team - 322 (the sixth highest total in franchise history).  Matt Carpenter's 55 doubles not only led MLB, it was the most by a left-handed hitter in franchise history (breaking Stan Musial's record).  Yadier Molina's 44 two-base hits were the most by a catcher since Pudge Rodriguez hit 47 in 1996.

The type of relentless offensive attack the Cardinals put together last season may be unsustainable in 2014.  However, the team should be significantly better defensively and more consistent with their pitching; overall, a more balanced team, still able to maintain a favorable run differential over the course of the regular season.

The Opening Day lineup should look something like this:

Matt Carpenter - third base (led MLB with 126 runs scored last season)

Peter Bourjos - centerfield (led AL with 11 triples in 2012)

Matt Holliday - leftfield (22 home runs last season)

Allen Craig - rightfield (97 RBIs despite missing most of Sept last season)

Matt Adams - first base (17 home runs and team-leading .503 SLG last season)

Yadier Molina - catcher (career high 80 RBIs last season)

Jhonny Peralta - shortstop (significant offensive upgrade)

Kolten Wong - second base (must prove he can hit like he did in minors)

Waiting in the wings is the highly rated prospect, Oscar Taveras - a left-handed power hitting outfielder.  He may well slug his way into the lineup, forcing manager Mike Matheny to juggle Matt Adams and Allen Craig around to make room for the rookie.

The projected starting rotation:

Adam Wainwright (NL-leading 241.2 IP last season)

Michael Wacha (NLCS MVP as a rookie last season)

Shelby Miller (3.06 ERA as a rookie last season)

Lance Lynn (198 SO in 201.2 IP last season)

Joe Kelly (2.69 ERA in 124 IP last season)

Jaime Garcia may prove healthy enough to slide into the rotation, but any sustained work from him seems unlikely, given his history of shoulder trouble.  Tyler Lyons, a promising 24-year old lefty may earn a spot in the rotation, if any of the above have performance or injury issues over the course of the season.

PROGNOSIS - The Cardinals should be able to repeat as NL Central champions.  In fact, barring injury, they may prove to be even better than they were last year.  Many baseball analysts now rate them as the number one team in MLB, based on how much they improved their roster this off season.  

If all goes as expected, St Louis will be playing postseason baseball once again in 2014 - for the fourth straight year - a feat they have never accomplished in franchise history.  Of course, there's a first time for everything.
 






Wednesday, July 25, 2012

Biggest Win of the Season for Redbirds

Without being overly dramatic, it's time the Cardinals step up and start winning some games; especially games against teams like the Dodgers...and pitchers like Clayton Kershaw.  They did, on Tuesday night.

It didn't look good when the Redbirds were in a 2-0 hole against the team that has owned St Louis for a frustrating eight consecutive games, with last year's Cy Young Award winner appearing to be in complete control.  All the weight of that miserable streak seemed to be lifted off the collective shoulders of the Cards when Adam Wainwright ripped one in the gap to cut the deficit to a single run in the fifth inning.  The real fun began in a six-run sixth; featuring a bases loaded walk to Waino, when the score was only 3-2 in favor of the Redbirds.  Open the flood gates; exit Clayton Kershaw, who gave up a career high eight runs to the team that has been the highest scoring squad in the NL all season long, but had scored a measly 21 runs in the previous eight games to LA - all losses.

With Cincinnati winning again, St Louis remains six games out, which sounds a whole lot better than seven games out.  Of course, timing is everything, and the Reds happen to be playing the Houston Astros at a time the Astros haven't won much of anything for the past month.  Still, the Reds are definitely winning when they have to - for the time being.  Much can happen over the final two months of the season.  Actually, much can happen over the final month of season (Anybody remember 2011?).

This season has so many similarities to last season, it's almost scary.  Last year, it was Chris Carpenter rising to the occasion in the second half to pitch the Cardinals to a playoff berth, with Waino on the sidelines.  This year, it seems like Waino is taking on that role as his buddy recuperates.  It would be nice to have both aces dealing in 2013; wouldn't it?

In the meantime, St Louis has a playoff berth to capture this year, and for the first time since early May, they appear to be heading in the right direction.  Tuesday night's outcome could be the catalyst that gets them rolling, once and for all.  We'll see.


Friday, April 20, 2012

First-Place Cardinals Defy Conventional Wisdom

The 2012 season is barely two weeks old, and the Cardinals continue to find themselves perched atop the NL Central with a record of 9-4; that's not surprising, based on the team's impressive overall performance in both hitting and pitching.  How they got there; that's the big surprise.

Indeed, the Cardinals' early success in 2012 seems to fly in the face of conventional wisdom, but as we discovered in 2011, that's nothing new for these high-flying World Champion Redbirds.

First of all, St Louis was not supposed to maintain their status as an elite MLB team when free agent superstar Albert Pujols abandoned his eleven-year Cardinal legacy in favor of the bigger payday Angels owner Arte Moreno offered.  After all, when a team loses the face of its franchise - particularly of the magnitude of King Albert - they're not expected to easily recover from that loss.  The signing of free agent Carlos Beltran was considered to be a step in the right direction, at best; not the solution.

Meanwhile, Tony LaRussa's surprising retirement, along with pitching coach Dave Duncan's indefinite leave of absence to tend to his ailing wife, was considered to be another insurmountable obstacle for the team to overcome; especially with an "inexperienced" manager - Mike Matheny - taking over the helm.

As the Cardinals were getting the kinks out during Spring Training, the ace of the pitching staff  - Chris Carpenter - experienced a reoccurring shoulder problem which will keep him out of commission for an indefinite period of time.  Forced into the starting rotation was the promising right-handed hurler, Lance Lynn, who displayed remarkable postseason poise coming out of TRL's bullpen, which the Cardinals hoped would translate into becoming a successful starter for Mike Matheny; at least until Carp's return to health.

With an aging core of veterans who have had a history of health issues, it wasn't long before one of those aging veterans - Lance Berkman - came up lame in the fifth game of the season, with a slightly torn right calf muscle.  After missing the next five games, Berkman's return to the starting lineup was short-lived; a re-aggravated calf muscle while chasing after a foul pop fly now has him on the 15-day disabled list.

Yet, through all the preceding turmoil, as of April 19, the post-Albert Pujols-Redbirds have compiled MLB's second highest team batting average (.293) and slugging percentage (.496) - trailing only the Texas Rangers - to go along with a third best on base percentage (.354) - trailing only Texas and the New York Yankees.  Their home run total (19) and run production (73) is also third best in all of baseball.  What makes all this seem even more remarkable  is the slow start from perennial-slugger Matt Holliday, whose current batting average is barely above the Mendoza Line (.203) - although he has contributed three home runs and seven RBIs to the cause.

What shouldn't have surprised anybody was the immediate impact David Freese provided in the heart of the Cardinals lineup; his first at bat of the new season drove in two runs, and he now has 13 RBIs to lead the team; although he's missed a handful of games with a sore finger, causing obvious concern about his durability for a full season.

Still, for the rest of this potent St Louis lineup, the beat goes on; the sweet swing of Carlos Beltran has already produced five home runs; twice, in a span of three days, the Redbirds slammed three home runs in the same inning; proving there is plenty of power up and down that lineup, despite the absence of Albert Pujols from that lineup, who has yet to connect for his first regular season home run while dressed up like an Angel (He did have seven long balls during Spring Training, however).

Perhaps even more startling than the Cardinals' power surge is how well the Cardinals pitching staff - minus the disabled-Chris Carpenter - has performed in the early going; surviving not only the loss of Carpenter, but the ineffectiveness of Adam Wainwright (0-3 - 9.88 ERA), who is still trying to regain the form that made him a twenty-game winner in 2010, before undergoing Tommy John surgery in early 2011.

Aside from Waino, the only other pitcher to sustain a loss this season has been Mark Rzepczynski (0-1 - 3.00 ERA).  The rest of the staff has been perfect; absolutely perfect, in accounting for the team's nine wins thus far in 2012.  In fact, their pitching line resembles something out of the Dead Ball Era, or 1968's Year of the Pitcher:

                             W-L            ERA       OPP BA      WHIP
Jake Westbrook      2-0             0.64         .146             0.86
Kyle Lohse             2-0             0.89         .149             0.59
Lance Lynn            2-0             1.50         .146             0.75
Jaime Garcia           2-0             3.06         .338            1.64
Jason Motte            1-0             1.80         .176            0.60

Of course, Adam Wainwright will soon start getting his share of wins, while some of these guys may even lose a few games along the way.  However, based on what we've seen in the early going, the quality of the Cardinals' starting rotation is excellent; it's for real.  Assuming a healthy and effective Chris Carpenter joins in on the fun, the Cardinals appear to be a championship-caliber team ready to defend their title.

It's apparent this team, from top to bottom, is loaded with talent.  Above all else, this team has displayed remarkable character and resiliency; a trait that became evident during last year's remarkable postseason run, and appears even stronger in 2012.

It's no wonder so many rabid fans of the Redbirds believe this team has what it takes to win back-to-back World Series Championships, with the familiar rallying cry:  "12 in '12!"  Why not?


Monday, March 26, 2012

Carpenter's Injury May Be Blessing in Disguise

The much anticipated reunion of the Cardinals' top-of-the-rotation starting pitchers - Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright - will have to wait a while - maybe quite a while.  While Waino appears fully recovered from last year's Tommy John surgery, Carp is being shut down for an "indefinite" period of time, due to a pitching shoulder weakened by nerve inflammation in his neck.

Of course, this isn't good news for the Cardinals; especially if Carpenter's rehabilitation process takes longer than expected.  But, what can be "expected" from such a vague prognosis?  For Carpenter and the Cardinals, "indefinite" could well be "deja vu all over again".

This injury is nothing new; the same sort of problem ended Carp's season prematurely, in 2004; denying him the chance to pitch in the postseason for the first time in his career.  That may have been a blessing in disguise, however; even a healthy Carpenter could have done little to prevent that disastrous four game World Series sweep the Redbirds suffered at the hands of the Red Sox; Boston's first title since World War I.

The following season, the well-rested and healthy Cards ace came back strong, winning 21 games en route to his first NL Cy Young Award.  The big right-hander made the most of his first postseason experience, winning both of his starts; alas, the team came up short in the NLCS, losing to the Wild Card Astros in six games.  The 'stros celebrated their first trip to the World Series in franchise history by losing four straight to the Chicago White Sox; coincidentally, the South Side's first title since World War I, as well.

While the Cardinals stumbled through the 2006 season, somehow hanging on to win their third straight division title with just 83 wins, Carp bagged 16 of them; he then tacked on another three wins in the postseason, including one in the shocking five-game World Series annihilation of the Detroit Tigers.

However, victory came with a huge price.  Carpenter's 2007 season ended abruptly, sustaining an elbow injury during his six-inning Opening Night loss to the Mets.  The subsequent surgery and rehabilitation process cost Carp most of the 2008 season, as well.  Only able to make three starts that year, his 0-1 record matched 2007's disappointment.  Not surprisingly, the pitching-thin Cardinals failed to reach the postseason each year.

When Carpenter rebounded to a 17-4 record in 2009, it helped propel the Cardinals to another division title; however, a late season slump carried over into a brief postseason run; Carp lost his start against the Dodgers in the NLDS, and the momentum carried LA to a three game sweep.  Perhaps lost in the disappointing conclusion to the season was just how well Carp pitched until the end; his 2.24 ERA and 182 ERA+ led the National League, along with his .810 winning percentage, but it wasn't quite good enough to earn his second Cy Young Award; San Francisco's Tim Lincecum bagged his second in a row, instead.

Carpenter pitched well in 2010 (16-9), with a NL leading 35 games started; and his buddy Adam Wainwright pitched extremely well (20-11), while starting 33 games of his own that season; however, the Cardinals failed to win the division title for the first time when having a healthy and effective Carp in the rotation, from start to finish.  The team seemed to be torn with dissension; featuring a well-publicized riff between Cards skipper Tony LaRussa and center fielder, Colby Rasmus.

The 2011 season would end in great triumph for Carpenter and the Cardinals, but it began with the ominous news that Wainwright and his 20 wins would be lost for the season, undergoing Tommy John surgery.  When free agent-to-be Albert Pujols got off to an uncharacteristically slow start, the team seemed destined for another disappointing campaign.  Carpenter himself pitched poorly during the first half of the season, compiling just a 4-7 record in 19 starts, with a fairly high 3.85 ERA.

When the front office dealt the sullen Rasmus off to Toronto shortly before the trade deadline, for some much-needed pitching help, the roster had begun to gel.  The rest is history; as Pujols, Berkman and an emerging David Freese led the offensive charge down the stretch, while an inspired Carpenter reasserted his dominance on the mound, going 7-2 over his final 15 starts, posting an ERA under 3.  By season's end, Carpenter had pitched a NL leading 237.1 innings, although notching a rather modest total of 11 wins; but the best was yet to come in an improbable  postseason filled with historic magic.

Carp's fourth, and final postseason win of '11 came in Game Seven of the World Series.  By that time, the durable hurler had tacked on an additional 36 innings of work to his log, bringing the grand total for the year to 273.1.  Perhaps Carpenter is once again paying the price for another championship.  Five years ago, the price was quite steep; two lost seasons.

This time around, the Cardinals are hoping for a more favorable outcome.  If it means just a couple of months on the shelf for the big right-handed ace to fully recover; that would be a bargain.  Having a well-rested and healthy Carpenter back in time for this season's stretch run could be just what the doctor ordered.

That's why Carp's latest injury may, in fact, be a blessing in disguise.  Only time will tell.







Monday, March 12, 2012

Healthy Roster Could Make Redbird History

Albert Pujols' final season as a member of the St Louis Cardinals began ominously; before the team had even assembled for Spring Training, Adam Wainwright had already undergone season-ending Tommy John surgery.  Meanwhile, the contract negotiations between Pujols and the Cardinals front office were at a standstill, casting a further pall on a team in disarray.  Not unexpectedly, most experts picked the Cardinals no better than third place in the NL Central; certainly not good enough to reach the postseason.

Pujols began the season poorly, clearly distracted by his uncertain future, and increasingly irritated by a relentless media's repetitious and mundane interrogations.  Still, his presence in the lineup alone certainly had a positive effect on the team's fortunes.  As opposing teams focused most of their attention on containing Pujols, perhaps they took the rest of the lineup too lightly.  Newly acquired free agent Lance Berkman picked up much of the slack early on, rebounding nicely from an unproductive and injury-plagued 2010 season.  In fact, the entire Cards lineup consistently generated enough offense to lead the National League in all the key offensive categories:

RUNS SCORED - 762
BA - .273
OBP - .341
SLG - .425

The fact that the Cardinals barely made it into the postseason with win number 90 in game number 162 made them huge NLDS underdogs squaring off against the NL East champion Philadelphia Phillies; who were by contrast, coming off  a franchise-record 102 regular season wins.

What the experts failed to grasp was how the Cardinals had dramatically improved their bullpen with several key mid-season acquisitions; turning its weakest link into one of great strength by the end of August.  Even so, to understand how frustrating the season had been, the team had managed to save just 47 out of 73 opportunities.  Only the Washington Nationals managed to blow more save opportunities, converting just 47 out of 77 chances.

Of course, the Cardinals didn't go on to lose all 26 of the games which they held a lead; they had merely allowed the opposition to "get back into the game" with a reasonable chance of sending the Cardinals to another galling defeat.  Exactly how many times that happened is unknown (to me), although I'm sure there are  bound to be some saber-metrics geeks floating around out there who know every mundane detail in each blown save, and can document the actual number of Redbird losses that resulted in those cases.  For the sake of argument, I'm going to assume they could have won ten more games if they had the same bullpen that helped facilitate their late season and postseason success.  In other words, they should have easily won 100 regular season games in 2011.  That's how good they really were when they rolled through the last month of the regular season, and continued rolling all the way to a World Championship.

Obviously, losing Albert Pujols changes the dynamic of the Cardinals, heading into the 2012 season.  For all those experts who felt the Cards were merely "lucky" to have won it all last season, they are quick to give the predictable knee-jerk reaction; no postseason play (again), guys.  So what else is new?

A couple of weeks ago, Cards pitcher Adam Wainwright created a slight stir when he told reporters he thought the team would actually be a little better in 2012 than they were in 2011; even with Pujols gone.  I agree; not only will the pitching staff be significantly better with Waino's return to the starting rotation, all the other "core" players will be returning, and at least starting the season in good playing condition (aside from Allen Craig's slightly delayed start).

Also, free agent acquisition Carlos Beltran should be able to at least come close to replacing the 2011 production Pujols generated; and that's not such a bad deal.  Here's how both stacked up in 2011, along with a look at five other key players:

             G     R     RBI     HR     BA     OBP     SLG
Pujols   147  105    99       37      .299     .366      .541
Beltran  142   78     84       22      .300     .385      .525
Berkman 145  90    94       31      .301     .412      .547
Holiday   124  83    75       22      .296     .388      .525
Craig       75   33    40       11      .315     .362      .555
Freese     97   41    55       10      .297     .350      .441
Molina   139   55    65       14      .305     .349      .463

It's interesting to note that none of these players appeared in as many as 150 games last season, so injuries were a bit of an issue, especially for Allen Craig and David Freese.  If the Cardinals are going to silence the naysayers in 2012, both Craig and Freese need to avoid injury and pick up where they left off last postseason, with that lumber in their hands.

This is a team that could realistically win back-to-back World Championships for the first in franchise history - despite losing Pujols.  Albert is still a great player and appears poised to have a monster season with his new team, and a good bet to win another Most Valuable Player Award.  I think the Angels are clearly one of the elite teams in the American League now; I wouldn't be surprised to see them representing the American League in the World Series this time around.

That would be an interesting World Series, pitting the former Cardinal icon who apparently felt under- appreciated in St Louis, against his old team who would be trying to serve notice that they're still the best in baseball - with or without King Albert.










Thursday, December 22, 2011

Can Reshuffled Cards Do It Again?

After pulling off that improbable - actually, impossible - World Series triumph over the Texas Rangers a couple of months ago, the St Louis Cardinals will enter the 2012 season with a new manager - Mike Matheny - whose biggest challenge will be taking over a team that no longer has the Game's Greatest Player on its roster.  The good news for the Cardinals' front office:  The Game's Greatest Player is no longer on the payroll.

Certainly, losing a guy who usually drives in well over 100 runs each year is going to put pressure on the new lineup; but the Cards just signed 34-year old outfielder Carlos Beltran to a two-year-$26 million deal; an amount roughly one-tenth as much as the ten-year contract the Angels negotiated with King Albert Pujols - The Game's Greatest Player.  Maybe Angels owner Artie Moreno can afford to shell out over a quarter of a billion bucks to a player who will more than likely be a DH or bench player in another five years or so.

The Cardinals offered a measley $210 million-10-year deal to the former Cardinals icon.  What an insult.  What were they thinking?  Hmm.  Maybe they were thinking/hoping  he'd turn it down, figuring they could spend the money on other items, such as moderately-priced free-agents like Carlos Beltran.  Or contract extensions on guys like David Freese and Adam Wainwright, among others.  There are lots of possibilities for the frugal front office to keep the roster stocked with good, young ballplayers, in lieu of overpriced aging icons.

Obviously, with Pujols no longer a part of the Cardinals' lineup heading into the 2012 season, the challenge of repeating as World Champions becomes all the more difficult.  Although the Redbirds have now won eleven titles - the most of any NL team - the franchise has never won back-to-back Fall Classics.  In fact, the last NL team to accomplish the feat was the fabled Big Red Machine - the Cincinnati Reds, in 1975 and 1976.  Prior to that, the New York Giants defeated Babe Ruth's Yankees in 1921 and 1922, before the Bambino and Company took care of business in 1923.  Strangely enough, those lovable losers - the Chicago Cubs - were at one time hard-core winners, with back-to-back World Championships in 1907 and 1908.  Great memories, eh Cubs fans?  Sorry.

So, what are the chances of repeating for the Redbirds?  Past history suggests it's unlikely.  Losing the services of Albert Pujols suggests it's even more unlikely.  Although the current roster is loaded with talent, it has also been injury-prone.  Gambling on an aging player's ability to stay injury-free for an entire season is a risky proposition; but let's face it, not gambling on oft-injured free-agents like Rafael Furcal and Carlos Beltran has no upside potential.  If they manage to stay healthy and play in 140 or more games in '12, that would bode well for the Redbirds' chances of winning back-to-back World Series titles.  It wouldn't hurt if the Cards could also have the services of David Freese for an entire, injury-free season.  Wow.

Every time I think of Freese, I think of Game 6 - the most miraculous victory in World Series history.  The great sportswriter, Jason Stark, supplied us with some fascinating tid-bits of information about Game 6, in case anyone doubted the extent of the miracles that happened in that contest:

* The Cardinals trailed in that game five different times before finally winning it.  No team in World Series history had ever done that.  The Cardinals - in 19,387 regular season games - had never won a game after trailing five different times.  Never.

* In the previous 1327 post season games played, no team had ever scored in the 8th, 9th, 10th, and 11th innings.  Of course, in the 9th inning, St Louis was down to its last strike before extending the game with Freese's two-run game-tying triple.  Likewise, they were down to their last strike in the 10th inning before Lance Berkman's game-tying single plated a jubilant, skipping Jon Jay.  The last time any team was in that same situation was in the '86 World Series - the Miracle Mets in Game 6 - when the Red Sox managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, to perpetuate the Curse of the Bambino.

Of course, the Redbirds' unlikely post season berth resulted from an amazing stretch run, combined with the total collapse of the team they were pursuing - the Atlanta Braves.  With just five games left to play, the Cards still trailed the Braves by three games.  Incredibly, the Braves lost all five of those games while the Cards won four out of five.  How often is that sort of thing going to happen?

It's interesting to note, the 1985 Cardinals won 101 regular season games, and never lost a game entering the 9th inning with a lead; that is, until Game 6 of the World Series.  The 2011 Cardinals won just 90 regular season games, losing eleven games when they held a 9th inning or later lead.  In other words, they should have won 101 games last season.

Had the Cardinals actually won 101 games last season, perhaps their five-game NLDS conquest of the Phillies wouldn't have been so shocking.  Actually, the way they won Game 2 was quite shocking.  Staked to a 4 - 0 lead, Phillies pitcher Cliff Lee wound up on the losing end of a 5 - 4 decision.  In his career, Cliff Lee is now 94 - 2 whenever he's ahead by four or more runs.  Strangely enough, the winning pitcher on both occasions was Octavial Dotel.


I don't know if all those miracles that happened for the Cardinals in 2011 will somehow balance out against them in some sort of weird cosmic-way in 2012.  I always feel slightly uncomfortable whenever so-called experts predict St Louis to fare well in anything; they're usually wrong.  As luck would have it, three analysts on the MLB Network - Larry Bowa, Dave Valle, and Mitch "Wild Thing" Williams unanimously picked the reshuffled Cards to win the NL Central in 2012. 


It may be unrealistic to expect another trip to the World Series for the Cardinals in 2012, but after last year's non-stop barrage of miracles, it actually may be unrealistic for Cards' fans to expect anything less than another World Series championship.  For those keeping score at home, that would be 12 in '12...


http://www.amazon.com/St-Louis-Cardinals-IQ-Ultimate/dp/0983792259/ref=cm_pdp_books_itm_title_5