Is Alan Trammell the Most Underrated Player in MLB History?

There is little doubt that the recently retired icon - New York Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter ('95 - '14) - will be a first ballot Hall of Famer; and rightfully so.  Playing his entire career in New York, Jeter was an integral part of five world championship teams; seemingly doing everything right when the national spotlight was shining the brightest.  The media loved him and so did the vast majority of fans - not just in New York - but everywhere.

On the other hand, there is little doubt that former Detroit Tigers shortstop Alan Trammell ('77 - '96) - who is actually ranked one notch higher (#11 all-time) than Derek Jeter on baseball-reference.com - will not even come close for induction, for the 14th straight year.  Most people probably don't even know he's still on the ballot.  Then again, most people have no clue about Trammell's Hall of Fame-caliber career; worse yet, most Hall of Fame voters from the BBWAA have no clue.

Last year, Trammell only got 20.8% of the vote; proving that nearly 80% of those voting never really bothered to research the career accomplishments of this unassuming former elite player.  A quick look on baseball-reference.com would do the trick.

Here's what we would discover:

*There are 21 shortstops currently in the Hall of Fame

*Only 8 of those Hall of Fame shortstops had better Cooperstown credentials than Trammell

*The average career WAR (Wins Above Replacement) for Hall of Fame shortstops is 66.7

*Trammell's career WAR is 70.4

*The average 7-year peak WAR for Hall of Fame shortstops is 42.8

*Trammell's 7-year peak WAR is 44.6

*The average JAWS (average of career & 7-year peak WAR) for Hall of Fame shortstops is 54.7

*Trammell's JAWS is 57.5

*Trammell's career slash line: .285 BA/.352 OBP/.415 SLG - (110 OPS+) - This compares favorably with Hall of Fame shortstops (typically a position geared towards defense - not offense)

*Trammell won 4 Gold Glove Awards - deserved 7 - Career dWAR is + 22.0 (that's good)

*Derek Jeter won 5 Gold Glove Awards - deserved 0 - Career dWAR is - 9.7 (that's not good)

*Trammell's postseason career was far more limited than Jeter's (13 total games compared to 158); however, Trammell's performance was outstanding (.333/.404/.588 - 3 HR - 7 R - 9 RBI).  In fact, when Tigers won '84 World Series, Trammell was MVP (.450/.500/.800 - 2 HR - 5 R - 6 RBI).

Playing in New York during the Yankees' reign of terror (to the rest of MLB), Jeter had moments of greatness that will forever be etched into our national consciousness:  The backhand flip to retire a lumbering Jason Giambi at home plate in the 2001 ALCS; and most prominently, his dramatic November 1, 2001 World Series opposite-field walk-off home run to beat the D-backs in Game 5.  "He is Mr November!"  That's some heavy marketing and America was buying the product - a sure-fire Hall of Famer.

Prior to the advent of defensive metrics, Jeter was widely regarded as an excellent defensive shortstop (erroneously); hence the five Gold Gloves.  What helped perpetuate that myth was his flashy method of fielding ground balls in the hole; and with his momentum carrying him towards the left field line, he would jump and complete the pass to the first baseman for the out.  Very stylish.  Even more dramatic was a famous catch he made in foul territory; running full speed, when he grabbed the ball, then catapulted into the stands with total disregard for life and limb.  That play alone guaranteed him a Gold Glove for three more years.

Trammell, on the other hand, fielded his position so smoothly, he made difficult plays look routine; but he had terrific range and hardly ever made a mistake.  He was so consistent, it was boring; and his splendid defensive prowess was never fully appreciated.  That's the problem.  The typical fan (or Hall of Fame voter) scrutinizes a player's batting average, home runs, runs scored and RBI's.  Unless they're making sensational diving plays and barehanded grabs, they pay no attention to their defense.  However, we should know that there are two ways to enhance a team's run differential over their competition:  (1) Run production and (2) run prevention.  Of course, run production gets the most attention.  We love those big home runs; alas, we rarely notice the runs saved from great glove work.

However, advanced metrics enables us to specifically measure the "cause and effect" of a player's defensive prowess - or lack thereof.  A good defensive player like Trammell essentially creates runs for his team by shutting down the opposition on a regular basis - by flashing the leather; and over the course of his career, Trammell's defense was worth 81 runs.

Unfortunately for Jeter and the Yankees, that five-time Gold Glove winning shortstop cost his team 182 runs over the course of his career.  For some reason, I don't think very many people know that; or if presented with that information, would acknowledge it.  "Just hogwash; fancy-schmancy saber-metric garbage", they would say.  I would have to do some research, but I'm fairly certain no five-time Gold Glove winning shortstop has ever been so bad defensively to essentially cause 182 runs to disappear - evaporate - over their career.  Poof!  It's a good thing he could hit.

In five years, when Jeter's name first appears on a Hall of Fame ballot, it's a safe bet he'll be voted into Cooperstown; and rightfully so.  Meanwhile, Alan Trammell will no doubt be passed over until his name is removed from the ballot, altogether.

Then, he'll have to wait for the opportunity to appear on a Veteran's Committee ballot ten, fifteen or twenty years down the road.  Maybe by then, more enlightened members of that future committee will judge the player on his true merits; maybe not.

Maybe he'll continue to be major league baseball's most underrated player.  That would be a shame.

10 (Possibly Controversial) Hall of Fame Selections

I don't have the privilege of casting an official BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot, but if I did, I'm pretty sure a couple of my selections would raise the ire of two-thirds of the general population; but so be it.

Also, since the maximum number of candidates eligible to receive votes on a single ballot is ten, I'm forced to leave off a couple of guys who clearly have Hall of Fame credentials (baseball-reference.com ranks every player at each position, for comparison); but my hands are tied by Cooperstown.  Sorry.  Maybe next year.

My votes go to the most qualified, not necessarily the most popular.  They are:

Craig Biggio - After coming up just a bit short last year with 74.8% of the vote, I hope he doesn't have to play the waiting game any longer.  His career numbers are compelling, with 3060 hits in his 20-years with the Astros (112 OPS+); not a particularly great defensive player, but good enough overall to be ranked #14 all-time for second basemen (his primary position).

Mike Piazza - Clearly the best hitting catcher in MLB history (.308/.377/.545 - 143 OPS+), with moderate defensive liabilities during his 16-year career; but not enough to justify exclusion from the Hall of Fame; however, with the PED issue still raging among the voting ranks of the BBWAA, I'd be surprised if he gets in this year, despite being ranked #5 all-time for catchers.

Jeff Bagwell - His 15-year career was hampered by injuries, but the slugging first baseman still posted HOF-caliber numbers (.297/.408/.540 - 149 OPS+) and is ranked #6 all-time at his position.  He'll more than likely get in within the next 2-3 years, barring any shocking revelation that he did in fact, juice.  There's still too much suspicion within the voting ranks to be a likely inductee in 2015 - especially with the new competition coming up the ranks.

Tim Raines - So far, being the second-best lead-off hitter in MLB history as well as the eighth-best left fielder hasn't been good enough for induction.  Go figure.  In a career that spanned 23 seasons, Raines posted excellent offensive numbers (.294/.385/.425 - 123 OPS+) plus he stole 808 bases!

Roger Clemens - Of course, he's not getting in any time soon, but the third greatest pitcher in MLB history (354-184 - 3.12 ERA - 143 ERA+) won 7 Cy Young Awards, had a 12-8 postseason record - including a perfect 3-0 in World Series play and was on 2 World Series winners:  '99 & '00 New York Yankees.  His controversial career spanned 24 seasons.

Barry Bonds - Also not getting in the Hall of Fame any time soon, but the greatest left fielder in MLB history (.298/.444/.607 - 182 OPS+) played 22 seasons, retiring with the single season (73) and career 762) home run records.  He's probably the most despised player in MLB history, but his talent was certainly remarkable - a first ballot Hall of Famer if he had refrained from the temptation of hitting the juice in the wake of the McGwire single season home run record (70), set in '98.

Curt Schilling - There are 59 starting pitchers already enshrined at Cooperstown, and Schilling is ranked #27 all-time (216-146 - 3.46 ERA - 127 ERA+); and that's before including his astounding postseason record (11-2 - 2.23 ERA, including 4-1 - 2.06 ERA in World Series play).  Oh yeah, he was co-MVP (with Randy Johnson) in the 2001 World Series as a member of the Arizona Diamondbacks, leading that franchise to its first championship; then 3 years later, helped the Bambino-cursed Red Sox to their first title since 1918 - bloody sock and all; then did it again for Boston in 2007.

Alan Trammell - This may be the most underrated player in MLB history.  Overlooked by the BBWAA who apparently viewed him as good, but not great as a 20-year fixture at shortstop for the Detroit Tigers.  His offensive numbers (.285/.352/.415 - 110 OPS+) compare favorably to most shortstops already inducted into Cooperstown and his defensive skills were far better than he was given credit for; winning four Gold Gloves, but deserving at least seven.  Baseball-reference.com ranks him #11 all-time at his position, one notch higher than the universally heralded Derek Jeter.
Of course, he won't even come close this time around, as usual; but he belongs.

Randy Johnson - Making his appearance on the ballot for the first time, he's certain to get at least 90% of the vote; and rightfully so.  Ranked #9 all-time for starting pitchers (303-166 - 3.29 ERA - 135 ERA+), the Big Unit played 22 seasons, highlighted by his 3-0 - 1.04 ERA in the 2001 World Series win over the Yankees.

Pedro Martinez - The best pitcher in the AL during the height of the Steroids Era (219-100 - 2.93 ERA - 154 ERA+), ranked #21 all-time following his 18 year career.  Like Johnson, he should have no trouble getting in on his first try.

Just missing the cut on my imaginary ballot were first-time candidate John Smoltz (#58 all-time for starting pitchers) and the great and highly underrated Larry Walker (#10 all-time for right fielders).  Smoltz has an excellent chance of getting enough votes on his first try; Walker has zero chance; unfairly downgraded by his tremendous offensive production at hitter-friendly Coors Field during his time with the Colorado Rockies.  Yet, his career numbers were staggering (.313/.400/.565 - 141 OPS+), and he did it for 17 seasons.  Sooner or later, he's got to get in.

For now, it looks like Johnson and Martinez will definitely get in; Biggio has about a 50/50 shot, and Smoltz maybe slightly less than 50/50.  If Cooperstown is really the final destination for the all-time greats of baseball, this ballot currently has the top candidates, based on performance; not hype.

HOF Class of 2013 Flunking Out

The list of former MLB players eligible for Hall of Fame consideration for the first time in 2013 includes a pair that are among the best to ever play the game - Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens.  They also happen to be among the list of players suspected of using performance enhancing drugs, so there's no way either one will be getting into Cooperstown this year.

In fact, it looks doubtful any of this year's new candidates - or holdovers from previous years for that matter - will be getting enough votes to be enshrined.  At last check, even Craig Biggio - what many consider a HOF lock - is only hovering around 70% of the votes (75% is required to be inducted).  It seems as though the voters are making a collective statement:  Nobody gets in.

That's a shame, because there are at least a dozen (try fifteen) candidates that are worthy of Hall of Fame consideration; most notably:

Craig Biggio
Jeff Bagwell
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Fred McGriff
Larry Walker
Mike Piazza
Curt Schilling
Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Lee Smith
Dale Murphy
Don Mattingly
Edgar Martinez
Mark McGwire

I suppose if I were actually voting, I'd have to leave five of these selections off my ballot (ten is the maximum number of players allowed).  Even though Bonds and Clemens have no chance of getting in, I'd still be compelled to cast my ballot in their favor.  I'm not sure how much the PEDs padded their numbers, but I believe they had HOF credentials before they started juicing; besides, they weren't  alone. 

Actually, I wouldn't want to drop any of the above off my hypothetical ballot, so it's probably a good thing I don't get to vote.

Numbers Don't Lie - Morris Not HOF Material

Jack Morris had a nice career, but was it really a Hall of Fame career?  His won-loss record (254-186 - .577) is just slightly below average for all pitchers who have been enshrined (251-176 - .588).  What should keep him out is his mediocre career ERA of 3.90, which is nearly a run per nine-innings higher than the average ERA for Hall of Fame hurlers (2.96).  In fact, Morris never even had a single season (he played for 18 seasons) when he was able to post an ERA under 3.00.  Those don't sound like Hall of Fame numbers to me.

His supporters tout him as the Pitcher of the Eighties because he happened to win more games in that particular decade than anyone else.  However, that was attributable more to his durability (and stellar defense behind him) than his pitching ability.  Yes, he was a workhorse, but Morris never won a Cy Young Award (his best finish was third-place) and that high ERA is barely better than what an average run-of-the-mill pitcher posted during the time he played (1977-1994).  It's not surprising that his ERA+ of 105 is likewise, only slightly above average (100).  So far, he seems to be a good candidate for the Hall of Above Average to Pretty Good But Not Great.

Digging deeper into the sabermetric evidence, we find that his career WAR of 39.3 is lower than such above-average-to-pretty-good-but-not-great pitchers as Brad Radke, Kevin Brown and Kevin Appier - all solid performers with flashes of excellence who will never, ever  be enshrined in Cooperstown.

It seems that the Morris Hall of Fame candidacy really comes down to that one legendary postseason game - Game Seven of the 1991 World Series - when Morris, pitching for the Minnesota Twins, squared off against a young John Smoltz of the Atlanta Braves in a truly classic duel.  Morris would pitch ten shutout innings - good enough for the win - as the Twins finally broke through for the only run of the game in the bottom of the tenth-inning.  As valiant as that effort was, Morris also had more than just a little bit of luck going for him, when the Braves hit him hard in the eighth-inning, but came up empty-handed - thanks in large part to a base-running gaffe by Lonnie Smith.  Still, this effort by Morris on the grandest of all stages was certainly his most noteworthy episode - or flash - of excellence.

In the end, Morris became the iconic hero, as Minnesota won its second World Championship in five seasons; they've yet to win their third.  The perception that Morris was a great postseason pitcher is largely based from that one sensational flash-in-the-pan performance; otherwise, his postseason career amounted to a fairly run-of-the-mill 7-4 record with a 3.80 ERA.  Once again, not exactly Hall of Fame worthy.

If Morris does get the necessary support this year (2014 is his final year of eligibilty), he will supplant Red Ruffing (3.80 ERA) for the dubious distinction of having the highest ERA for any enshrined hurler.  The fact that he managed to win 254 games (I thought 300 was the magic number?) is more a testament to the strength of the teams he spent time with - namely, three World Series champions - Detroit, Minnesota and Toronto.

In Detroit, where he spent the early years of his career, he had the good fortune of having one of the greatest (if not "the" greatest) double-play combinations of all-time playing behind him:  Alan Trammell & Lou Whitaker - both of whom deserve more Hall of Fame consideration than Morris.

With all the controversy surrounding this new batch of Hall of Fame candidates emerging from the dreaded Steroids Era, the time may be right for Morris to sneak in the back door of Cooperstown; no doubt steroid-free and a pretty darn good pitcher with an engaging personality who was a fierce competitor, to boot. 

Another fierce competitor - Roger Clemens - is on the ballot for the first time this year, along with a few others that have been linked to performance enhancing drugs.  It's highly unlikely for Clemens to get voted in this time around; however, it's interesting to note that he managed to win exactly 100 more games than Jack Morris, and he also managed to lose two fewer games than Morris.  Clemens' ERA is almost a point lower (3.12), and his ERA+ is a very Hall-of-Fame-like 143.  I don't know how much of all that is inflated by any possible steroid use; but here's a guy who won seven Cy Young Awards and an MVP Award, and is perhaps the greatest pitcher who ever lived.

How strange it would be to see Morris getting voted into the Hall of Fame while Clemens is forced to wait; possibly for more than fifteen years.