Roberto Alomar is widely regarded as one of the best - if not the best - defensive second basemen in major league history. He certainly dazzled us with some unbelievable defensive wizardry over the course of his Hall of Fame career. As his reward, Alomar won ten AL Gold Glove Awards between 1991 and 2001.
There was just one problem: His defensive skills were actually, on average, below average.
Over the course of his career, his glove work as a second baseman actually cost his teams 30 runs. His career Range Factor (Putouts + Assists per 9 innings) of 4.97 compares to a league average of 5.06. Those aren't the types of numbers associated with the "best defensive second baseman of all-time" - but there they are. This leads me to believe that there's more to great defense than making the isolated spectacular play which will be shown time and time again on ESPN or MLB Network.
It also leads me to believe that Alomar is highly overrated by just about everybody on the planet. Baseball-reference.com ranks him at number 14 all-time for second basemen.
Here's a closer look at each Gold Glove Award-winning season for Alomar compared to who should have won the Gold Glove (if different):
Yr RF vs League Avg (Run Differential) And the Winner Should Have Been...
'91 4.94 vs 5.19 (-5) Lou Whitaker 5.21 (+11)
'92 4.69 vs 5.25 (+1) Scott Fletcher 5.53 (+8)
'93 4.78 vs 5.15 (-7) Scott Fletcher 5.39 (+21)
'94 4.65 vs 5.10 (-7) Scott Fletcher 5.69 (+8)
'95 5.10 vs 5.11 (-8) Fernando Vina 5.86 (0)
'96 5.35 vs 5.05 (-6) Mark McLemore 5.53 (+19)
'98 5.10 vs 4.85 (+11)
'99 5.07 vs 5.13 (+8)
'00 5.02 vs 5.03 (+7)
'01 4.70 vs 4.86 (-4) Frank Menechino 5.11 (+8)
Quite honestly, I never even heard of Frank Menechino before today. Incidentally, neither Fletcher nor McLemore ever won a single Gold Glove Award; Vina won a couple playing for the Cardinals later in his career ('01 and '02).
Strangely enough, Alomar's best defensive season (Range Factor) came early in his career ('88), as a member of the San Diego Padres, but Ryne Sandberg was right in the middle of his nine-season Gold Glove run ('83 - '91). There was no stopping him.
Sandberg was actually a good defensive second baseman - saving his team 57 runs over the course of his Hall of Fame career (Baseball-reference.com ranks him at number 9 all-time for second basemen). His career Range Factor (5.31) beats the league average (5.21), but his best glove work came early in his career.
Here's a closer look at Sandberg's Gold Glove Award-winning seasons:
Yr RF vs League Avg (Run Differential) And the Winner Should Have Been...
'83 6.02 vs 5.33 (+12)
'84 5.70 vs 5.41 (+12)
'85 5.76 vs 5.47 (-4) Glenn Hubbard 6.92 (+17)
'86 5.26 vs 5.21 (+3) Glenn Hubbard 5.88 (0)
'87 5.31 vs 5.19 (-13) Glenn Hubbard 5.78 (+5)
'88 5.39 vs 5.22 (+8) Roberto Alomar 5.63 (+7)
'89 5.10 vs 5.12 (-2) Robby Thompson 5.28 (+16)
'90 5.11 vs 5.01 (0) Jose Lind 5.50 (+6)
'91 5.12 vs 5.14 (+6) Robby Thompson 5.60 (+4)
Interestingly, in 1992, Jose Lind won the Gold Glove Award for the first and only time in his career, with a Range Factor of 5.59 (League Average was 5.18). Strangely enough, his glove actually cost his team (Pittsburgh Pirates) two runs that season. Meanwhile, Sandberg had a slightly lower Range Factor (5.36), yet he saved his team nine runs. Why he didn't win his tenth straight Gold Glove Award is beyond me. Incidentally, Hubbard never won a Gold Glove Award - Thompson bagged just one - in '93.
What does all this mean? Winning a Gold Glove Award does not always translate into being the league's best defensive player. On closer review, Roberto Alomar deserved three out of the ten Gold Gloves he actually won, plus another one he should have won.
Meanwhile, Sandberg legitimately earned two of the nine he actually won, plus the one late in his career he should have won.
For the casual fan, the significance of good defense is often lost when evaluating players for Hall of Fame consideration. Lost in the shuffle are Bobby Grich (ranked number 7 all-time for second basemen) and Lou Whitaker (ranked number 11). Both were terrific defensive second basemen - Grich saved 71 runs and Whitaker 77 runs for their teams over their careers. Both are ranked higher than Craig Biggio (number 14 all-time), who just had his ticket to Cooperstown punched.
Showing posts with label lou whitaker. Show all posts
Showing posts with label lou whitaker. Show all posts
Sunday, January 11, 2015
Friday, January 4, 2013
Numbers Don't Lie - Morris Not HOF Material
Jack Morris had a nice career, but was it really a Hall of Fame career? His won-loss record (254-186 - .577) is just slightly below average for all pitchers who have been enshrined (251-176 - .588). What should keep him out is his mediocre career ERA of 3.90, which is nearly a run per nine-innings higher than the average ERA for Hall of Fame hurlers (2.96). In fact, Morris never even had a single season (he played for 18 seasons) when he was able to post an ERA under 3.00. Those don't sound like Hall of Fame numbers to me.
His supporters tout him as the Pitcher of the Eighties because he happened to win more games in that particular decade than anyone else. However, that was attributable more to his durability (and stellar defense behind him) than his pitching ability. Yes, he was a workhorse, but Morris never won a Cy Young Award (his best finish was third-place) and that high ERA is barely better than what an average run-of-the-mill pitcher posted during the time he played (1977-1994). It's not surprising that his ERA+ of 105 is likewise, only slightly above average (100). So far, he seems to be a good candidate for the Hall of Above Average to Pretty Good But Not Great.
Digging deeper into the sabermetric evidence, we find that his career WAR of 39.3 is lower than such above-average-to-pretty-good-but-not-great pitchers as Brad Radke, Kevin Brown and Kevin Appier - all solid performers with flashes of excellence who will never, ever be enshrined in Cooperstown.
It seems that the Morris Hall of Fame candidacy really comes down to that one legendary postseason game - Game Seven of the 1991 World Series - when Morris, pitching for the Minnesota Twins, squared off against a young John Smoltz of the Atlanta Braves in a truly classic duel. Morris would pitch ten shutout innings - good enough for the win - as the Twins finally broke through for the only run of the game in the bottom of the tenth-inning. As valiant as that effort was, Morris also had more than just a little bit of luck going for him, when the Braves hit him hard in the eighth-inning, but came up empty-handed - thanks in large part to a base-running gaffe by Lonnie Smith. Still, this effort by Morris on the grandest of all stages was certainly his most noteworthy episode - or flash - of excellence.
In the end, Morris became the iconic hero, as Minnesota won its second World Championship in five seasons; they've yet to win their third. The perception that Morris was a great postseason pitcher is largely based from that one sensational flash-in-the-pan performance; otherwise, his postseason career amounted to a fairly run-of-the-mill 7-4 record with a 3.80 ERA. Once again, not exactly Hall of Fame worthy.
If Morris does get the necessary support this year (2014 is his final year of eligibilty), he will supplant Red Ruffing (3.80 ERA) for the dubious distinction of having the highest ERA for any enshrined hurler. The fact that he managed to win 254 games (I thought 300 was the magic number?) is more a testament to the strength of the teams he spent time with - namely, three World Series champions - Detroit, Minnesota and Toronto.
In Detroit, where he spent the early years of his career, he had the good fortune of having one of the greatest (if not "the" greatest) double-play combinations of all-time playing behind him: Alan Trammell & Lou Whitaker - both of whom deserve more Hall of Fame consideration than Morris.
With all the controversy surrounding this new batch of Hall of Fame candidates emerging from the dreaded Steroids Era, the time may be right for Morris to sneak in the back door of Cooperstown; no doubt steroid-free and a pretty darn good pitcher with an engaging personality who was a fierce competitor, to boot.
Another fierce competitor - Roger Clemens - is on the ballot for the first time this year, along with a few others that have been linked to performance enhancing drugs. It's highly unlikely for Clemens to get voted in this time around; however, it's interesting to note that he managed to win exactly 100 more games than Jack Morris, and he also managed to lose two fewer games than Morris. Clemens' ERA is almost a point lower (3.12), and his ERA+ is a very Hall-of-Fame-like 143. I don't know how much of all that is inflated by any possible steroid use; but here's a guy who won seven Cy Young Awards and an MVP Award, and is perhaps the greatest pitcher who ever lived.
How strange it would be to see Morris getting voted into the Hall of Fame while Clemens is forced to wait; possibly for more than fifteen years.
His supporters tout him as the Pitcher of the Eighties because he happened to win more games in that particular decade than anyone else. However, that was attributable more to his durability (and stellar defense behind him) than his pitching ability. Yes, he was a workhorse, but Morris never won a Cy Young Award (his best finish was third-place) and that high ERA is barely better than what an average run-of-the-mill pitcher posted during the time he played (1977-1994). It's not surprising that his ERA+ of 105 is likewise, only slightly above average (100). So far, he seems to be a good candidate for the Hall of Above Average to Pretty Good But Not Great.
Digging deeper into the sabermetric evidence, we find that his career WAR of 39.3 is lower than such above-average-to-pretty-good-but-not-great pitchers as Brad Radke, Kevin Brown and Kevin Appier - all solid performers with flashes of excellence who will never, ever be enshrined in Cooperstown.
It seems that the Morris Hall of Fame candidacy really comes down to that one legendary postseason game - Game Seven of the 1991 World Series - when Morris, pitching for the Minnesota Twins, squared off against a young John Smoltz of the Atlanta Braves in a truly classic duel. Morris would pitch ten shutout innings - good enough for the win - as the Twins finally broke through for the only run of the game in the bottom of the tenth-inning. As valiant as that effort was, Morris also had more than just a little bit of luck going for him, when the Braves hit him hard in the eighth-inning, but came up empty-handed - thanks in large part to a base-running gaffe by Lonnie Smith. Still, this effort by Morris on the grandest of all stages was certainly his most noteworthy episode - or flash - of excellence.
In the end, Morris became the iconic hero, as Minnesota won its second World Championship in five seasons; they've yet to win their third. The perception that Morris was a great postseason pitcher is largely based from that one sensational flash-in-the-pan performance; otherwise, his postseason career amounted to a fairly run-of-the-mill 7-4 record with a 3.80 ERA. Once again, not exactly Hall of Fame worthy.
If Morris does get the necessary support this year (2014 is his final year of eligibilty), he will supplant Red Ruffing (3.80 ERA) for the dubious distinction of having the highest ERA for any enshrined hurler. The fact that he managed to win 254 games (I thought 300 was the magic number?) is more a testament to the strength of the teams he spent time with - namely, three World Series champions - Detroit, Minnesota and Toronto.
In Detroit, where he spent the early years of his career, he had the good fortune of having one of the greatest (if not "the" greatest) double-play combinations of all-time playing behind him: Alan Trammell & Lou Whitaker - both of whom deserve more Hall of Fame consideration than Morris.
With all the controversy surrounding this new batch of Hall of Fame candidates emerging from the dreaded Steroids Era, the time may be right for Morris to sneak in the back door of Cooperstown; no doubt steroid-free and a pretty darn good pitcher with an engaging personality who was a fierce competitor, to boot.
Another fierce competitor - Roger Clemens - is on the ballot for the first time this year, along with a few others that have been linked to performance enhancing drugs. It's highly unlikely for Clemens to get voted in this time around; however, it's interesting to note that he managed to win exactly 100 more games than Jack Morris, and he also managed to lose two fewer games than Morris. Clemens' ERA is almost a point lower (3.12), and his ERA+ is a very Hall-of-Fame-like 143. I don't know how much of all that is inflated by any possible steroid use; but here's a guy who won seven Cy Young Awards and an MVP Award, and is perhaps the greatest pitcher who ever lived.
How strange it would be to see Morris getting voted into the Hall of Fame while Clemens is forced to wait; possibly for more than fifteen years.
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