Expect Justin Verlander to Throw a No-Hitter vs Cards

It's been ages since we've had a no-hitter/perfect game in MLB.  What's it been?  A week?  Actually, it's been almost a whole week since Matt Cain's perfect game against the Houston Astros - the 22nd in MLB history; although it seems like there have been 22 just in the past couple of years.  Let's not forget that number should really be 23, but a blown call at first base cost then-Tigers' pitcher Armando Gallaraga from joining the elite club in 2010.  Apparently, the disappointment of not getting credit for recording that last out has weighed heavily on Gallaraga; he hasn't pitched effectively since that close call; in fact, he's not even with the Tigers, nor is he even in the major leagues anymore.  Easy come, easy go, Armando.

I usually don't make these type of predictions, but it seems to me Justin Verlander is due for another no-hitter.  He hasn't had one in over a year, for crying out loud!  Of course, the Cardinals were just vicimized on June 1 by Johan Santana - the first time they've suffered that fate since Fernando Valenzuela no-hit them on June 29, 1990, at Dodger Stadium.  But let's face it; the Redbirds are really in a funk these days, so it would be no surprise if they were held completely in check by Verlander tonight.  Maybe even a perfect game, although that's a bit of a stretch.  The Cards are a disciplined team at the dish; even though they strike out a lot, they also draw more than their fair share of bases on balls.

With all due respect to Santana, Verlander's stuff is far more imposing.  How many pitchers can throw 100 mph fastballs, 90 mph change of paces, and mix in more than a few sharp breaking curve balls reminiscent of Bert Blyleven in his prime?  The answer:  Nobody.

The Redbirds have their ace going tonight - Lance Lynn, looking for win number 11.  If he weren't facing Verlander, he might have a good shot at it.  Not tonight, Lance.  Maybe you'll get a no-decision; but shutting the Tigers out for a full nine innings is nearly impossible; at least it hasn't happened in 134 straight games, but who's counting?

To be honest with you; I'm trying to jinx Verlander by making this outlandish prediction; anything to shake things up for the struggling Redbirds.  Unfortunately, I don't think my strategy is going to work.

Verlander is due for a no-hitter; MLB is due for a no-hitter; and the Cardinals don't seem to be hitting very well these days.  This could be Detroit's perfect storm, tonight.  Maybe even a perfect game?  I'm sure Verlander would love to get into that club which Kate Upton oversees.  Who could blame him?  Tonight could be the night, Justin.  For sure, you'll get no-hitter number three.  No doubt about it.

***UPDATE:  Verlander's no-hitter was broken up in the first inning by Cards' DH Matt Holliday, who prior to Tuesday night, was hitting under .150 as a DH in his career.  Go figure.  Verlander got an easy win, however, allowing just five hits and one earned run in 8 innings of work, as the Cards went down to defeat, by a score of 6-3 (2 of the runs the Redbirds scored were unearned).  Lance Lynn had a tough outing, allowing a career high five runs, as his record fell to 10-3.  Big deal.  St Louis trails the Cincinnati Reds by 4.5 games, and second-place Pittsburgh by two games.  For the record, St Louis trailed the Atlanta Braves by that same 4.5 game margin on September 11, 2011, in pursuit of the wild card berth; which they eventually nailed down, en route to the 11th World Series title in franchise history.  It's hard to get worked up about such trivial deficits this early in the season.  I'm just glad the Cardinals avoided that no-hitter on Tuesday night.

Odds Not in Favor of No-Hit Cardinals

When the St Louis Cardinals were no-hit by Johan Santana of the New York Mets last Friday night (June 1), they became the first defending World Series champion to suffer that fate since Nolan Ryan (Texas Rangers) turned the trick against Tony LaRussa's Oakland A's, on June 11, 1990.  The Redbirds also became the twentieth MLB team to be no-hit in the current millennium, and the third already in 2012.

Out of the previous seventeen no-hit victims, six went on to play in the postseason (five division champions and one wild card).  Generally speaking, these playoff-bound teams were playing consistently well shortly before - and after - they were no-hit; unlike the Cardinals, who have been struggling for quite some time now.

Below is a summary of each team's remarkably consistent won-loss record - five games before the no-hitter - and five games after, along with their final won-loss record:

                                   W-L RECORD         W-L RECORD        OVERALL    
 Date        Team       5 GAMES PRIOR    5 GAMES AFTER    W-L RECORD  Final Standings

04/27/03      SF                      3-2                           3-2                     100-61             1st-NL West
06/11/03      NYY                   3-2                            4-1                     101-61             1st-AL East
05/18/04      ATL                    3-2                            3-2                      96-66             1st-NL East
04/17/10      ATL                    3-2                            2-3                      91-71            2nd - NL East*
05/09/10      TB                     2-3                            3-2                        96-66            1st-AL East
06/25/10      TB                     4-1                            3-2                       
10/06/10      CIN (NLDS)        3-2                            3-2**                     91-71          1st-NL Cent


Combined Totals:                21-14 (.600)             21-14 (.600)         575-396 (.592)
                                                                               
*NL Wild Card team (2010)
**2 losses occurred in postseason

Despite their overall success, none of these teams would go on to win the World Series, although the Yankees at least made it to the Fall Classic in 2003 - losing to the Florida Marlins in six games.  The remaining eleven teams that have been no-hit since 2000 (prior to 2012) had a composite won-loss record of 1221-1368 (.472); in other words, there was a good reason they were no-hit at least once* - they weren't very good!  Adding to that tradition of losing will more than likely include two teams that were no-hit earlier this year - the Seattle Mariners** (25-32) and the Minnesota Twins (21-33).

*Tampa Bay leads MLB's no-hit wonder list since 2000 (4 times), followed by San Diego (3 times).  Two-time losers include Baltimore, Atlanta, and the Chicago White Sox (Somehow, the Cubs have dodged the 21st century no-hit jinx).

**Actually, Seattle fell victim to Chicago White Sox hurler, Phil Humber's perfect game.

Whether it's merely coincidental that the playoff-bound no-hit victims were playing .600 ball, five games before and after the big event; which is consistent with their overall composite winning percentage (.592); but the Cardinals have been playing quite poorly as of late.  Injuries have played a large role in their recent slide; however, if they expect to qualify for postseason play, they've got to figure out a way to keep their key players in the lineup on a regular basis, going forward.

Otherwise, they're going to join the rest of the 21st century no-hit bunch - out of the postseason; hoping for better luck next year.