It's not beyond the realm of possibility that the Washington Nationals won't win the NL East again in 2015. They've already had several key players go down with injuries, and four of them are questionable for service by the time they open their season on April 6 against the New York Mets (Jason Werth, Nate McLouth, Casey Janssen & Anthony Rendon). Another, Denard Span, is out indefinitely after undergoing abdominal surgery a couple of weeks ago.
Although they can survive without a few key players in the lineup from time to time, they can ill-afford to lose guys like Bryce Harper or Ryan Zimmerman (both with a history of injuries) for prolonged stretches again this season and hope to take the much more competitive NL East by storm.
Washington's starting pitching is probably good enough to carry them to the title again this season, even with a makeshift lineup behind them. That's barring any major injuries to their starters, of course.
Both the Miami Marlins and New York Mets will be much better than last season, but the only way either team could win that division would be an unlikely combination of further Nats' injuries while keeping their rosters almost completely out of harm's way for an entire season.
As far as the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies are concerned, 2015 will be another forgettable season, as both former powerhouses are in a definite rebuilding mode. Just three years ago, the Phillies were coming off a 102-win season. But an aging core of players has made them perhaps the worst team in baseball - highly capable of losing 102 games in 2015. It won't be pretty.
Here's what's in store for the NL East for 2015:
Washington 95-67
Miami 85-77
New York 84-78
Atlanta 70-92
Philadelphia 64-98
With all their talent in recent years, the Nats have failed to advance past the NLDS in two tries - losing to St Louis in 2012 and losing to San Francisco last season. Still, they're the odds on favorite to win the World Series. So in all likelihood, they'd have to beat the Cardinals to reach the Fall Classic. Don't bet on it.
Showing posts with label Miami Marlins. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Miami Marlins. Show all posts
Tuesday, March 31, 2015
Monday, July 7, 2014
July 7, 2013 - Cards 3 - Marlins 2 - For 2nd Straight Year
Sunday, July 7, 2013 - At Busch Stadium III (Lance Lynn - Starting Pitcher) - Opponent: Miami Marlins (Jose Fernandez - Starting Pitcher) - Attendance: 43,741
Exactly one year after beating the Miami Marlins at Busch Stadium by a score of 3-2, the Cardinals beat the Marlins at Busch Stadium by a score of 3-2. What a coincidence. Last year, all the scoring in the game had concluded after the fourth-inning - which is exactly what happened in this game.
The manner in which the runs scored had changed, along with a change in the sequential order. For example, last year Matt Holliday did not hit a two-out first-inning home run to give the Cardinals a 1-0 lead; but he did this time around.
Last year, the Marlins didn't score a run in the second-inning to tie the game at one run apiece, since they actually scored two runs in the second to take a 2-0 lead.
And last year, the Cardinals did not score two runs in the third-inning to take a 3-1 lead; they scored three runs in the fourth-inning to take a 3-2 lead - and that's how it ended.
Returning to the reality of 2013, Holliday did indeed hit a two-out solo home run in the first-inning to give the Cardinals a 1-0 lead.
And the Marlins did indeed tie the game in the second-inning, on a Derek Dietrich double and an Adeiny Hechavarria run-scoring single.
The Cardinals added two more runs in the third-inning. Leading off, Matt Carpenter was hit by a Fernandez fastball - then Carlos Beltran laid down a perfect bunt, enabling him to reach base safely on the infield hit, as Carpenter advanced to second. Fernandez then walked Holliday to load the bases for Allen Craig - who scored Carpenter with a long sacrifice fly to center field, as Beltran also moved up to third.
The next batter - David Freese struck out on a 3-2 fastball while Beltran was busy stealing home - and Holliday was sliding into second. The double steal - with the lead runner hampered by a bum knee - caught everyone off guard; but it gave the Redbirds their third, and final run of the game.
Miami scored a run in the fourth-inning, and threatened to score in the eighth-inning - but Trevor Rosenthal was able to get the final out on a ground ball to second, with the bases loaded with Marlins.
Edward Mujica pitched a perfect ninth-inning to record his 23rd save of the season, as Lance Lynn improved to 11-3 - and rookie sensation Jose Fernandez dropped to 5-5.
Imagine that. Beltran - bad knees and all - stole home. Lou Brock - 938 career stolen bases - yet not a single solitary theft of home. Go figure.
Exactly one year after beating the Miami Marlins at Busch Stadium by a score of 3-2, the Cardinals beat the Marlins at Busch Stadium by a score of 3-2. What a coincidence. Last year, all the scoring in the game had concluded after the fourth-inning - which is exactly what happened in this game.
The manner in which the runs scored had changed, along with a change in the sequential order. For example, last year Matt Holliday did not hit a two-out first-inning home run to give the Cardinals a 1-0 lead; but he did this time around.
Last year, the Marlins didn't score a run in the second-inning to tie the game at one run apiece, since they actually scored two runs in the second to take a 2-0 lead.
And last year, the Cardinals did not score two runs in the third-inning to take a 3-1 lead; they scored three runs in the fourth-inning to take a 3-2 lead - and that's how it ended.
Returning to the reality of 2013, Holliday did indeed hit a two-out solo home run in the first-inning to give the Cardinals a 1-0 lead.
And the Marlins did indeed tie the game in the second-inning, on a Derek Dietrich double and an Adeiny Hechavarria run-scoring single.
The Cardinals added two more runs in the third-inning. Leading off, Matt Carpenter was hit by a Fernandez fastball - then Carlos Beltran laid down a perfect bunt, enabling him to reach base safely on the infield hit, as Carpenter advanced to second. Fernandez then walked Holliday to load the bases for Allen Craig - who scored Carpenter with a long sacrifice fly to center field, as Beltran also moved up to third.
The next batter - David Freese struck out on a 3-2 fastball while Beltran was busy stealing home - and Holliday was sliding into second. The double steal - with the lead runner hampered by a bum knee - caught everyone off guard; but it gave the Redbirds their third, and final run of the game.
Miami scored a run in the fourth-inning, and threatened to score in the eighth-inning - but Trevor Rosenthal was able to get the final out on a ground ball to second, with the bases loaded with Marlins.
Edward Mujica pitched a perfect ninth-inning to record his 23rd save of the season, as Lance Lynn improved to 11-3 - and rookie sensation Jose Fernandez dropped to 5-5.
Imagine that. Beltran - bad knees and all - stole home. Lou Brock - 938 career stolen bases - yet not a single solitary theft of home. Go figure.
Tuesday, April 17, 2012
Bobby V & Ozzie G: Masters of Media Disasters
When the Cardinals hired Mike Matheny to take over the managerial helm in the wake of the Tony LaRussa retirement, many baseball analysts criticized the move, citing Matheny's "lack of experience". Many of those same analysts felt the Cardinals missed the boat by not pursuing the charismatic and overly outspoken former MLB manager (Rangers and Mets), Bobby Valentine. After all, he had "experience".
When the volatile and egocentric Bobby V landed in Boston in the wake of the September Red Sox Collapse of '11, many baseball analysts thought it would be a good fit, for some reason. I suppose it seemingly made sense to have a manager who is so comfortable being in the spotlight as Valentine; surely he would handle the media with relative ease and charm, while gaining the respect and admiration of his ballplayers; so they thought.
Of course, Bobby V's dumb move of openly criticizing the struggling Kevin Youkilis on a local Boston television station ("I'm glad he walked twice in yesterday's game, so his on base percentage will be higher than his batting average.") is the hot national story for Monday, April 17; however, it pales in comparison to the uproar created by the antics of the Miami Marlins' volatile and egocentric Hispanic manager, Ozzie Guillen.
In an interview with Time Magazine, the outspoken Guillen came across like the President of the Fidel Castro Fan Club (He "loves" him); a move so blatantly insensitive and dumb, an embarrassed Marlins front office hastily suspended Ozzie for five games. Hooray; I wonder if this is what they had in mind when they hired this babbling jackass to take over the helm for the new-look Marlins - with all their overpriced and mostly over-the-hill free agents?
It seemed like a good fit, eh? Surely, Senior Guillen would charm all those Little Havana residents into supporting this weird-looking, fundamentally ridiculous ball club, playing in that weird-looking, cavernous new ballpark; so they thought.
When Guillen returns from his little five-day vacation on Tuesday, it'll be interesting to see what the reaction of the fans will be to Little Fidel's appearance in the home team's dugout. Will they even care? My guess is, there will be little fan reaction, because there will be little fan attendance. When the season ends, and the Marlins are once again the last place team in the NL East, while hardly anybody bothered to come out to the old ballpark to witness those debacles in person; what will be the fate of Ozzie Guillen?
My guess is both Ozzie and Bobby V will be seeking new employment opportunities for 2013; while their former employers will be going back to the drawing board, trying to find another experienced manager to guide their teams deep into the postseason. Good luck with that.
Meanwhile, back in St Louis, the quietly confident Mike Matheny seems to be adjusting nicely to the challenge of managing in the big leagues. It helps when the manager knows how to communicate with his players by building mutual trust and respect. It helps when the manager avoids making dumb and controversial comments to the media, too. Over the course of Matheny's first year as manager of the World Champion St Louis Cardinals, there are bound to be some tactical mistakes made; moves that will be second-guessed. That comes with the job description; he'll deal with it well; and he'll continue to improve his managerial skills.
When the 2012 season draws to a conclusion, Mike Matheny's "lack of experience" will have proven to be a non-issue. He'll be in St Louis for a long time; his "experienced" counterparts in Boston and Miami won't fare so well, I suspect.
If nothing else, I'm sure both Bobby V and Ozzie G will provide us with a lot of laughs, along the way.
When the volatile and egocentric Bobby V landed in Boston in the wake of the September Red Sox Collapse of '11, many baseball analysts thought it would be a good fit, for some reason. I suppose it seemingly made sense to have a manager who is so comfortable being in the spotlight as Valentine; surely he would handle the media with relative ease and charm, while gaining the respect and admiration of his ballplayers; so they thought.
Of course, Bobby V's dumb move of openly criticizing the struggling Kevin Youkilis on a local Boston television station ("I'm glad he walked twice in yesterday's game, so his on base percentage will be higher than his batting average.") is the hot national story for Monday, April 17; however, it pales in comparison to the uproar created by the antics of the Miami Marlins' volatile and egocentric Hispanic manager, Ozzie Guillen.
In an interview with Time Magazine, the outspoken Guillen came across like the President of the Fidel Castro Fan Club (He "loves" him); a move so blatantly insensitive and dumb, an embarrassed Marlins front office hastily suspended Ozzie for five games. Hooray; I wonder if this is what they had in mind when they hired this babbling jackass to take over the helm for the new-look Marlins - with all their overpriced and mostly over-the-hill free agents?
It seemed like a good fit, eh? Surely, Senior Guillen would charm all those Little Havana residents into supporting this weird-looking, fundamentally ridiculous ball club, playing in that weird-looking, cavernous new ballpark; so they thought.
When Guillen returns from his little five-day vacation on Tuesday, it'll be interesting to see what the reaction of the fans will be to Little Fidel's appearance in the home team's dugout. Will they even care? My guess is, there will be little fan reaction, because there will be little fan attendance. When the season ends, and the Marlins are once again the last place team in the NL East, while hardly anybody bothered to come out to the old ballpark to witness those debacles in person; what will be the fate of Ozzie Guillen?
My guess is both Ozzie and Bobby V will be seeking new employment opportunities for 2013; while their former employers will be going back to the drawing board, trying to find another experienced manager to guide their teams deep into the postseason. Good luck with that.
Meanwhile, back in St Louis, the quietly confident Mike Matheny seems to be adjusting nicely to the challenge of managing in the big leagues. It helps when the manager knows how to communicate with his players by building mutual trust and respect. It helps when the manager avoids making dumb and controversial comments to the media, too. Over the course of Matheny's first year as manager of the World Champion St Louis Cardinals, there are bound to be some tactical mistakes made; moves that will be second-guessed. That comes with the job description; he'll deal with it well; and he'll continue to improve his managerial skills.
When the 2012 season draws to a conclusion, Mike Matheny's "lack of experience" will have proven to be a non-issue. He'll be in St Louis for a long time; his "experienced" counterparts in Boston and Miami won't fare so well, I suspect.
If nothing else, I'm sure both Bobby V and Ozzie G will provide us with a lot of laughs, along the way.
Saturday, April 7, 2012
The Road to 12 in '12
The Cardinals opened the 2012 season on Wednesday by helping the new-look Miami Marlins inaugurate their weird-new-exotic ballpark by handing the Miami-nine something they were quite used to in 2011 - another loss, by a score of 4-1.
After the bizarre pre-game ceremonies which looked more like a Latin-version of Cirque Du Soleil, the home team looked anything but comfortable being introduced to the curious throng like cheesy beauty contestants escorted out to the field by a weird assortment of scantily-clad feathered-babes who were clearly enjoying the festivities way more than the embarrassed players.
Perhaps still in shock from the outrageous extravaganza they had been subjected to, Ozzie Guillen's highly touted squad promptly fell behind after the first half inning when World Series hero David Freese knocked in two runs off Marlins ace Josh Johnson; and with Cardinals pitcher Kyle Lohse yielding nary a hit through six innings, that was all that was needed to beat the Marlins, although the Redbirds tacked on another couple of runs, anyway.
After spoiling the Marlins' bizarre home opener with the win which also gave new Cards' manager Mike Matheny his first as a big league manager, the Redbirds headed north, where they would play the division-rival Milwaukee Brewers in their Friday home opener. After spotting the Brewers an early 2-0 lead, the Cardinals played long ball to take command of the contest; in the second inning, an extremely fit-looking Yadier Molina hammered the first pitch he saw from Yovani Gallardo (now 1-8 in his career against St Louis) over the right field fence. It was the first of four home runs the Cardinals would belt in the game; in the third inning, Carlos Beltran and Matt Holliday hit back-to-back home runs to first, tie the game, then give the Redbirds a lead they would never relinquish. Then, with a man on, David Freese hit the third bomb of the inning deep to left field, extending the lead to 5-2, en route to an eventual 11-5 victory. Freese added another RBI later in the game, padding his two-game season total to five. In case anyone was wondering, that puts the red-hot and healthy Freese on pace to drive in 405 runs. Let's hope he stays healthy this year!
Cardinals starting pitcher, Jaime Garcia settled down nicely after yielding the two early runs; allowing no further scoring in his six innings of work.
The Cardinals, with a 2-0 record in the very early going of the 2012 season, have a two-game lead over the 2011 Cardinals, who dropped their first two games of the regular season, at home, to the San Diego Padres. As a footnote to that slow start, when the Redbirds went on to win the World Series last year, it marked the first time since 1946 the Cardinals lost their season-opener only to go on to win the Fall Classic.
Later today, the long-awaited return of Adam Wainwright to the Cardinal starting rotation becomes a reality, as Waino squares off against the goofy Zack Greinke, who went on record prior to last year's NLCS that "nobody on the Brewers likes Chris Carpenter because he yells a lot and stuff".
I hope Greinke adds Adam Wainwright to that "least-liked list" as the 2010 20-game winner tries to garner win number one against the Brewers at Miller Park.
After the bizarre pre-game ceremonies which looked more like a Latin-version of Cirque Du Soleil, the home team looked anything but comfortable being introduced to the curious throng like cheesy beauty contestants escorted out to the field by a weird assortment of scantily-clad feathered-babes who were clearly enjoying the festivities way more than the embarrassed players.
Perhaps still in shock from the outrageous extravaganza they had been subjected to, Ozzie Guillen's highly touted squad promptly fell behind after the first half inning when World Series hero David Freese knocked in two runs off Marlins ace Josh Johnson; and with Cardinals pitcher Kyle Lohse yielding nary a hit through six innings, that was all that was needed to beat the Marlins, although the Redbirds tacked on another couple of runs, anyway.
After spoiling the Marlins' bizarre home opener with the win which also gave new Cards' manager Mike Matheny his first as a big league manager, the Redbirds headed north, where they would play the division-rival Milwaukee Brewers in their Friday home opener. After spotting the Brewers an early 2-0 lead, the Cardinals played long ball to take command of the contest; in the second inning, an extremely fit-looking Yadier Molina hammered the first pitch he saw from Yovani Gallardo (now 1-8 in his career against St Louis) over the right field fence. It was the first of four home runs the Cardinals would belt in the game; in the third inning, Carlos Beltran and Matt Holliday hit back-to-back home runs to first, tie the game, then give the Redbirds a lead they would never relinquish. Then, with a man on, David Freese hit the third bomb of the inning deep to left field, extending the lead to 5-2, en route to an eventual 11-5 victory. Freese added another RBI later in the game, padding his two-game season total to five. In case anyone was wondering, that puts the red-hot and healthy Freese on pace to drive in 405 runs. Let's hope he stays healthy this year!
Cardinals starting pitcher, Jaime Garcia settled down nicely after yielding the two early runs; allowing no further scoring in his six innings of work.
The Cardinals, with a 2-0 record in the very early going of the 2012 season, have a two-game lead over the 2011 Cardinals, who dropped their first two games of the regular season, at home, to the San Diego Padres. As a footnote to that slow start, when the Redbirds went on to win the World Series last year, it marked the first time since 1946 the Cardinals lost their season-opener only to go on to win the Fall Classic.
Later today, the long-awaited return of Adam Wainwright to the Cardinal starting rotation becomes a reality, as Waino squares off against the goofy Zack Greinke, who went on record prior to last year's NLCS that "nobody on the Brewers likes Chris Carpenter because he yells a lot and stuff".
I hope Greinke adds Adam Wainwright to that "least-liked list" as the 2010 20-game winner tries to garner win number one against the Brewers at Miller Park.
Sunday, April 1, 2012
Ten Teams Most Likely to Improve in 2012
The 2011 MLB season will be forever remembered for that outrageously dramatic conclusion - Game 162 - which settled two of the wildest Wild Card races, ever. That final game capped off epic September collapses for both the Boston Red Sox, in the American League, and the Atlanta Braves, in the National League.
The beneficiaries of these epic collapses - the St Louis Cardinals and Tampa Rays both finished strong, and took care of business in Game 162; the Cards were easy winners with their ace, Chris Carpenter completely shutting down the Astros; while the Rays overcame an eighth inning seven run deficit to beat the Yankees, capped off by Evan Longoria's low-flying walk-off laser down the left-field line which barely had the height requirement to clear the lowest fence in baseball (excluding Little League fences).
Lost in the daily September Wild Card drama that was unfolding in both leagues, building up to that exciting night of baseball known as Wild Card Wednesday - Game 162 - was the contrasting lack of drama in all of the division races. In case you've forgotten, just take a look at the margin of victory each division champ enjoyed by season's end:
Yankees (97-65) - 6 games
Brewers (96-66) - 6 games
D-Backs (94-68) - 8 games
Rangers (96-66) - 10 games
Phillies (102-60) - 13 games
Tigers (93-69) - 15 games
Not only did these teams play extremely well last season, getting career years from many of their key players; their divisional rivals, for the most part, had unusually bad years, which helped foster a great deal more disparity than normal between the top teams and those on the bottom of the heap.
Many of the teams that struggled last year appear well-positioned to rebound in 2012; some even appear to have playoff-caliber talent after investing in some key free agents and/or making shrewd trades; some teams were decimated by injuries last season but appear to be relatively healthy now; while others have up and coming talent waiting in the wings to emerge as star players right now. The net effect in 2012 should be a great deal more parity from top to bottom, which should make the division races themselves, much more competitive, and - unlike last year - much more captivating for the fans.
Here are ten teams that should win a lot more games this time around. For some, those extra wins have playoff implications; for others, it's just a small step towards respectability:
*Chicago Cubs (71-91) - They probably won't make the postseason, but old school new manager Dale Sveum has already had a positive influence in changing the lackadaisical Cub culture; making the players accountable, getting them to hustle and play sound, fundamental baseball; that alone should bring them back to respectability; dishing their number one head-case, Carlos Zambrano off on Miami doesn't hurt. 2012 PROJECTION: 79-83
*Minnesota Twins (63-99) - Had the worst luck with injuries than any other team in baseball last year, losing both Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau for extended periods of time; everything seemed to go wrong with this team last year; however, if they can stay relatively healthy this year, they should come very close to .500 this year - giving them the distinction of easily being baseball's most improved team. 2012 PROJECTION: 80-82
*Pittsburgh Pirates (72-90) - This team played well enough in the first half of last season to spend a day or two in first place in the NL Central; lots of young talent here, featuring center fielder Andrew McCutchen, who keeps getting better every year. The rotation could be decent, if Erik Bedard stays healthy and AJ Burnett gets healthy and stays healthy while returning to his pre-Yankees pitching form. Finally, if former-Brewer slugging third baseman Casey McGehee rebounds from a disappointing 2011 to knock in close to 100 runs again (like he did in '10), this could be the year the Buccos play .500 ball for the first time in 20 years; Barry Bonds' last year in Pittsburgh. 2012 PROJECTION: 81-81
*Kansas City Royals (71-91) - Sure, they were dealt a blow when they lost closer, Joakim Soria to season-ending Tommy John surgery, but they'll have Eric Hosmer for a full season with a strong supporting cast, including the slugging doubles machine, Billy Butler, defensive whiz Jeff Francoeur patrolling right field, and the talented Alex Gordon; they'll score a bunch of runs and could reach .500 level with any luck at all. 2012 PROJECTION: 79-83
*Colorado Rockies (73-89) - Many picked the Rox to win the NL West last season; that's how badly things unraveled for them; made many wholesale changes, including signing free agent Michael Cuddyer in the off season; returning to a hitter-friendly environment will help him return to old form, when the Metrodome was his home; throw in the hitting prowess of Troy Tulowitzki along with a healthy Carlos Gonzalez, and this team could lead the league in runs scored. Pitching may be an issue, but they picked up a reliable starter, Jeremy Guthrie from Baltimore, who should give them 200+ quality innings this year. Their number two starter is 49-year old Jaime Moyer, who would be the oldest human to ever win a major league game, if he does it; he'll probably do it at least twelve times if his body can hold out all season. 2012 PROJECTION: 83-79
*Cleveland Indians (80-82) - The Tribe got off to a sensational start last season, but gradually faded as the Tigers went on a late season tear; they have a solid pitching staff, but need Ubaldo Jimenez to pitch like he did in Colorado to make a serious run for the division title; Silver Slugger shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera should be even better this year; finally, if the oft-injured pair of Travis Hafner and Grady Sizemore can play over 100 games apiece, that may help the magic return to Progressive Field all season long this time around. 2012 PROJECTION: 87-75
*LA Dodgers (82-80) - After getting off to a horrendous start last season, LA recovered nicely over the second half, fueled by Matt Kemp's monster near-Triple Crown-MVP-caliber season and the brilliant pitching of Cy Young Award winner, Clayton Kershaw. The offense should be much better, overall, assuming Andre Ethier and James Loney return to form; adding the potent bat of former-Angel Juan Rivera to this lineup should help them score enough runs to win the very competitive NL West. 2012 PROJECTION: 92-70
*Miami Marlins (72-90) - After spending tons of free agent money in acquiring shortstop Jose Reyes, pitcher Mark Buerhle, and aging closer Heath Bell, while importing volatile manager Ozzie Guillen to run the ship, and adding the volatile pitcher Carlos Zambrano to the rotation, this team is expected to be much better; along with changing the team name, they'll occupy a brand-new stadium, but will it be enough to reach the postseason in the competitive NL East? That's unlikely, but at least they'll escape the cellar. 2012 PROJECTION: 83-79
*Atlanta Braves (89-73) - They were one of the best teams in baseball for most of last season, boasting a young and very talented bullpen which simply ran out of gas in September. The starting pitching should be good enough, assuming a healthy Tim Hudson returns to the rotation sometime in May, while Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrgens stay healthy and pitch effectively. Second baseman Dan Uggla, who had a terrible start last year but came on strong at the end, should be able to put it all together for a full season; possibly good enough to earn him his first NL MVP Award; also, expect a healthy and trimmed-down Jason Heyward to swing the bat much better this year; finally, if Chipper Jones can keep his knee troubles to a minimum in his final season to play at least 120 games, it could be one to remember; yes, they should be able to get past the banged-up Phillies this time around. 2012 PROJECTION: 95-67
*LA Angels (86-76) - When the Halos landed Albert Pujols, they became the best team in the American League, just like that. Unless he sustains some sort of freak injury, Pujols will have a monster season for his new team, putting up typical AP numbers (last season was an aberration), and become a strong candidate for the AL MVP Award; especially if his new team wins the AL West this time. Not only will Albert do much damage of his own at the dish, he'll make the rest of the lineup better, with his mere presence, batting third in the order. Almost lost in all the Pujols hype is the addition of flaky lefty CJ Wilson to an already formidable starting rotation. 2012 PROJECTION: 96-66
These ten teams are projected to win 96 extra games, over last year. Most of the extra wins will be coming from the 2011 division champions; the end result for 2012 will be much greater parity throughout major league baseball; and that means each division race is likely to come down to the wire this time around, creating even more fun and excitement than last year's Wild Card Wednesday.
The beneficiaries of these epic collapses - the St Louis Cardinals and Tampa Rays both finished strong, and took care of business in Game 162; the Cards were easy winners with their ace, Chris Carpenter completely shutting down the Astros; while the Rays overcame an eighth inning seven run deficit to beat the Yankees, capped off by Evan Longoria's low-flying walk-off laser down the left-field line which barely had the height requirement to clear the lowest fence in baseball (excluding Little League fences).
Lost in the daily September Wild Card drama that was unfolding in both leagues, building up to that exciting night of baseball known as Wild Card Wednesday - Game 162 - was the contrasting lack of drama in all of the division races. In case you've forgotten, just take a look at the margin of victory each division champ enjoyed by season's end:
Yankees (97-65) - 6 games
Brewers (96-66) - 6 games
D-Backs (94-68) - 8 games
Rangers (96-66) - 10 games
Phillies (102-60) - 13 games
Tigers (93-69) - 15 games
Not only did these teams play extremely well last season, getting career years from many of their key players; their divisional rivals, for the most part, had unusually bad years, which helped foster a great deal more disparity than normal between the top teams and those on the bottom of the heap.
Many of the teams that struggled last year appear well-positioned to rebound in 2012; some even appear to have playoff-caliber talent after investing in some key free agents and/or making shrewd trades; some teams were decimated by injuries last season but appear to be relatively healthy now; while others have up and coming talent waiting in the wings to emerge as star players right now. The net effect in 2012 should be a great deal more parity from top to bottom, which should make the division races themselves, much more competitive, and - unlike last year - much more captivating for the fans.
Here are ten teams that should win a lot more games this time around. For some, those extra wins have playoff implications; for others, it's just a small step towards respectability:
*Chicago Cubs (71-91) - They probably won't make the postseason, but old school new manager Dale Sveum has already had a positive influence in changing the lackadaisical Cub culture; making the players accountable, getting them to hustle and play sound, fundamental baseball; that alone should bring them back to respectability; dishing their number one head-case, Carlos Zambrano off on Miami doesn't hurt. 2012 PROJECTION: 79-83
*Minnesota Twins (63-99) - Had the worst luck with injuries than any other team in baseball last year, losing both Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau for extended periods of time; everything seemed to go wrong with this team last year; however, if they can stay relatively healthy this year, they should come very close to .500 this year - giving them the distinction of easily being baseball's most improved team. 2012 PROJECTION: 80-82
*Pittsburgh Pirates (72-90) - This team played well enough in the first half of last season to spend a day or two in first place in the NL Central; lots of young talent here, featuring center fielder Andrew McCutchen, who keeps getting better every year. The rotation could be decent, if Erik Bedard stays healthy and AJ Burnett gets healthy and stays healthy while returning to his pre-Yankees pitching form. Finally, if former-Brewer slugging third baseman Casey McGehee rebounds from a disappointing 2011 to knock in close to 100 runs again (like he did in '10), this could be the year the Buccos play .500 ball for the first time in 20 years; Barry Bonds' last year in Pittsburgh. 2012 PROJECTION: 81-81
*Kansas City Royals (71-91) - Sure, they were dealt a blow when they lost closer, Joakim Soria to season-ending Tommy John surgery, but they'll have Eric Hosmer for a full season with a strong supporting cast, including the slugging doubles machine, Billy Butler, defensive whiz Jeff Francoeur patrolling right field, and the talented Alex Gordon; they'll score a bunch of runs and could reach .500 level with any luck at all. 2012 PROJECTION: 79-83
*Colorado Rockies (73-89) - Many picked the Rox to win the NL West last season; that's how badly things unraveled for them; made many wholesale changes, including signing free agent Michael Cuddyer in the off season; returning to a hitter-friendly environment will help him return to old form, when the Metrodome was his home; throw in the hitting prowess of Troy Tulowitzki along with a healthy Carlos Gonzalez, and this team could lead the league in runs scored. Pitching may be an issue, but they picked up a reliable starter, Jeremy Guthrie from Baltimore, who should give them 200+ quality innings this year. Their number two starter is 49-year old Jaime Moyer, who would be the oldest human to ever win a major league game, if he does it; he'll probably do it at least twelve times if his body can hold out all season. 2012 PROJECTION: 83-79
*Cleveland Indians (80-82) - The Tribe got off to a sensational start last season, but gradually faded as the Tigers went on a late season tear; they have a solid pitching staff, but need Ubaldo Jimenez to pitch like he did in Colorado to make a serious run for the division title; Silver Slugger shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera should be even better this year; finally, if the oft-injured pair of Travis Hafner and Grady Sizemore can play over 100 games apiece, that may help the magic return to Progressive Field all season long this time around. 2012 PROJECTION: 87-75
*LA Dodgers (82-80) - After getting off to a horrendous start last season, LA recovered nicely over the second half, fueled by Matt Kemp's monster near-Triple Crown-MVP-caliber season and the brilliant pitching of Cy Young Award winner, Clayton Kershaw. The offense should be much better, overall, assuming Andre Ethier and James Loney return to form; adding the potent bat of former-Angel Juan Rivera to this lineup should help them score enough runs to win the very competitive NL West. 2012 PROJECTION: 92-70
*Miami Marlins (72-90) - After spending tons of free agent money in acquiring shortstop Jose Reyes, pitcher Mark Buerhle, and aging closer Heath Bell, while importing volatile manager Ozzie Guillen to run the ship, and adding the volatile pitcher Carlos Zambrano to the rotation, this team is expected to be much better; along with changing the team name, they'll occupy a brand-new stadium, but will it be enough to reach the postseason in the competitive NL East? That's unlikely, but at least they'll escape the cellar. 2012 PROJECTION: 83-79
*Atlanta Braves (89-73) - They were one of the best teams in baseball for most of last season, boasting a young and very talented bullpen which simply ran out of gas in September. The starting pitching should be good enough, assuming a healthy Tim Hudson returns to the rotation sometime in May, while Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrgens stay healthy and pitch effectively. Second baseman Dan Uggla, who had a terrible start last year but came on strong at the end, should be able to put it all together for a full season; possibly good enough to earn him his first NL MVP Award; also, expect a healthy and trimmed-down Jason Heyward to swing the bat much better this year; finally, if Chipper Jones can keep his knee troubles to a minimum in his final season to play at least 120 games, it could be one to remember; yes, they should be able to get past the banged-up Phillies this time around. 2012 PROJECTION: 95-67
*LA Angels (86-76) - When the Halos landed Albert Pujols, they became the best team in the American League, just like that. Unless he sustains some sort of freak injury, Pujols will have a monster season for his new team, putting up typical AP numbers (last season was an aberration), and become a strong candidate for the AL MVP Award; especially if his new team wins the AL West this time. Not only will Albert do much damage of his own at the dish, he'll make the rest of the lineup better, with his mere presence, batting third in the order. Almost lost in all the Pujols hype is the addition of flaky lefty CJ Wilson to an already formidable starting rotation. 2012 PROJECTION: 96-66
These ten teams are projected to win 96 extra games, over last year. Most of the extra wins will be coming from the 2011 division champions; the end result for 2012 will be much greater parity throughout major league baseball; and that means each division race is likely to come down to the wire this time around, creating even more fun and excitement than last year's Wild Card Wednesday.
Saturday, March 10, 2012
Mike Shannon Did It - Why Not Hanley & Miguel?
Third base - The Hot Corner - has been a hot topic during the off season. While World Series MVP David Freese - a third baseman by trade - has been making the national scene - from Leno to Ellen to some sort of Country Music Awards shin-dig; the Hot Stove League has been filled with heated Hot Corner debate, on a couple of fronts.
It all started when the "new-look" Miami Marlins signed free-agent shortstop Jose Reyes in December to supplant incumbent-former-All-Star shortstop Hanley Ramirez - a young man with a good track record for pouting; who seemed nonplussed with the idea of vacating the safety and security of his All-Star position for one that is dangerous and - worse yet - potentially humiliating.
More recently, Detroit Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera is gladly accepting the challenge of moving over to third base to make room for his new teammate, former Milwaukee Brewers All-Star slugger Prince Fielder. Although Cabrera has played two full seasons at third base while a relatively lean member of the pre-Miami-Florida Marlins (2006-'07), it remains to be seen how the current, larger-than-life version of Cabrera will fare. While the extra "padding" he's acquired over the past several years may protect his internal organs from trauma in case his glove isn't quick enough; the big question: Will he be able to successfully execute enough fielding opportunities to avoid becoming a defensive liability?
For Hanley Ramirez, perhaps his biggest challenge will be dealing with the inevitable miscues at his new position without going ballistic. He's a remarkable athlete who should be able play third base reasonably well once he adjusts to its nuances; however, if he goes off the deep end before he has a chance to grow into the position, he may be better off finding another team to call home - one that needs a decent shortstop who specializes in hitting.
While Cabrera and Ramirez deal with their new challenges in 2012, it brought to mind a similar transition which happened forty-five seasons ago, on a team that was surprisingly poised for a World Championship - the '67 St Louis Cardinals.
Coming off a dismal sixth place finish in 1966 (83-79), the Cardinals created a minor stir in the baseball world on December 8, 1966 when they traded third baseman Charlie Smith to the New York Yankees for their unpopular and disgruntled right fielder, Roger Maris. Maris, who was never comfortable in the glare of the New York spotlight, welcomed the change of venue as his career was winding down. Adding Maris to the roster created a temporary log-jam in right field, which was quickly addressed when the Cardinal hierarchy decided to move incumbent right fielder, Mike Shannon to third base; filling the void created with Smith's departure.
Shannon, with no previous major league experience at any infield position - let alone third base - eagerly accepted the new challenge. His approach to learning the new position was what he referred to as "The Army Way" - a simple and pragmatic way to play defense. He described the process in the following manner:
*Get in front of ball
*Knock it down
*Pick it up
*Throw it to first base
Mike Shannon may have been the worst defensive third baseman in the National League in 1967, but he survived. Without getting overly bogged down with saber-metrics, Shannon's fielding deficiencies allowed an extra dozen or so runs to score over the course of the season than "average". Fortunately, nobody was really keeping track of that kind of stuff back then (his "range" was also below average), so Shannon's first season at third base was relatively stress-free. By season's end, his fielding percentage of .919 (.950 was league average) was hardly noticed by any Redbirds fan, as St Louis not only won the pennant, they proceeded to knock off the Boston Red Sox in a classic Seven Game World Series.
It wasn't pretty, but Shannon's mission had been accomplished. To his credit, his defensive skills at the hot corner improved dramatically the following season (only slightly below average), as the Cards cruised to their second straight pennant; this time losing to Detroit in another classic Seven Game Fall Classic.
For nervous fans of the Tigers and Marlins; relax. Your new third basemen should be able to get the job done without killing the team. After all, if Mike Shannon could do it; why not Hanley and Miguel?
More recently, Detroit Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera is gladly accepting the challenge of moving over to third base to make room for his new teammate, former Milwaukee Brewers All-Star slugger Prince Fielder. Although Cabrera has played two full seasons at third base while a relatively lean member of the pre-Miami-Florida Marlins (2006-'07), it remains to be seen how the current, larger-than-life version of Cabrera will fare. While the extra "padding" he's acquired over the past several years may protect his internal organs from trauma in case his glove isn't quick enough; the big question: Will he be able to successfully execute enough fielding opportunities to avoid becoming a defensive liability?
For Hanley Ramirez, perhaps his biggest challenge will be dealing with the inevitable miscues at his new position without going ballistic. He's a remarkable athlete who should be able play third base reasonably well once he adjusts to its nuances; however, if he goes off the deep end before he has a chance to grow into the position, he may be better off finding another team to call home - one that needs a decent shortstop who specializes in hitting.
While Cabrera and Ramirez deal with their new challenges in 2012, it brought to mind a similar transition which happened forty-five seasons ago, on a team that was surprisingly poised for a World Championship - the '67 St Louis Cardinals.
Coming off a dismal sixth place finish in 1966 (83-79), the Cardinals created a minor stir in the baseball world on December 8, 1966 when they traded third baseman Charlie Smith to the New York Yankees for their unpopular and disgruntled right fielder, Roger Maris. Maris, who was never comfortable in the glare of the New York spotlight, welcomed the change of venue as his career was winding down. Adding Maris to the roster created a temporary log-jam in right field, which was quickly addressed when the Cardinal hierarchy decided to move incumbent right fielder, Mike Shannon to third base; filling the void created with Smith's departure.
Shannon, with no previous major league experience at any infield position - let alone third base - eagerly accepted the new challenge. His approach to learning the new position was what he referred to as "The Army Way" - a simple and pragmatic way to play defense. He described the process in the following manner:
*Get in front of ball
*Knock it down
*Pick it up
*Throw it to first base
Mike Shannon may have been the worst defensive third baseman in the National League in 1967, but he survived. Without getting overly bogged down with saber-metrics, Shannon's fielding deficiencies allowed an extra dozen or so runs to score over the course of the season than "average". Fortunately, nobody was really keeping track of that kind of stuff back then (his "range" was also below average), so Shannon's first season at third base was relatively stress-free. By season's end, his fielding percentage of .919 (.950 was league average) was hardly noticed by any Redbirds fan, as St Louis not only won the pennant, they proceeded to knock off the Boston Red Sox in a classic Seven Game World Series.
It wasn't pretty, but Shannon's mission had been accomplished. To his credit, his defensive skills at the hot corner improved dramatically the following season (only slightly below average), as the Cards cruised to their second straight pennant; this time losing to Detroit in another classic Seven Game Fall Classic.
For nervous fans of the Tigers and Marlins; relax. Your new third basemen should be able to get the job done without killing the team. After all, if Mike Shannon could do it; why not Hanley and Miguel?
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)