What was the best season ever recorded by a reliever in major league history? Many baseball experts point to Dennis Eckersley's 1990 season when the Hall of Fame closer for the Oakland A's posted the lowest ERA ever for a reliever - 0.61 - while recording 48 saves in 73.1 innings of work. His ERA+ of 603 is so far off the charts, it's ridiculous. In fact, MLB Network recently aired a Prime Nine episode highlighting the Top Nine Reliever Seasons of All-Time, and this particular effort was ranked Number One.
Apparently, Prime Nine doesn't believe in all that saber-metrics stuff like the Baseball Reference.com Wins Over Replacement (WAR) measurement. But we do, and Eckersley's 3.2 WAR is good for 9th-place on this list. Strangely enough, Eric Gagne's 2003 season (MLB-record 55 straight saves) may be Number Two on Prime Nine, but is 8th over here. Go figure.
Here's how Gagne and the others fared (Prime Nine's rank in parenthesis) - In ascending order by WAR - along with ERA, IP, CYA & MVP voting.
2003 - Eric Gagne (2) - 1.20 ERA - 82.1 IP - 3.6 WAR (Won NL CYA)
1998 - Trevor Hoffman (8) - 1.48 ERA - 73.0 IP - 4.0 WAR (2nd NL CYA)
1984 - Willie Hernandez (9) - 1.92 ERA - 140.1 IP - 4.6 WAR (Won AL CYA & MVP)
1996 - Mariano Rivera (6) - 2.09 ERA - 107.2 IP - 4.8 WAR (3rd AL CYA)
1977 - Bruce Sutter (4) - 1.34 ERA - 107.1 IP - 6.5 WAR (6th NL CYA)
1986 - Mark Eichorn (7) - 1.72 ERA - 157.0 IP - 7.1 WAR (6th AL CYA)
1973 - John Hiller (3) - 1.44 ERA - 125.1 IP - 7.9 WAR (4th AL CYA)
1975 - Goose Gossage (5) - 1.84 ERA - 141.2 IP - 8.1 WAR (T-6th AL CYA)
Not that the baseball writers who vote on MVP and Cy Young Awards are dumb, but the guys at the top of this list had the lowest Wins Over Replacement calculations - yet the strongest support for postseason awards - whereas the guys like Eichorn, Hiller and Gossage - with exceptionally high WAR totals - hardly received any support at all. Go figure.
Of course, back in the '70s and '80s, the concept of Wins Over Replacement had yet to be developed. Voters typically gave the pitcher with the most wins the most CYA support - or in the case of relievers - an unusually high saves total. Of course, those numbers can be misleading; when Gossage saved 28 games in '75 (he also won 9), he often worked more than just an inning or two to secure the win. Many of the games he entered were in the middle innings with runners on base; his job was to put out the fire, then keep the other team at bay until the last out was recorded. Now those were real saves; it also explains why he pitched about twice as many innings as Eckersley, Gagne and Hoffman; and why his WAR was more than two times higher than those other guys. But what can be expected from part-time help; aside from multi-million dollar contracts?
It's nobody's fault; this is how the game is being managed today. The art of securing saves has become a joint effort, for the most part, often employing the services of a 7th-inning specialist, then the set-up man, then the closer. It's an efficient system, since having three fresh arms coming in to pitch the last thee innings or so to secure a win makes perfect sense. Of course, Gossage used to perform all three functions by himself, thank you very much. Doing it the old-fashioned Gossage way not only freed-up a couple of spots on the roster, it probably saved his team (Chicago White Sox) a little bit of money on payroll expense. Of course, in 1975, that didn't amount to much.
However, in 2013, just about everybody working in the bullpen will be making anywhere from a couple of million to $15 million per year. These salaries are skyrocketing because most front offices in MLB have bought into the notion that relievers (part-time employees) are actually worth as much, if not more than a starting pitcher or position player (full-time employees).
Saves are nice, of course. However, when they come by rather cheaply, their significance is overrated; and for teams looking to trim the payroll, there appears to be no relief in sight - just plenty of relievers.
Saturday, December 8, 2012
Thursday, November 29, 2012
Chapman to Rotation Makes Sabermetric Sense
The Cincinnati Reds' plan to move lefty power-closer Aroldis Chapman and his 100 mph fastball into the starting rotation has drawn the ire of many baseball analysts, including MLB Network's Mitch "Wild Thing" Williams. For that reason alone, the decision makes sense, since the inaccuracy of "Wild Thing's" assessments and predictions is nearly 100%.
Aside from that compelling bit of logic, Chapman's transition from the bullpen to the starting rotation would potentially give Cincinnati around 200 innings pitched*, as opposed to the 71.2 he logged in 2012. Those extra innings - assuming they are "quality innings" - would translate into more wins for Cincinnati; a scary thought for the rest of the NL Central, considering the Reds already won 97 games in 2012.
*UPDATE: Word from the Reds' front office is that Chapman will be under an innings limit when he goes into the rotation. No word on what that innings limit will be, however.
The saber-metric evidence is compelling: Good starting pitchers are more valuable than even the elite relief specialists; sometimes, significantly more valuable. Observe the disparity in the ERA+ of Chapman over the top four starting pitchers in the 2012 NL Cy Young Award voting; then observe the disparity in the Wins Above Replacement (WAR) of the four starters over Chapman:
ERA+ WAR
Dickey - 140 5.6
Kershaw - 150 6.2
Gonzalez - 137 4.5
Cueto - 152 5.8
Chapman - 282 3.6
Chapman's ERA+ is roughly two times better than the four best starting pitchers in the National League; yet the limited use of his talents translates into fewer wins for his team than the other four. As an aside, it appears that either Kershaw or Cueto might have a stronger case for the CYA than Dickey; however, somebody else can write about that.
Historically, even when relief specialists get the nod for either the Most Valuable Player Award and/or the Cy Young Award, they don't compare favorably to other players in the voting mix, from a purely saber-metric perspective. Here's the evidence - the award winners who were strictly relief specialists - their WAR, their rank compared to other players receiving votes, and the player who actually had the highest WAR:
WAR Rank Highest Player
1950 - NL MVP Jim Konstanty (PHI) 4.2 16th 7.8 Eddie Stanky (NYG)
1974 - NL CYA Mike Marshall (LAD) 2.9 5th 7.5 Phil Niekro (ATL)
1977 - AL CYA Sparky Lyle (NYY) 3.5 9th 8.0 Frank Tanana (CAA)
1979 - NL CYA Bruce Sutter (CHC) 4.9 3rd 7.0 Phil Niekro (ATL)
1981 - AL MVP Rollie Fingers (MIL) 4.1 10th 6.6 Rickey Henderson (OAK) &
Dwight Evans (BOS)
1981 - AL CYA Rollie Fingers (MIL) 4.1 2nd 4.3 Steve McCatty (OAK)
1984 - AL MVP Willie Hernandez (DET) 4.6 14th 9.8 Cal Ripken (BAL)*
1984 - AL CYA Willie Hernandez (DET) 4.6 4th 7.6 Dave Stieb (TOR)
1987 - NL CYA Steve Bedrosian (PHI) 2.2 8th** 6.8 Bob Welch (LAD)
1992 - AL MVP Dennis Eckersley (OAK) 2.8 17th 8.4 Roger Clemens (BOS)
1992 - AL CYA Dennis Eckersley (OAK) 2.8 6th 8.4 Roger Clemens (BOS)
2003 - NL CYA Eric Gagne (LAD) 3.6 3rd 7.2 Mark Prior (CHC)
Notes: *Despite having the highest WAR in the AL in 1984 (before WAR was even devised), Cal Ripken garnered the grand total of ONE POINT in the MVP vote! **Steve Bedrosian (who saved 40 games) had the lowest WAR among all pitchers receiving NL CYA votes in 1987! Surely, there were others not receiving votes that had a higher WAR than Bedrock's 2.2.
The impact on MLB history may not seem significant if the players with the highest WAR actually won these awards, but it surely would've gotten Phil Niekro in the HOF sooner had he won both the '74 and '79 NL Cy Young Awards! Ironically, a knuckleball pitcher won the NL CYA this past season - RA Dickey - and it was the first time in MLB history that had happened; but it should've happened 38 years ago.
In the "borderline" case of Dwight Evans, perhaps winning the 1981 AL MVP Award would've put him over the top with the voters; he certainly belongs in Cooperstown. Hopefully, as they become more saber-metrically informed, worthy players like Evans will finally get their just rewards.
Although some may disagree with the evidence, it seems apparent that a great starting pitcher is comparable to a great everyday player, in terms of the value they provide for their team. The argument baseball analysts (like Mitch Williams) use when trying to dispel the notion that no pitcher should be considered for a Most Valuable Player Award - because they're not "everyday players" - is saber-metrically unfounded. Some of the highest WAR totals over the years belong to starting pitchers; just not relief pitchers.
Another compelling piece of evidence: The elite relief specialists obviously receive a lot of media attention for racking up a lot of saves; but it appears the "save" may be one of the most overrated statistics in MLB history. That probably explains why a fairly mediocre relief pitcher like Steve Bedrosian - with those 40 saves in 1987 - was able to capture the NL Cy Young Award that year. Strangely enough, the greatest closer ever - the New York Yankees' Mariano Rivera - never won a CYA, although he finished second once and third twice.
It's also interesting to note that for whatever reasons, no team has ever won a World Series with a closer that has recorded 50 or more saves; it's happened on nine different occasions, but has yet to help produce a World Championship for any team. Go figure.
That gets us back to the Aroldis Chapman debate. Quite simply, if he's able to still pitch effectively as a starter and give the Reds somewhere around 200 IP next season (assuming he stays healthy), he'll be helping them win more games, and that seems to be a gamble worth taking; a no-brainer, especially for a team with no left-handed starters currently in the rotation.
Taking it one step further, if Chapman even comes close to matching the level of performance he produced in 2012, the next NL Cy Young Award winner may well be a former flame-throwing, somersaulting, left-handed relief specialist currently employed by the Cincinnati Reds; who were smart enough to put him in a role that made saber-metric sense.
Thursday, November 22, 2012
Cabrera-Bashing Tarnishes MVP Honor
If you regularly watch MLB Network's Clubhouse Confidential segment - hosted by the analytically brilliant Brian Kenny - chances are, you're gaining insight into the saber-metric side of baseball; and that's a good thing. Unfortunately, Kenny and his legion of saber-metric fanatics may have gone too far with their relentless attack of American League Most Valuable Player, Miguel Cabrera - you know; the guy who won the AL Triple Crown (last accomplished by Carl Yastrzemski forty-five years ago) while leading his Detroit Tigers team into the postseason for the second straight year (the first time that's happened since 1934 and '35).
While Cabrera's historic season should have made him a lock to win the AL MVP Award (in fact, it did), the saber-metrics community felt otherwise; essentially drawing a line in the sand in support of LA Angels of Anaheim rookie sensation, Mike Trout. Okay; Mike Trout is a better all-round player than Miguel Cabrera, but under the subjective nature of this award, not necessarily "more valuable". Hence, the MVP Award went to Miggy and the debate intensified to epic proportions; saber-metric Cabrera-bashing became the latest trend, and leading the charge on MLB Network was the uncompromising Brian Kenny, who refused to believe anyone with a brain could possibly support the Detroit slugger. Such a travesty.
What Kenny refuses to accept is the reality that voters (sportswriters) are usually impressed by big offensive numbers, especially when they help carry a team into the postseason. That makes for good copy. Sometimes, big offensive numbers plus a last place finish is even good enough to win (1987 - Andre Dawson - 49 HR/137 RBI). Talk about a travesty.
In the aftermath of the Cabrera MVP Travesty of 2012, Brian Kenny has paraded various guest saber-metric analysts on his program - including the witty and smug Keith Olbermann - decrying the injustice and outright stupidity of it all. One of Kenny's guest saber-geeks solemnly remarked how "sad" it was that the sportswriters did the unthinkable, thus depriving the 20-year old rookie of the award he so richly deserved. Oh, the humanity. This may be worse than the Hindenburg Disaster.
I'll tell you what's sad. It's how the game's greatest pure hitter - Miguel Cabrera - finally wins his first MVP Award, and is being declared "undeserving" by the Brian Kennys of the world, who apparently don't like being on the losing side of their saber-metric arguments. We're talking about an individual award to a ballplayer coming off a terrific season. Let him bask in a little glory; not stick him under the microscope and comment about all his deficiencies. To say there have been far less-deserving players over the years who were chosen "Most Valuable" in their league is an understatement.
In defense of the current crop of voting sportswriters, they've been doing a credible job of selecting players who are at or near the top of the Wins Above Replacement (WAR) saber-metric guidelines; at least in the current millennium. How all this mumbo-jumbo is calculated is beyond me; however, when Albert Pujols won it on three separate occasions (2005, 2008 & 2009), he indeed had the NL's highest WAR each season. In fact, he also had the highest WAR on a couple of occasions when he didn't win (2006 & 2010); and I don't recall anybody complaining about those two snubs. The great Stan The Man Musial - who recently celebrated his 92nd birthday - only won three MVP Awards, but could have easily won another three or four.
Ted Williams was never very popular with a lot of the sportswriters, which partly explains why his incredible season in 1941 - featuring his iconic .406 BA - was trumped by Joe DiMaggio's equally iconic 56-game hitting streak. Perhaps the most galling snub came when a Teddy Ballgame Triple Crown-season in 1947 was clipped by a rather mediocre Yankee Clipper-season, by a single point.
Many other all-time greats like Mays and Aaron have been consistently snubbed over the years by the likes of Maury Wills and Dick Groat, among others. Generally speaking, if a player wins a batting championship on a pennant winner (Groat) or establishes some new MLB (stolen base) record (Wills), sportswriters eat that stuff up. Every now and then, superior players on bad teams are selected (Ernie Banks in '58 and '59), but once their "quota" is fulfilled, they'd really have to go wild to get another one. Banks had another great year in 1960, but winning three times in a row just wasn't happening.
A couple of my favorite MVP's - Kenny Boyer (1964) and Orlando Cepeda (1967) both led the NL in RBI's playing on pennant winning St Louis Cardinal teams. Much to my surprise, there were several other players with higher WAR totals than the former Redbird heroes; especially surprising, since the vote for Cepeda was unanimous in 1967. Go figure.
Meanwhile, as the outrage over the selection of Miggy over Trouty was starting to wane, our saber-metric hero on MLB Network decided it would be fun to review previous MVP selections on his Clubhouse Confidential program which he deemed "wrong". I wonder if I was the only one surprised when he chose to nitpick the 2005 NL MVP Award which went to Albert Pujols of the 100-win NL Central champion-St Louis Cardinals, instead of Derrick Lee of the sub-.500 Chicago Cubs. Both had very similar offensive numbers, but Lee's slugging percentage was about fifty points higher, plus he won the Gold Glove and Silver Slugger Award. I suppose a clean sweep of the awards would've been nice for Lee, but for some reason those crazy sportswriters took the guy from the 100-win team instead. "What were they thinking?" suggested the irrepressible Kenny.
I'll tell you what they were thinking, Brian. They were thinking Pujols was the best player in the National League that season, who played a key role in the success of his team. His "value" to his team is best measured by his NL-leading 8.2 WAR. I'm surprised Brian Kenny failed to realize that before he decided to tell his viewers something that made no saber-metric sense whatsoever. And that's a travesty.
No, the real travesty is subjecting the likable and extremely talented Miguel Cabrera to unfair scrutiny of an honor he deserved - American League Most Valuable Player - 2012. The last time I checked, Andre Dawson got to keep his; along with George Bell, Don Baylor and Jeff Burroughs, for that matter. None of those guys won the Triple Crown, by the way.
While Cabrera's historic season should have made him a lock to win the AL MVP Award (in fact, it did), the saber-metrics community felt otherwise; essentially drawing a line in the sand in support of LA Angels of Anaheim rookie sensation, Mike Trout. Okay; Mike Trout is a better all-round player than Miguel Cabrera, but under the subjective nature of this award, not necessarily "more valuable". Hence, the MVP Award went to Miggy and the debate intensified to epic proportions; saber-metric Cabrera-bashing became the latest trend, and leading the charge on MLB Network was the uncompromising Brian Kenny, who refused to believe anyone with a brain could possibly support the Detroit slugger. Such a travesty.
What Kenny refuses to accept is the reality that voters (sportswriters) are usually impressed by big offensive numbers, especially when they help carry a team into the postseason. That makes for good copy. Sometimes, big offensive numbers plus a last place finish is even good enough to win (1987 - Andre Dawson - 49 HR/137 RBI). Talk about a travesty.
In the aftermath of the Cabrera MVP Travesty of 2012, Brian Kenny has paraded various guest saber-metric analysts on his program - including the witty and smug Keith Olbermann - decrying the injustice and outright stupidity of it all. One of Kenny's guest saber-geeks solemnly remarked how "sad" it was that the sportswriters did the unthinkable, thus depriving the 20-year old rookie of the award he so richly deserved. Oh, the humanity. This may be worse than the Hindenburg Disaster.
I'll tell you what's sad. It's how the game's greatest pure hitter - Miguel Cabrera - finally wins his first MVP Award, and is being declared "undeserving" by the Brian Kennys of the world, who apparently don't like being on the losing side of their saber-metric arguments. We're talking about an individual award to a ballplayer coming off a terrific season. Let him bask in a little glory; not stick him under the microscope and comment about all his deficiencies. To say there have been far less-deserving players over the years who were chosen "Most Valuable" in their league is an understatement.
In defense of the current crop of voting sportswriters, they've been doing a credible job of selecting players who are at or near the top of the Wins Above Replacement (WAR) saber-metric guidelines; at least in the current millennium. How all this mumbo-jumbo is calculated is beyond me; however, when Albert Pujols won it on three separate occasions (2005, 2008 & 2009), he indeed had the NL's highest WAR each season. In fact, he also had the highest WAR on a couple of occasions when he didn't win (2006 & 2010); and I don't recall anybody complaining about those two snubs. The great Stan The Man Musial - who recently celebrated his 92nd birthday - only won three MVP Awards, but could have easily won another three or four.
Ted Williams was never very popular with a lot of the sportswriters, which partly explains why his incredible season in 1941 - featuring his iconic .406 BA - was trumped by Joe DiMaggio's equally iconic 56-game hitting streak. Perhaps the most galling snub came when a Teddy Ballgame Triple Crown-season in 1947 was clipped by a rather mediocre Yankee Clipper-season, by a single point.
Many other all-time greats like Mays and Aaron have been consistently snubbed over the years by the likes of Maury Wills and Dick Groat, among others. Generally speaking, if a player wins a batting championship on a pennant winner (Groat) or establishes some new MLB (stolen base) record (Wills), sportswriters eat that stuff up. Every now and then, superior players on bad teams are selected (Ernie Banks in '58 and '59), but once their "quota" is fulfilled, they'd really have to go wild to get another one. Banks had another great year in 1960, but winning three times in a row just wasn't happening.
A couple of my favorite MVP's - Kenny Boyer (1964) and Orlando Cepeda (1967) both led the NL in RBI's playing on pennant winning St Louis Cardinal teams. Much to my surprise, there were several other players with higher WAR totals than the former Redbird heroes; especially surprising, since the vote for Cepeda was unanimous in 1967. Go figure.
Meanwhile, as the outrage over the selection of Miggy over Trouty was starting to wane, our saber-metric hero on MLB Network decided it would be fun to review previous MVP selections on his Clubhouse Confidential program which he deemed "wrong". I wonder if I was the only one surprised when he chose to nitpick the 2005 NL MVP Award which went to Albert Pujols of the 100-win NL Central champion-St Louis Cardinals, instead of Derrick Lee of the sub-.500 Chicago Cubs. Both had very similar offensive numbers, but Lee's slugging percentage was about fifty points higher, plus he won the Gold Glove and Silver Slugger Award. I suppose a clean sweep of the awards would've been nice for Lee, but for some reason those crazy sportswriters took the guy from the 100-win team instead. "What were they thinking?" suggested the irrepressible Kenny.
I'll tell you what they were thinking, Brian. They were thinking Pujols was the best player in the National League that season, who played a key role in the success of his team. His "value" to his team is best measured by his NL-leading 8.2 WAR. I'm surprised Brian Kenny failed to realize that before he decided to tell his viewers something that made no saber-metric sense whatsoever. And that's a travesty.
No, the real travesty is subjecting the likable and extremely talented Miguel Cabrera to unfair scrutiny of an honor he deserved - American League Most Valuable Player - 2012. The last time I checked, Andre Dawson got to keep his; along with George Bell, Don Baylor and Jeff Burroughs, for that matter. None of those guys won the Triple Crown, by the way.
Saturday, November 3, 2012
Postseason "Wild Ride" Nothing New for Cardinals
A little over two weeks ago, Barry Zito - an unlikely hero - pitched the San Francisco Giants back into the National League Championship Series, winning Game Five over the Cardinals at Busch Stadium, and sending the two teams back to San Francisco for the final two blowouts. Zito's surprising win over the Redbirds was the first of seven consecutive postseason victories San Francisco would compile en route to their second World Championship in the last three seasons.
For the Cardinals, it was a bitter disappointment; ending their postseason dream of successfully defending a World Championship which nobody outside of the St Louis organization thought possible to begin with. Just when so many of the naysayers finally jumped on the Redbirds' bandwagon, those magical bats - which carried them past Atlanta, then Washington DC, and through the early contests with San Francisco - were abruptly neutralized by the Giants' three hottest pitchers: the aforementioned Zito, then Vogelsong and Cain. All pitched brilliantly in the NLCS, and carried that momentum into a World Series four-game sweep of a Detroit Tigers team most baseball analysts predicted would do the "sweeping". They were wrong again (See: 2006 World Series).
Meanwhile, back in Cardinal Nation, the frustration of getting within one win from an eighteenth World Series appearance - and four wins away from their 12th World Championship - had players and fans alike shaking their heads in disbelief. Perhaps many of those disheartened souls don't remember what happened in 1968; or 1985; maybe not even 1996? Perhaps they just remember the last time the Cardinals held a three games to one postseason advantage - over the Detroit Tigers, in the 2006 World Series. Of course, that story had a happy ending, with St Louis taking care of business at home, winning three straight to clinch their 10th World Championship in just five games. Believe it or not, I never felt comfortable about that favorable outcome until that last out was recorded in Game Five. Here's why:
The Cardinals have actually blown more 3 games to 1 postseason leads than not; and more than any other MLB team. After their most recent meltdown against the newly crowned World Champions - the Redbirds, in their long and glorious history - have now blown four, while only winning three, after holding that seemingly insurmountable three games to one postseason advantage. To get a better understanding of what went wrong, let's examine the crime scenes:
1968 WORLD SERIES VS DETROIT TIGERS - Strangely enough, it was the Detroit Tigers who trailed Bob Gibson and the St Louis Cardinals in the 1968 World Series, three games to one, but proceeded to win the final three games of that Fall Classic; including the Game Seven shocker, when Mickey Lolich out-dueled the Great Gibson in front of 54,692 stunned Cardinals' fans at Busch Stadium. As I skipped a day of drudgery from Kirkwood High School to watch what was surely going to be another Gibson triumph on national television; in a little more than two hours, had evolved into a numbing defeat; the first of its kind for Cardinal fans:
*This was the first time in franchise history the team had ever coughed up a three games to one advantage in the World Series to lose.
*This was the first time in Bob Gibson's history that he had ever lost a World Series - Game Seven. He prevailed in 1964 over the mighty New York Yankees; and three years later, pitched brilliantly and even hit a home run to beat the Boston Red Sox by a score of 7-2 at Fenway Park, in front of 35,188 stunned fans. With Game Seven in '68 being played at Busch Stadium, the thought of losing never even crossed my mind; nor the minds of most other Redbird fans, for that matter.
1985 WORLD SERIES VS KANSAS CITY ROYALS - If anything, blowing a three games to one World Series advantage in the cross-state I-70 showdown with the Royals seemed even more improbable than what had occurred seventeen years earlier; especially after St Louis won the first two games on the road. Until that time, no team in World Series history had ever lost the first two games at home, and then gone on to win it all; of course, that's exactly what happened. When the Royals won two out of three at Busch Stadium, the Cardinals were forced into a return trip to KC to capture title number ten; but we all know what happened in Games Six and Seven. Kansas City won their first World Championship instead, while St Louis would have to wait another 21 years to get that tenth title.
1996 NLCS VS ATLANTA BRAVES - In Tony LaRussa's first year as manager, the NL Central champion Cardinals somehow grabbed a quick three games to one NLCS advantage over the defending World Champion Braves. Coming off an exciting comeback win in Game Four didn't give the Cardinals enough momentum to overcome a clearly superior Atlanta pitching staff, which allowed just one run over those last three games. Nor could they stop an offense that put crooked numbers on the scoreboard at an alarming rate; the Braves scored 32 runs in that span, featuring a 15-0 annihilation in that final debacle. Although this setback was a disappointment, it came as no big surprise. After all, the Cards fell to three future Hall of Fame hurlers - Smoltz, Maddux and Glavine - and a ferocious lineup that seemed to be able to score at will. The over-matched Redbirds were fortunate to have extended the series for the full seven games.
2012 NLCS VS SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS - Well, at least the Cardinals made a bit of progress, as rookie manager Mike Matheny led his Wild Card team into the postseason, all the way to the NLCS; this time losing those final three games of the series by a composite 20-1 margin; a twelve-run improvement! Still, the last three "Game Sevens" produced no runs for the Redbirds; lots of runs for their opponents; thirty-nine, to be exact. All told, St Louis was outscored 93-9 in Games 5-6-7 by the postseason quartet of Detroit/Kansas City/Atlanta/San Francisco. If someone is going to draw up a blueprint for blowing a three-games-to-one postseason lead, getting outscored 93-9 by four teams works quite well.
So much for rehashing epic collapses. How about some remarkable postseason comebacks? No, the Cardinals have never been down three games to one and successfully overcome that deficit to win a best-of-seven postseason series; but they've perfected the art of coming back when trailing three games to TWO. And that ain't bad. Here's a quick summary of how things played out (and where Series ended) when the Redbirds faced a three games to two postseason series deficit (They've had a lot of experience in these situations - 9 different times):
1926 vs New York Yankees - STL Wins Series (Home)
1930 vs Philadelphia Athletics - STL Loses Series in 6 Games (Away)
1934 vs Detroit Tigers - STL Wins Series (Away)
1946 vs Boston Red Sox - STL Wins Series (Home)
1982 vs Milwaukee Brewers - STL Wins Series (Home)
1987 vs San Francisco Giants - STL Wins Series (Home)
2004 vs Houston Astros - STL Wins Series (Home)
2005 vs Houston Astros - STL Loses Series in 6 Games (Home)
2011 vs Texas Rangers - STL Wins Series (Home)
From their very first World Championship in 1926 to their most recent title in 2011 - and five other times in between - the Cardinals have managed to overcome seven out of nine 3-games-to-2 deficits; six out of seven comebacks were finished off at home for Games Six and Seven. That's a pretty impressive postseason resume for St Louis, after all.
If this kind of stuff fascinates you as much as me, check out my two books on Cards' trivia (below).
http://www.amazon.com/St-Louis-Cardinals-IQ-Ultimate/dp/0982675933/ref=cm_pdp_books_itm_title_4
http://www.amazon.com/St-Louis-Cardinals-IQ-Ultimate/dp/0983792259/ref=cm_pdp_books_itm_title_5
For the Cardinals, it was a bitter disappointment; ending their postseason dream of successfully defending a World Championship which nobody outside of the St Louis organization thought possible to begin with. Just when so many of the naysayers finally jumped on the Redbirds' bandwagon, those magical bats - which carried them past Atlanta, then Washington DC, and through the early contests with San Francisco - were abruptly neutralized by the Giants' three hottest pitchers: the aforementioned Zito, then Vogelsong and Cain. All pitched brilliantly in the NLCS, and carried that momentum into a World Series four-game sweep of a Detroit Tigers team most baseball analysts predicted would do the "sweeping". They were wrong again (See: 2006 World Series).
Meanwhile, back in Cardinal Nation, the frustration of getting within one win from an eighteenth World Series appearance - and four wins away from their 12th World Championship - had players and fans alike shaking their heads in disbelief. Perhaps many of those disheartened souls don't remember what happened in 1968; or 1985; maybe not even 1996? Perhaps they just remember the last time the Cardinals held a three games to one postseason advantage - over the Detroit Tigers, in the 2006 World Series. Of course, that story had a happy ending, with St Louis taking care of business at home, winning three straight to clinch their 10th World Championship in just five games. Believe it or not, I never felt comfortable about that favorable outcome until that last out was recorded in Game Five. Here's why:
The Cardinals have actually blown more 3 games to 1 postseason leads than not; and more than any other MLB team. After their most recent meltdown against the newly crowned World Champions - the Redbirds, in their long and glorious history - have now blown four, while only winning three, after holding that seemingly insurmountable three games to one postseason advantage. To get a better understanding of what went wrong, let's examine the crime scenes:
1968 WORLD SERIES VS DETROIT TIGERS - Strangely enough, it was the Detroit Tigers who trailed Bob Gibson and the St Louis Cardinals in the 1968 World Series, three games to one, but proceeded to win the final three games of that Fall Classic; including the Game Seven shocker, when Mickey Lolich out-dueled the Great Gibson in front of 54,692 stunned Cardinals' fans at Busch Stadium. As I skipped a day of drudgery from Kirkwood High School to watch what was surely going to be another Gibson triumph on national television; in a little more than two hours, had evolved into a numbing defeat; the first of its kind for Cardinal fans:
*This was the first time in franchise history the team had ever coughed up a three games to one advantage in the World Series to lose.
*This was the first time in Bob Gibson's history that he had ever lost a World Series - Game Seven. He prevailed in 1964 over the mighty New York Yankees; and three years later, pitched brilliantly and even hit a home run to beat the Boston Red Sox by a score of 7-2 at Fenway Park, in front of 35,188 stunned fans. With Game Seven in '68 being played at Busch Stadium, the thought of losing never even crossed my mind; nor the minds of most other Redbird fans, for that matter.
1985 WORLD SERIES VS KANSAS CITY ROYALS - If anything, blowing a three games to one World Series advantage in the cross-state I-70 showdown with the Royals seemed even more improbable than what had occurred seventeen years earlier; especially after St Louis won the first two games on the road. Until that time, no team in World Series history had ever lost the first two games at home, and then gone on to win it all; of course, that's exactly what happened. When the Royals won two out of three at Busch Stadium, the Cardinals were forced into a return trip to KC to capture title number ten; but we all know what happened in Games Six and Seven. Kansas City won their first World Championship instead, while St Louis would have to wait another 21 years to get that tenth title.
1996 NLCS VS ATLANTA BRAVES - In Tony LaRussa's first year as manager, the NL Central champion Cardinals somehow grabbed a quick three games to one NLCS advantage over the defending World Champion Braves. Coming off an exciting comeback win in Game Four didn't give the Cardinals enough momentum to overcome a clearly superior Atlanta pitching staff, which allowed just one run over those last three games. Nor could they stop an offense that put crooked numbers on the scoreboard at an alarming rate; the Braves scored 32 runs in that span, featuring a 15-0 annihilation in that final debacle. Although this setback was a disappointment, it came as no big surprise. After all, the Cards fell to three future Hall of Fame hurlers - Smoltz, Maddux and Glavine - and a ferocious lineup that seemed to be able to score at will. The over-matched Redbirds were fortunate to have extended the series for the full seven games.
2012 NLCS VS SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS - Well, at least the Cardinals made a bit of progress, as rookie manager Mike Matheny led his Wild Card team into the postseason, all the way to the NLCS; this time losing those final three games of the series by a composite 20-1 margin; a twelve-run improvement! Still, the last three "Game Sevens" produced no runs for the Redbirds; lots of runs for their opponents; thirty-nine, to be exact. All told, St Louis was outscored 93-9 in Games 5-6-7 by the postseason quartet of Detroit/Kansas City/Atlanta/San Francisco. If someone is going to draw up a blueprint for blowing a three-games-to-one postseason lead, getting outscored 93-9 by four teams works quite well.
So much for rehashing epic collapses. How about some remarkable postseason comebacks? No, the Cardinals have never been down three games to one and successfully overcome that deficit to win a best-of-seven postseason series; but they've perfected the art of coming back when trailing three games to TWO. And that ain't bad. Here's a quick summary of how things played out (and where Series ended) when the Redbirds faced a three games to two postseason series deficit (They've had a lot of experience in these situations - 9 different times):
1926 vs New York Yankees - STL Wins Series (Home)
1930 vs Philadelphia Athletics - STL Loses Series in 6 Games (Away)
1934 vs Detroit Tigers - STL Wins Series (Away)
1946 vs Boston Red Sox - STL Wins Series (Home)
1982 vs Milwaukee Brewers - STL Wins Series (Home)
1987 vs San Francisco Giants - STL Wins Series (Home)
2004 vs Houston Astros - STL Wins Series (Home)
2005 vs Houston Astros - STL Loses Series in 6 Games (Home)
2011 vs Texas Rangers - STL Wins Series (Home)
From their very first World Championship in 1926 to their most recent title in 2011 - and five other times in between - the Cardinals have managed to overcome seven out of nine 3-games-to-2 deficits; six out of seven comebacks were finished off at home for Games Six and Seven. That's a pretty impressive postseason resume for St Louis, after all.
If this kind of stuff fascinates you as much as me, check out my two books on Cards' trivia (below).
http://www.amazon.com/St-Louis-Cardinals-IQ-Ultimate/dp/0982675933/ref=cm_pdp_books_itm_title_4
http://www.amazon.com/St-Louis-Cardinals-IQ-Ultimate/dp/0983792259/ref=cm_pdp_books_itm_title_5
Tuesday, October 23, 2012
Wild Cards Trumped by Resilient Giants
Sooner or later, something had to give. Both teams in this year's National League Championship Series - the St Louis Cardinals and San Francisco Giants - faced nearly insurmountable odds when they survived the first round of the postseason - the best of five-game-NLDS - in historic fashion. In the end, it was the resilient Giants overcoming a three-games-to-one NLCS deficit to a Cardinals team that simply seemed to run out of gas over those last three agonizing games.
San Francisco's stunning first round three-game sweep of the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ballpark just goes to show that simply because it's "never been done before", doesn't mean it will never happen. No team had ever lost the first two games at home in a divisional series, then go on to win the next three on the road; but it happened. The Reds had never lost three straight games at home all season; but it happened - in the postseason.
Meanwhile, as the giddy-but-weary Giants were patiently waiting at the airport to determine whether they would be going all the way home to take on the Cardinals in the second round of the playoffs, or make the quick jaunt to Washington DC to take on the Nationals; it seemed to be a slam-dunk that they would be heading to our nation's Capitol. Early scoring updates indicated a rout was in the making: 6-0 after three-innings, with the home team comfortably ahead of an apparently overwhelmed Redbirds team.
In postseason history, no team had ever trailed by five or more runs in an elimination game to go on and win the game. Suddenly, the lead was cut in half: 6-3. As the Redbirds clawed back to make the score 6-5 in the top of the eighth-inning, the Nats answered back with a run of their own: 7-5 heading into the ninth-inning.
As the stunned patrons at National's Park witnessed the unprecedented Redbirds rally, which saw the Wild Cards on their usual brink of elimination on several different occasions, new heroes emerged for St Louis - Daniel Descalso and Pete Kozma - who drove in the tying and winning runs, respectively.
Final score: Wild Cards 9 - Nats 7. Cardinal Nation was delirious; the rest of the nation either in awe or bitter dismay, depending on the locale and the opinion of adding that second Wild Card to begin with. The St Louis Wild Cards had already drawn the wrath of every Atlanta Braves fan on earth by having the audacity to beat another ("superior") Wild Card team with a better won-loss record; aided by a questionable call by an umpire, but more importantly, aided by Atlanta's own fielding miscues, led by retiring folk-hero Chipper Jones' throwing error on what should have been an easy double play. Hey, that's not the Wild Cards' fault; don't be mad at them!
The Cardinals had not only escaped that first elimination game in a hostile environment, facing a pitcher who was considered "unbeatable", they ultimately escaped what seemed to be certain elimination in that epic Game Five NLDS shocker over the Nationals.
With the adreniline flowing all the way to San Francisco, the Redbirds put up a quick six spot of their own in Game One of the NLCS against the Giants, and held on to win, 6-4. Clearly, the Giants were as undaunted by a six-run deficit as the Cardinals were; however, the St Louis bullpen did what the Washington bullpen failed to do: Preserve the lead.
After the Giants came back to easily win Game Two, it almost seemed a foregone conclusion this series would probably go six or seven games. The Cardinals headed home, at least somewhat satisfied with splitting the two games at AT&T Park; no easy feat. Yet, barring a sweep of the next three games at Busch Stadium, they would have to endure another trip to the City by the Bay.
However, after the Cardinals won the first two games at the friendly confines of Busch Stadium, to take a that commanding three games to one lead with one more to be played at home, it was obvious that winning Game Five became Priority Number One for St Louis. After the easy 8-3 win in Game Four, it seemed as though all the pundits were proclaiming the Wild Cards National League Champions. The post-game interviews with some of the players seemed a bit too giddy; almost as if it was a foregone conclusion the Giants would roll over and go home after losing Game Five. David Freese inadvertently gave a little sound bite which I'm sure was used to motivate the West division champions:
"San Francisco's a beautiful city, but we don't want to go back there. We want to win it here, tomorrow!"
Of course he wanted to wrap things up at home; Freese was just being honest. Naturally, this sentiment was probably shared by everyone on the team. Of course, the national media repeatedly mentioned this whenever possible; by the time of the revolting loss in Game Five, the Cards were being depicted as a team backpedaling now; no longer brash and confident; now reluctant and unsure of its abilities and unsure of what lies ahead in the hostile environment of AT&T Park.
By the time Game Seven rolled around, I tried to kid myself into believing the Cardinals could win at will; that they always play their best when the stakes are highest. I tried to kid myself into thinking the Giants could never win a Game Seven, simply because they never had in their long history; as if that mattered what would happen in 2012.
I had never been so unsettled prior to a Game Seven since the 1985 World Series. Game Six had been a disaster for Whitey Herzog's squad; jump-started by a bad call at first base by umpire Don Denkinger.
Cleary, St Louis didn't want to play that last game in Kansas City, and the proof is in the 11-0 final score.
Game Seven of the 2012 NLCS had a similar outcome for the Redbirds: 9-0. A season that had been pretty good; perhaps a bit inconsistent, but at least good enough to grab that new second Wild Card the Commissioner was kind enough to add; suddenly ended in sloppy and fundamentally unsound baseball; a sad way to end an exciting season.
Going into the postseason, I felt this team was much better than most people gave them credit for; saber-metrically they were the third best team in baseball, trailing only Washington and the New York Yankees. Of course, the impressive "run differential" the Cardinals finished the regular season with doesn't automatically translate into wins and losses. But it does reflect a team with a lot of talent; especially from a hitting perspective.
In the end, the Cardinals added a fourth postseason epic failure - blowing a MLB-record three games to one lead - to the previous MLB-record-breaking list: 1968 World Series vs the Detroit Tigers; 1985 World Series vs the Kansas City Royals; and 1996 NLCS vs the Atlanta Braves. It's ironic that Tony LaRussa's first year in St Louis was in 1996; and Mike Matheny's first year as the Cardinals manager ended up in the same fashion as the legend he replaced. Oh well; that's pretty good company.
On a positive note, 2012 was the first season since the advent of divisional play that St Louis managed to return to the postseason after winning the World Series the previous year; of course, they only had two shots at it - in 1983 and 2007 - but really didn't come close. Only two other World Championship St Louis Cardinals teams made it to the Fall Classic the following season - 1942 and 1967. The franchise has never won back-to-back World Championships, although they came painfully close in 1968; but we already know that.
Although winning that 12th World Series (12 in '13?) will have to wait at least one more year, Mike Matheny's resilient bunch made a good run at it, giving Cardinals' fans another dream to hold onto for an extended postseason run. Still, I have to wonder what happened to the team that stormed into San Francisco, fresh off that wild and wonderful conquest of the Nationals, to take Game One so decisively?
The team that showed up for Games Six and Seven, simply didn't "show up". The words of David Freese still echo in my head: "We don't want to go back to San Francisco."
What should Freese have said instead of the truth? Maybe something like this:
"Sure, it's nice to get the win tonight, but we've got our work cut out for us to get that next one. The Giants are a great team, and you know they're not just going to roll over for us tomorrow. Look what they did to the Reds. Won three straight in Cincinnati after losing the first two at home! That shows a lot of character. You know, those guys are a lot like us; neither team gives up. That's why they're here instead of Cincinnati.
Sure, we'd like to come out on top tomorrow and end it right away; but if we worry about trying "not to lose" the game, we'll never win it. So, we'll come out and play hard and so will they; we'll see what happens. Hey, if we have to go back to San Francisco, so be it. I know I speak for every guy on this team when I say we'd gladly travel to China to finish this thing off. We don't care; we just play hard, every inning of every game. May the best team win. There's nothing more we want in this world than another shot at the World Series. Once you've got that first ring; that first trophy; you want to keep that winning tradition going - for the fans, for ownership, for Carlos Beltran. He's like the greatest postseason player ever. If he doesn't deserve a World Series ring, nobody does!"
Would that approach to the challenge of winning that fourth NLCS game changed anything? Probably not. But it wouldn't have hurt. All I know is, the Cardinals didn't play those games in San Francisco like they had any business being on the field. I'm sure the Giants could sense their vulnerability; they did what good teams do in situations like that: They took it to them, and punched their own ticket to the World Series.
"
San Francisco's stunning first round three-game sweep of the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ballpark just goes to show that simply because it's "never been done before", doesn't mean it will never happen. No team had ever lost the first two games at home in a divisional series, then go on to win the next three on the road; but it happened. The Reds had never lost three straight games at home all season; but it happened - in the postseason.
Meanwhile, as the giddy-but-weary Giants were patiently waiting at the airport to determine whether they would be going all the way home to take on the Cardinals in the second round of the playoffs, or make the quick jaunt to Washington DC to take on the Nationals; it seemed to be a slam-dunk that they would be heading to our nation's Capitol. Early scoring updates indicated a rout was in the making: 6-0 after three-innings, with the home team comfortably ahead of an apparently overwhelmed Redbirds team.
In postseason history, no team had ever trailed by five or more runs in an elimination game to go on and win the game. Suddenly, the lead was cut in half: 6-3. As the Redbirds clawed back to make the score 6-5 in the top of the eighth-inning, the Nats answered back with a run of their own: 7-5 heading into the ninth-inning.
As the stunned patrons at National's Park witnessed the unprecedented Redbirds rally, which saw the Wild Cards on their usual brink of elimination on several different occasions, new heroes emerged for St Louis - Daniel Descalso and Pete Kozma - who drove in the tying and winning runs, respectively.
Final score: Wild Cards 9 - Nats 7. Cardinal Nation was delirious; the rest of the nation either in awe or bitter dismay, depending on the locale and the opinion of adding that second Wild Card to begin with. The St Louis Wild Cards had already drawn the wrath of every Atlanta Braves fan on earth by having the audacity to beat another ("superior") Wild Card team with a better won-loss record; aided by a questionable call by an umpire, but more importantly, aided by Atlanta's own fielding miscues, led by retiring folk-hero Chipper Jones' throwing error on what should have been an easy double play. Hey, that's not the Wild Cards' fault; don't be mad at them!
The Cardinals had not only escaped that first elimination game in a hostile environment, facing a pitcher who was considered "unbeatable", they ultimately escaped what seemed to be certain elimination in that epic Game Five NLDS shocker over the Nationals.
With the adreniline flowing all the way to San Francisco, the Redbirds put up a quick six spot of their own in Game One of the NLCS against the Giants, and held on to win, 6-4. Clearly, the Giants were as undaunted by a six-run deficit as the Cardinals were; however, the St Louis bullpen did what the Washington bullpen failed to do: Preserve the lead.
After the Giants came back to easily win Game Two, it almost seemed a foregone conclusion this series would probably go six or seven games. The Cardinals headed home, at least somewhat satisfied with splitting the two games at AT&T Park; no easy feat. Yet, barring a sweep of the next three games at Busch Stadium, they would have to endure another trip to the City by the Bay.
However, after the Cardinals won the first two games at the friendly confines of Busch Stadium, to take a that commanding three games to one lead with one more to be played at home, it was obvious that winning Game Five became Priority Number One for St Louis. After the easy 8-3 win in Game Four, it seemed as though all the pundits were proclaiming the Wild Cards National League Champions. The post-game interviews with some of the players seemed a bit too giddy; almost as if it was a foregone conclusion the Giants would roll over and go home after losing Game Five. David Freese inadvertently gave a little sound bite which I'm sure was used to motivate the West division champions:
"San Francisco's a beautiful city, but we don't want to go back there. We want to win it here, tomorrow!"
Of course he wanted to wrap things up at home; Freese was just being honest. Naturally, this sentiment was probably shared by everyone on the team. Of course, the national media repeatedly mentioned this whenever possible; by the time of the revolting loss in Game Five, the Cards were being depicted as a team backpedaling now; no longer brash and confident; now reluctant and unsure of its abilities and unsure of what lies ahead in the hostile environment of AT&T Park.
By the time Game Seven rolled around, I tried to kid myself into believing the Cardinals could win at will; that they always play their best when the stakes are highest. I tried to kid myself into thinking the Giants could never win a Game Seven, simply because they never had in their long history; as if that mattered what would happen in 2012.
I had never been so unsettled prior to a Game Seven since the 1985 World Series. Game Six had been a disaster for Whitey Herzog's squad; jump-started by a bad call at first base by umpire Don Denkinger.
Cleary, St Louis didn't want to play that last game in Kansas City, and the proof is in the 11-0 final score.
Game Seven of the 2012 NLCS had a similar outcome for the Redbirds: 9-0. A season that had been pretty good; perhaps a bit inconsistent, but at least good enough to grab that new second Wild Card the Commissioner was kind enough to add; suddenly ended in sloppy and fundamentally unsound baseball; a sad way to end an exciting season.
Going into the postseason, I felt this team was much better than most people gave them credit for; saber-metrically they were the third best team in baseball, trailing only Washington and the New York Yankees. Of course, the impressive "run differential" the Cardinals finished the regular season with doesn't automatically translate into wins and losses. But it does reflect a team with a lot of talent; especially from a hitting perspective.
In the end, the Cardinals added a fourth postseason epic failure - blowing a MLB-record three games to one lead - to the previous MLB-record-breaking list: 1968 World Series vs the Detroit Tigers; 1985 World Series vs the Kansas City Royals; and 1996 NLCS vs the Atlanta Braves. It's ironic that Tony LaRussa's first year in St Louis was in 1996; and Mike Matheny's first year as the Cardinals manager ended up in the same fashion as the legend he replaced. Oh well; that's pretty good company.
On a positive note, 2012 was the first season since the advent of divisional play that St Louis managed to return to the postseason after winning the World Series the previous year; of course, they only had two shots at it - in 1983 and 2007 - but really didn't come close. Only two other World Championship St Louis Cardinals teams made it to the Fall Classic the following season - 1942 and 1967. The franchise has never won back-to-back World Championships, although they came painfully close in 1968; but we already know that.
Although winning that 12th World Series (12 in '13?) will have to wait at least one more year, Mike Matheny's resilient bunch made a good run at it, giving Cardinals' fans another dream to hold onto for an extended postseason run. Still, I have to wonder what happened to the team that stormed into San Francisco, fresh off that wild and wonderful conquest of the Nationals, to take Game One so decisively?
The team that showed up for Games Six and Seven, simply didn't "show up". The words of David Freese still echo in my head: "We don't want to go back to San Francisco."
What should Freese have said instead of the truth? Maybe something like this:
"Sure, it's nice to get the win tonight, but we've got our work cut out for us to get that next one. The Giants are a great team, and you know they're not just going to roll over for us tomorrow. Look what they did to the Reds. Won three straight in Cincinnati after losing the first two at home! That shows a lot of character. You know, those guys are a lot like us; neither team gives up. That's why they're here instead of Cincinnati.
Sure, we'd like to come out on top tomorrow and end it right away; but if we worry about trying "not to lose" the game, we'll never win it. So, we'll come out and play hard and so will they; we'll see what happens. Hey, if we have to go back to San Francisco, so be it. I know I speak for every guy on this team when I say we'd gladly travel to China to finish this thing off. We don't care; we just play hard, every inning of every game. May the best team win. There's nothing more we want in this world than another shot at the World Series. Once you've got that first ring; that first trophy; you want to keep that winning tradition going - for the fans, for ownership, for Carlos Beltran. He's like the greatest postseason player ever. If he doesn't deserve a World Series ring, nobody does!"
Would that approach to the challenge of winning that fourth NLCS game changed anything? Probably not. But it wouldn't have hurt. All I know is, the Cardinals didn't play those games in San Francisco like they had any business being on the field. I'm sure the Giants could sense their vulnerability; they did what good teams do in situations like that: They took it to them, and punched their own ticket to the World Series.
"
Monday, October 15, 2012
"Wild (St Louis) Cards" Getting Some Respect
When the St Louis Cardinals secured that second Wild Card spot in the National League, most baseball "experts" gave them little chance to last more than one game into the postseason. After all, they had to battle the Atlanta Braves on their home turf with their sensational young ace on the mound - Kris Medlen - who seemed to be more invincible than Whitey Ford or Carl Hubbell. Of course, those two Hall of Fame hurlers managed to start a major league record 22 games in a row in which their team secured victory.
Medlen broke that record after his final start of the regular season; it was a foregone conclusion the Braves would win for the twenty-fourth consecutive time with Medlen starting that critical Wild Card game for them. Of course, that didn't happen. The bad news for the Braves: Their postseason journey ended abruptly. The good news: Postseason games don't affect Medlen's official MLB record, which still stands at 23 straight Atlanta wins when he started the game; small consolation, I know; but that's life.
Critics of the new Wild Card format opine that the teams should play at least a three-game set to determine which one truly deserves to advance into the postseason. Some of the most vocal critics were players for the Atlanta Braves - most notably, the retiring Chipper Jones. Ironically, it was his throwing error, on an easy double play ball, which helped pave the way to a fairly easy (albeit controversial) Cardinal win.
With Atlanta's shocking infield-fly-rule-defeat has come an outpouring of negative sentiment directed towards the Cardinals for having the audacity to advance in the playoffs; after all, they only won 88 games. The mighty Braves won 94 games! "That's not fair!"
Please, get over it.
With St Louis advancing to the NLDS, their opponents - the NL East champion Washington Nationals - were expected to restore order in the best of five showdown with the Wild Cards. After all, the Nats had led all of major league baseball with 98 wins; ten games more than the upstart Redbirds. The script seemed to be going as planned when Washington took Game One, with a come-from-behind 3-2 win over the Cardinals at Busch Stadium.
That frustrating defeat seemed to wake the Wild Cards out of their funk, as they scored 20 runs over the next two games to forge ahead in the series, two games to one. But, whatever momentum the Cardinals had seemed to disappear in Game Four's agonizing defeat to the Nats by a 2-1 score; featuring Jayson Werth's dramatic walk-off home run on the 12th pitch he saw from Lance Lynn.
Game Five began ominously for St Louis when starting pitcher Adam Wainwright was roughed up for six runs in less than three innings. About that time, a gleeful Chipper Jones, who recently got hooked on Twitter (@RealCJ10) tweeted "Ball Game!"
Not quite, Chipper. You should know better than that. The rest of Game Five is glorious Wild Cards' history, featuring a relentless comeback that had St Louis down to their last strike on two different occasions in the 9th-inning, still trailing by a couple of runs. With Carlos Beltran perched on third base with two outs in the ninth, the Wild Cards had a 3.5% chance of winning the game. Yet, they did.
Naturally, this was a revolting development for those smug-now-stunned Nationals fans who were expecting to party on Friday night; not attend a franchise wake. Although most of the blame went to nearly everybody in the Nationals organization, many fans joined the growing legion of Cardinal-haters, simply because it seemed like the right thing to do.
Now, the Wild Cards are in the NLCS, facing a worthy opponent - the San Francisco Giants - who made postseason history, themselves, by sweeping the final three games of their NLDS against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ballpark. Of course, it was the first time all season the Reds managed to lose three games in a row at their own ballpark. Postseason pressure can do that to a team.
Postseason momentum was still with the Wild Cards last night, as they beat the Giants in Game One of the NLCS at AT&T Park in San Francisco. Home field advantage, anyone? Later this evening, Chris Carpenter will try to make it two in a row over the Giants, before the two teams head to St Louis for the next three games (if necessary). ***Update: Giants tie Series 1-1 with 7-1 win over Cards.
Those of us who are into saber-metrics know there is a more accurate measurement of a team's relative strength than simply checking their won-loss record. The Pythagorean Winning Percentage is based on a team's run differential. The higher the differential, the stronger the team. It's really that simple. Of the ten teams that got into the postseason, here's how they all stack up, saber-metrically:
TEAM PYTHAGOREAN W-L (RUN DIFFERENTIAL) ACTUAL W-L
Washington 96-66 +137 98-64
NYY 95-67 +136 95-67
St Louis 93-69 +117 88-74
Atlanta 92-70 +100 94-68
Oakland 92-70 +99 94-68
Cincinnati 91-71 +81 97-65
Texas 91-71 +80 93-69
San Francisco 88-74 +69 94-68
Detroit 87-75 +56 88-74
Baltimore 82-80 +7 93-69
From a relative strength standpoint, the Cardinals were the third best team in major league baseball. Strangely enough, they're better than their division rivals - the NL Central champion Cincinnati Reds. Hey, they're also better than the Atlanta Braves, Chipper!
For all those naysayers who are still indignant about the St Louis Wild Cards' early success in the postseason; I say, it shouldn't be a big surprise. They may even go on to win the World Series, again. Back-to-back World Championships for the St Louis Cardinals? From Wild Card to World Series champion two years in a row? I'd bet Atlanta would love that.
Maybe Chipper would post a nice tweet about it?
Medlen broke that record after his final start of the regular season; it was a foregone conclusion the Braves would win for the twenty-fourth consecutive time with Medlen starting that critical Wild Card game for them. Of course, that didn't happen. The bad news for the Braves: Their postseason journey ended abruptly. The good news: Postseason games don't affect Medlen's official MLB record, which still stands at 23 straight Atlanta wins when he started the game; small consolation, I know; but that's life.
Critics of the new Wild Card format opine that the teams should play at least a three-game set to determine which one truly deserves to advance into the postseason. Some of the most vocal critics were players for the Atlanta Braves - most notably, the retiring Chipper Jones. Ironically, it was his throwing error, on an easy double play ball, which helped pave the way to a fairly easy (albeit controversial) Cardinal win.
With Atlanta's shocking infield-fly-rule-defeat has come an outpouring of negative sentiment directed towards the Cardinals for having the audacity to advance in the playoffs; after all, they only won 88 games. The mighty Braves won 94 games! "That's not fair!"
Please, get over it.
With St Louis advancing to the NLDS, their opponents - the NL East champion Washington Nationals - were expected to restore order in the best of five showdown with the Wild Cards. After all, the Nats had led all of major league baseball with 98 wins; ten games more than the upstart Redbirds. The script seemed to be going as planned when Washington took Game One, with a come-from-behind 3-2 win over the Cardinals at Busch Stadium.
That frustrating defeat seemed to wake the Wild Cards out of their funk, as they scored 20 runs over the next two games to forge ahead in the series, two games to one. But, whatever momentum the Cardinals had seemed to disappear in Game Four's agonizing defeat to the Nats by a 2-1 score; featuring Jayson Werth's dramatic walk-off home run on the 12th pitch he saw from Lance Lynn.
Game Five began ominously for St Louis when starting pitcher Adam Wainwright was roughed up for six runs in less than three innings. About that time, a gleeful Chipper Jones, who recently got hooked on Twitter (@RealCJ10) tweeted "Ball Game!"
Not quite, Chipper. You should know better than that. The rest of Game Five is glorious Wild Cards' history, featuring a relentless comeback that had St Louis down to their last strike on two different occasions in the 9th-inning, still trailing by a couple of runs. With Carlos Beltran perched on third base with two outs in the ninth, the Wild Cards had a 3.5% chance of winning the game. Yet, they did.
Naturally, this was a revolting development for those smug-now-stunned Nationals fans who were expecting to party on Friday night; not attend a franchise wake. Although most of the blame went to nearly everybody in the Nationals organization, many fans joined the growing legion of Cardinal-haters, simply because it seemed like the right thing to do.
Now, the Wild Cards are in the NLCS, facing a worthy opponent - the San Francisco Giants - who made postseason history, themselves, by sweeping the final three games of their NLDS against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ballpark. Of course, it was the first time all season the Reds managed to lose three games in a row at their own ballpark. Postseason pressure can do that to a team.
Postseason momentum was still with the Wild Cards last night, as they beat the Giants in Game One of the NLCS at AT&T Park in San Francisco. Home field advantage, anyone? Later this evening, Chris Carpenter will try to make it two in a row over the Giants, before the two teams head to St Louis for the next three games (if necessary). ***Update: Giants tie Series 1-1 with 7-1 win over Cards.
Those of us who are into saber-metrics know there is a more accurate measurement of a team's relative strength than simply checking their won-loss record. The Pythagorean Winning Percentage is based on a team's run differential. The higher the differential, the stronger the team. It's really that simple. Of the ten teams that got into the postseason, here's how they all stack up, saber-metrically:
TEAM PYTHAGOREAN W-L (RUN DIFFERENTIAL) ACTUAL W-L
Washington 96-66 +137 98-64
NYY 95-67 +136 95-67
St Louis 93-69 +117 88-74
Atlanta 92-70 +100 94-68
Oakland 92-70 +99 94-68
Cincinnati 91-71 +81 97-65
Texas 91-71 +80 93-69
San Francisco 88-74 +69 94-68
Detroit 87-75 +56 88-74
Baltimore 82-80 +7 93-69
From a relative strength standpoint, the Cardinals were the third best team in major league baseball. Strangely enough, they're better than their division rivals - the NL Central champion Cincinnati Reds. Hey, they're also better than the Atlanta Braves, Chipper!
For all those naysayers who are still indignant about the St Louis Wild Cards' early success in the postseason; I say, it shouldn't be a big surprise. They may even go on to win the World Series, again. Back-to-back World Championships for the St Louis Cardinals? From Wild Card to World Series champion two years in a row? I'd bet Atlanta would love that.
Maybe Chipper would post a nice tweet about it?
Thursday, October 4, 2012
Wild Cards Facing Long Odds Again
Here we go again. Last year, it took a miraculous comeback by the St Louis Cardinals, along with an epic collapse by the Atlanta Braves, to give the Wild Card Redbirds a shot at postseason glory. Of course, they capitalized on that opportunity; winning the franchise's eleventh World Championship in a classic seven game showdown with the shell-shocked Texas Rangers.
This year, the Cardinals were the National League's beneficiaries of the new Wild Card format, which allows an extra team from each league into the postseason mix. Ironically, the team they square off against on Friday are those same Atlanta Braves, in a one-game winner-moves-on-loser-goes-home showdown in Atlanta. To say the odds are stacked against the Cardinals is an understatement. Here's why:
The Cardinals are the only team in the postseason with a losing record on the road.
Pitching for the Atlanta Braves will be Kris Medlen who recently established a new major league record when the Braves won for the twenty-third consecutive time in a game started by Medlen. The previous record of 22 straight wins by a team was shared by Whitey Ford (New York Yankees) and Carl Hubbell (New York Giants).
Pitching for St Louis will be Kyle Lohse, who pitched well during the regular season, but has never pitched well in postseason play.
The Cardinals lost five of six games vs the Braves in 2012.
Sentimental Braves' favorite Chipper Jones is retiring at the conclusion of this season. This will surely have the fans riled up; not to mention his teammates.
As if that weren't enough, approximately 45,000 giant red tomahawks are being doled out to the Atlanta faithful to be used at the appropriate tomahawk chopping time during the game. That can be quite a distraction; really, for both teams. What happens if that stupid stunt backfires and the Redbirds start tomahawking balls out of Turner Field instead? Can you imagine seeing 45,000 tomahawks strewn over the entire playing field by disgruntled fans when the score is 12 - 2 in the bottom of the eighth-inning; and those twelve runs don't belong to the Bravos? Yikes!
It should be quite an interesting game, to say the least. Whether it's the only postseason game in the Cards for St Louis remains to be seen. Certainly, the Cardinals are a resilient bunch. They seem to thrive on adversity; many fans in other cities (particularly Cincinnati and Milwaukee) absolutely despise them, for reasons that I don't quite understand. Maybe it has something to do with their success; after all, they're the defending World Champions (for the eleventh time).
Yet here they are, having the audacity to return to the postseason when they should be fat and happy, resting on their laurels. Not this time; in their entire history, the Cardinals had only returned to the postseason on two other occasions after winning a World Series the previous season (1943 and 1968). They've never won back-to-back World Championships. Very few experts are giving them much of a chance to do it again this year; especially as a lowly Wild Card team playing the elimination game on the road against a team that never loses when their good luck charm is on the mound.
Stranger things have happened. I wonder how many experts picked the Oakland Athletics to dethrone the once mighty-now-shell-shocked Texas Rangers to win the AL West; on the last day of the season, no less? How many experts picked the Baltimore Orioles to make it to the postseason as well; nearly dethroning the mighty New York Yankees from their top spot in the AL East?
Yes, the Wild Cards are facing long odds again; I just wouldn't bet against them.
This year, the Cardinals were the National League's beneficiaries of the new Wild Card format, which allows an extra team from each league into the postseason mix. Ironically, the team they square off against on Friday are those same Atlanta Braves, in a one-game winner-moves-on-loser-goes-home showdown in Atlanta. To say the odds are stacked against the Cardinals is an understatement. Here's why:
The Cardinals are the only team in the postseason with a losing record on the road.
Pitching for the Atlanta Braves will be Kris Medlen who recently established a new major league record when the Braves won for the twenty-third consecutive time in a game started by Medlen. The previous record of 22 straight wins by a team was shared by Whitey Ford (New York Yankees) and Carl Hubbell (New York Giants).
Pitching for St Louis will be Kyle Lohse, who pitched well during the regular season, but has never pitched well in postseason play.
The Cardinals lost five of six games vs the Braves in 2012.
Sentimental Braves' favorite Chipper Jones is retiring at the conclusion of this season. This will surely have the fans riled up; not to mention his teammates.
As if that weren't enough, approximately 45,000 giant red tomahawks are being doled out to the Atlanta faithful to be used at the appropriate tomahawk chopping time during the game. That can be quite a distraction; really, for both teams. What happens if that stupid stunt backfires and the Redbirds start tomahawking balls out of Turner Field instead? Can you imagine seeing 45,000 tomahawks strewn over the entire playing field by disgruntled fans when the score is 12 - 2 in the bottom of the eighth-inning; and those twelve runs don't belong to the Bravos? Yikes!
It should be quite an interesting game, to say the least. Whether it's the only postseason game in the Cards for St Louis remains to be seen. Certainly, the Cardinals are a resilient bunch. They seem to thrive on adversity; many fans in other cities (particularly Cincinnati and Milwaukee) absolutely despise them, for reasons that I don't quite understand. Maybe it has something to do with their success; after all, they're the defending World Champions (for the eleventh time).
Yet here they are, having the audacity to return to the postseason when they should be fat and happy, resting on their laurels. Not this time; in their entire history, the Cardinals had only returned to the postseason on two other occasions after winning a World Series the previous season (1943 and 1968). They've never won back-to-back World Championships. Very few experts are giving them much of a chance to do it again this year; especially as a lowly Wild Card team playing the elimination game on the road against a team that never loses when their good luck charm is on the mound.
Stranger things have happened. I wonder how many experts picked the Oakland Athletics to dethrone the once mighty-now-shell-shocked Texas Rangers to win the AL West; on the last day of the season, no less? How many experts picked the Baltimore Orioles to make it to the postseason as well; nearly dethroning the mighty New York Yankees from their top spot in the AL East?
Yes, the Wild Cards are facing long odds again; I just wouldn't bet against them.
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