Mike Shannon Did It - Why Not Hanley & Miguel?

Third base - The Hot Corner - has been a hot topic during the off season.  While World Series MVP David Freese - a third baseman by trade - has been making the national scene - from Leno to Ellen to some sort of Country Music Awards shin-dig; the Hot Stove League has been filled with heated Hot Corner debate, on a couple of fronts.

It all started when the "new-look" Miami Marlins signed free-agent shortstop Jose Reyes in December to supplant incumbent-former-All-Star shortstop Hanley Ramirez - a young man with a good track record for pouting; who seemed nonplussed with the idea of vacating the safety and security of his All-Star position for one that is dangerous and - worse yet - potentially humiliating.

More recently, Detroit Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera is gladly accepting the challenge of moving over to third base to make room for his new teammate, former Milwaukee Brewers All-Star slugger Prince Fielder.  Although Cabrera has played two full seasons at third base while a relatively lean member of the pre-Miami-Florida Marlins (2006-'07), it remains to be seen how the current, larger-than-life version of Cabrera will fare.  While the extra "padding" he's acquired over the past several years may protect his internal organs from trauma in case his glove isn't quick enough; the big question:  Will he be able to successfully execute enough fielding opportunities to avoid becoming a defensive liability?

For Hanley Ramirez, perhaps his biggest challenge will be dealing with the inevitable miscues at his new position without going ballistic.  He's a remarkable athlete who should be able play third base reasonably well once he adjusts to its nuances; however, if he goes off the deep end before he has a chance to grow into the position, he may be better off finding another team to call home - one that needs a decent shortstop who specializes in hitting.

While Cabrera and Ramirez deal with their new challenges in 2012, it brought to mind a similar transition which happened forty-five seasons ago, on a team that was surprisingly poised for a World Championship - the '67 St Louis Cardinals.

Coming off a dismal sixth place finish in 1966 (83-79), the Cardinals created a minor stir in the baseball world on December 8, 1966 when they traded third baseman Charlie Smith to the New York Yankees for their unpopular and disgruntled right fielder, Roger Maris.  Maris, who was never comfortable in the glare of the New York spotlight, welcomed the change of venue as his career was winding down.  Adding Maris to the roster created a temporary log-jam in right field, which was quickly addressed when the Cardinal hierarchy decided to move incumbent right fielder, Mike Shannon to third base; filling the void created with Smith's departure.

Shannon, with no previous major league experience at any infield position - let alone third base - eagerly accepted the new challenge.  His approach to learning the new position was what he referred to as "The Army Way" - a simple and pragmatic way to play defense.  He described the process in the following manner:

*Get in front of ball
*Knock it down
*Pick it up
*Throw it to first base

Mike Shannon may have been the worst defensive third baseman in the National League in 1967, but he survived.  Without getting overly bogged down with saber-metrics, Shannon's fielding deficiencies allowed an extra dozen or so runs to score over the course of the season than "average".  Fortunately, nobody was really keeping track of that kind of stuff back then (his "range" was also below average), so Shannon's first season at third base was relatively stress-free.  By season's end, his fielding percentage of .919 (.950 was league average) was hardly noticed by any Redbirds fan, as St Louis not only won the pennant, they proceeded to knock off the Boston Red Sox in a classic Seven Game World Series.

It wasn't pretty, but Shannon's mission had been accomplished.  To his credit, his defensive skills at the hot corner improved dramatically the following season (only slightly below average), as the Cards cruised to their second straight pennant; this time losing to Detroit in another classic Seven Game Fall Classic.

For nervous fans of the Tigers and Marlins; relax.  Your new third basemen should be able to get the job done without killing the team.  After all, if Mike Shannon could do it; why not Hanley and Miguel?





     

Deep Thoughts - Bob Costas Spouts Off

It's been two weeks since Ryan Braun won his appeal, overturning major league baseball's plan to suspend the reigning National League MVP for the first fifty games of the 2012 season, after testing (very) positive in that controversial urine sample, early last October.  In case you weren't aware of this precedent-setting successful appeal, allow me to summarize what went down:

*Braun's sample was tainted since it sat in a cool, dry place for 44 unsupervised hours before being shipped off to the lab.  

*The lab didn't know it was tainted, since all the tamper resistant seals had not been tampered with during that unsupervised 44 hour hiatus.

*The lab discovered the tainted sample was loaded with synthetic testosterone.

*Believing the tainted sample to be untainted, Braun was falsely accused by major league baseball of ingesting some type of banned, pharmaceutical product to produce all that synthetic testosterone.

*Some unknown blabbermouth leaked the news of the initial findings by the lab of the tainted sample to ESPN, who promptly spread the foreboding news to the rest of the world.

*Prior to the ESPN leak, Braun won the NL MVP Award, and appeared to be happy and synthetic testosterone-free during his congratulatory interviews with the media.  My favorite - MLB Network's ebullient analyst, Harold Reynolds' exchange with Braunie:  "Hey man, you look clean!"  "Thanks, HR!  Coming from you that means something; if it came from Ripken (Billy), not so much."  Guffaws!

*When Braun formally accepted his Award at the subsequent MLB shin-dig, he nervously dished out an awkwardly tongue-tied and embarrassing speech, mentioning key words like "challenge" and "opportunity" way too many times to make any sense.  Only his nervous laughter while stammering through the ordeal broke the dead silence among the wary gathering.

*During the long, drawn-out appeal process, Braun's crack team of legal experts proved to the arbitration panel that the sample was tainted; or at least possibly tainted (reasonable doubt!) by sitting around some guy's cool, dry basement for 44 unsupervised hours before being shipped off to the lab.

*A relieved, but indignantly bitter Ryan Braun held a fifteen minute press conference at his team's training facility in Peoria, AZ, citing the "fatally flawed" process which created the tainted sample that turned him into the falsely accused "victim".  Not wanting to leave well enough alone, Braun rambled on about the questionable integrity and competency of the guy who collected the sample that fateful late Saturday afternoon in early October.  Apparently, this collector has only done about 600 of these procedures without incident; but who's counting?

In the aftermath of this landmark decision, there was a flurry of media discussion and opinion - some "pro", and some "con" - along with the much-expected response from baseball fans everywhere - mostly "con" outside of greater Milwaukee.  There may be some fans of the Milwaukee Brewers who think the panel goofed when they upheld Braun's appeal, but I haven't seen evidence of that, anywhere; from Twitter to Facebook and all points in between; the consensus in Brewer Nation:  "He's innocent!"  According to these unbiased character witnesses, anyone who thinks otherwise is either an idiot or a "hater" (I hate that stupid expression).

One thing is certain.  Braun will be in the Brewers lineup now, for a possible full 162-game ride.  Also, the  initial widespread public outrage will gradually fade into apathetic acceptance (it may already have happened); by the All-Star break, it will be as far off the radar screen as the OJ trial.

While this story was still the hot topic on the national scene a couple of weeks ago, I happened to catch a brief telephone interview one of the hosts at the MLB Network was doing with long-time baseball purist and savant, Bob Costas.  Old Bob is a highly respected source of wisdom, particularly within the realm of major league baseball.  His commentary on a wide variety of topics - from Hall of Fame balloting to performance enhancing drug issues - is usually quite interesting; certainly, very well-prepared and at times, profound.

Costas was asked to expound upon Braun's overly zealous attempt to deny any wrongdoing; instead, pointing the finger at major league baseball's drug testing program, from top to bottom; finishing the tirade off with  an assault on the guy who collected the sample; implying a wide variety of wrongdoings - from general incompetence to haphazard procedural methods to the possibility of deliberate sabotage.  It seemed to be way over the top; borderline vindictive and somewhat paranoid; right Bob?

Nope.  Bob didn't see it that way; his response was something to the effect:  "Braun seemed more convincing in his defense than anyone else I can recall accused of using performance enhancing drugs.  Overall, he presented his case well; that there's enough reasonable doubt in the way things were handled to justify the arbitrator's decision."  Really?

I couldn't help but recall the harsh language Costas used when discussing the allegations against Barry Bonds:  "For anyone to think Bonds did not use performance enhancing drugs when he was breaking all those home run records and winning all those MVP Awards; they would have to be deranged!"  Okay; I tend to agree.

I suppose I was expecting him to say, with regard to the Ryan Braun case:  "For anyone to think synthetic testosterone mysteriously manifested itself in a non-tampered urine sample; even after a so-called 44 hour unsupervised delay in getting it to the lab for analysis; they would have to be deranged!"

I couldn't help but think back to early January, when Costas offered his opinion on the first-ballot Hall of Fame credentials for Houston Astros retired slugger, Jeff Bagwell.  Bob very solemnly and carefully crafted his pious response, which would be heard by millions of people throughout the world of baseball;  including many Hall of Fame voters who possibly value his perspective:

"You have to take into consideration the fact that Bagwell played the bulk of his career in the Steroids Era; so there's some doubt about the authenticity of his career totals.  I would rather err on the side of being overly careful, than letting a player in who may have used performance enhancing drugs."

Obviously, there were enough actual Hall of Fame voters sharing that same sentiment to keep Bagwell's inevitable Cooperstown induction on hold.  Suspicions will automatically arise when any power hitter's career numbers are scrutinized for Cooperstown consideration; simply based on their physical appearance; in other words, they have strong arms?  In Bagwell's case, there is no evidence linking him to any use of performance enhancing drugs.  He never tested "positive" and was never named in any formal inquiry, unlike so many others who were caught red-handed.  From all accounts, Bags developed those big strong arms by pumping iron; not by pumping pharmaceuticals into his system.

So, now that Bob Costas has apparently supported the decision ruling in favor of Braun, does that mean he would consider giving Braun a vote for Hall of Fame induction many years from now; assuming his career numbers look something like Bagwell's?  Would that be suspicious or deranged?

The perplexing perspective of Bob Costas keeps getting more difficult to understand.  I don't think I'm alone in that boat, either.

Is Curt Schilling Hall of Fame Material?

A couple of notable players from baseball's Steroids Era - Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens - were at one time considered to be sure-fire-first-ballot Hall of Fame shoe-ins.  Next year, their body of work (no pun intended) will be scrutinized by Cooperstown's Hall of Fame voters for the first time, as 2013 marks their first year of eligibility.

Of course, we all know there's no way Bonds nor Clemens stand a chance of sliding into Cooperstown any time soon; certainly not on that first ballot.  Despite their remarkable career achievements, Barry and Roger are perceived to be two surly Poster Children for Performance Enhancing Drugs.  In time, the voters will gradually parole the pair for their Crimes Against Baseball; after all, both performed at Hall of Fame standards for the bulk of their careers (no pun intended), without the juice.  Had their careers ended the day before they began their performance enhancing regimen, they would already be enshrined, and I wouldn't have used this segue to examine the Hall of Fame credentials for Curt Schilling - a former right-handed pitcher who toiled for twenty major league seasons* (and has never been linked to performance enhancing drugs).

*Note:  Although Schilling spent the first three years of his major league career with the Baltimore Orioles (1988-90), he is still credited with playing for a "major league team" (technically).

Curt Schilling was actually drafted by the Boston Red Sox in the second round of the January, 1986 amateur draft.  After signing his first professional contract with those Bambino Cursed Bo-Sox on May 30, 1986, the young Schilling no doubt dreamed of joining a rotation featuring the aforementioned Roger Clemens; on a star-studded roster boasting other talented players such as Wade Boggs, Dwight Evans, Jim Rice, and Bill Buckner (the pre-World Series goat version).

Somehow, Schilling's dream job in Boston took a detour; by the time the hard throwing right-hander was given his shot in The Show late in the '88 season - it was with the hapless Orioles, working out of their hapless bullpen.  Schilling's career seemed destined only for obscurity; by the time he was dealt to the Houston Astros after the 1990 season, Schilling had a lifetime 1-6 record, with three saves (only 600 behind Mariano Rivera's current total).  He spent the entire '91 season working out of Houston's bullpen, notching eight saves in 56 appearances, with a so-so 3.81 ERA.

Schilling's next stop was to the Philadelphia Phillies in 1992, where he was gradually worked into the starting rotation, and flourished, on a team that floundered all season long; winning 14 games with an impressive 2.35 ERA and NL best 0.990 WHIP, Schilling was now a rising star.

The following season - 1993 - the Phillies shocked the baseball world by rising to the top of the National League, en route to their first World Series engagement in a decade; Schilling pitched well in one World Series outing vs the defending champion Toronto Blue Jays, and not so well in the other, posting a 1-1 record with a 3.52 ERA; Philly fell to Toronto in six games, highlighted by Joe Carter's dramatic 9th-inning World Series-winning home run off Mitch "Wild Thing" Williams in Game Six.  Philadelphia would have to wait until 2008 to make it all the way back to the Fall Classic; beating Tampa Bay's Rays in convincing fashion - four games to one.  Of course, Toronto has long been trying to figure out a way to once again get past the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays; oh my; in its quest to grab Title Number Three.

Meanwhile, Curt Schilling would spend the rest of the '90s pitching well enough, when healthy; but was frequently frustrated by arm troubles, and even more frustrated by his team's inability to reach the post season again.  The Atlanta Braves - the National League's Team of the Nineties - virtually owned the East; reaching the post season in Philadelphia simply wasn't going to happen, so Schilling lobbied for a change of venue, which was granted mid-way through the 2000 season.  Next stop:  The Arizona Diamondbacks.

Schilling's move to the Arizona desert was a fortuitous one; teaming up with the incredible Randy Johnson in 2001 to form one of the most imposing "one-two" pitching tandems in baseball history, the D-Backs captured their first National League pennant, then prevailed over the vaunted New York Yankees in a truly classic Seven Game World Series, as Johnson and Schilling were fittingly named co-MVPs.  Curt pitched brilliantly for Arizona in his three World Series starts (1.69 ERA), winning once and getting a no-decision twice.

Schilling's regular season work in '01 was superb, finishing second in the NL Cy Young Award voting to - who else? - Randy Johnson.  While Johnson's ERA was roughly half a run lower than Schilling's that season, Curt actually led the league in wins (22), games started (35), complete games (6), and innings pitched (256.2).  On top of all that, Schilling's strikeout to walk ratio (7.51) was the best in baseball; a feat  he would accomplish in four consecutive seasons.

While his regular season accomplishments are noteworthy, they may fall just a bit short in the voter's eyes when it comes to Cooperstown consideration:

216 wins - 146 losses (.597 winning percentage)
3.46 ERA
3116 strikeouts
128 ERA+
1.137 WHIP

Major League Baseball Network analyst Mitch Williams - a former teammate of Schilling's - contends that Schilling's 216 regular season wins during his 20-year big league career doesn't cut the mustard:  "He only averaged about 10 wins per season!"  According to the "Wild Thing", a player's post season accomplishments are meaningless; the only "true measurement" of a player's value is derived from regular season play:  "It's not the Hall of Post Season Fame", is Williams' perplexing concluding argument in his case against Curt Schilling's Cooperstown credentials.

It should be noted that a line drive once smacked off the "Wild Thing's" skull during one of his (unsuccessful) relief appearances, back in the day.  The only reason I know this is because Mitch has proudly repeated this story numerous times on the air, claiming no long-lasting ill-effects from the head whacking.  I'm not so sure about that; better get that noggin x-ray-ed again, Mitch; I think they missed something that first time around, old bean.

Perhaps a player's post season accomplishments have no "Hall of Fame" value when they don't help his team win post season games (for example, Game Six of the '93 World Series).  However, when a player performs at astounding levels during the post season, helping his team win not one, but three World Championships in seven years; that should count for something.  Bonus points should be awarded for helping one of his teams break an 86-year old curse one year, then helping them win the whole she-bang three short years later.

In essence, playing a huge role in a team's successful World Championship run is what matters the most. Repeating that magic on three separate occasions is the stuff of legends.  Curt Schilling was at his best when the games mattered the most - on baseball's grandest stage.  He was on the winning side in three out of four World Series showdowns.  Without his contributions, it is highly unlikely any of those teams would have even made it into the post season; let alone win it all.

In case anyone has forgotten, here's how Curt Schilling performed during his post season career:

11 wins - 2 losses (.846 winning percentage)
2.23 ERA
0.968 WHIP

In seven World Series starts, Schilling was 4-1 with a 2.06 ERA and 0.896 WHIP.

Curt Schilling belongs in the Hall of Fame.  Anyone who thinks otherwise, should have their head examined.

Will Extra Wild Card Restore Order?

Since major league baseball added the "wild card" to the post season mix in 1995, ten different "wild card" teams have advanced to the World Series in those seventeen seasons; five of them managed to capture the World Championship:  The '97 Florida Marlins, the 2002 California/LA/Anaheim Angels, the 2003 Marlins, the 2004 Boston Red Sox, and the 2011 St Louis Cardinals.

For the Cardinals, last year's World Championship was the eleventh in franchise history, and their first as a "wild card" entrant; likewise, the 2004 Red Sox not only won their first World Series as a "wild card" entrant, their stunning ALCS comeback against the New York Yankees - winning four straight games after trailing 3 games to none - propelled them to an easy four game sweep of the Cardinals in the World Series; ending the historic Curse of the Bambino in the process.

For the Marlins, the only time they've ever won the World Series came in those two "wild card" seasons; likewise, the Halos have only appeared in the Fall Classic that one "wild card" season, and with a little help from the Rally Monkey, captured their one and only championship since the franchise came into existence over 50 years ago (1961).

Clearly, "wild card" teams have had little trouble prevailing over higher seeded teams in advancing to the World Series; and thanks to the luck of the draw, four out of the five "wild card" World Series champions had the all-important home-field advantage when playing for all the marbles.  The only "wild card" team to overcome home-field "disadvantage" were those pesky 2003 Marlins, who handled the seemingly invincible Yankees in six games.  

Strangely enough, the Yankees have had their share of "wild card" trouble over the years; aside from that upset at the hands of those '03 Marlins, the Bronx Bombers have been bounced from the post season by the 2002 Angels, those '04 Red Sox, and the '06 "wild card" Detroit Tigers.  Of course, the Yankees were the original American League "wild card" edition back in '95, but they failed to get past an inspired Seattle Mariners team in a truly classic five game ALDS; capped off by Edgar Martinez' clutch two-run double which plated a jubilant Ken Griffey, Jr with the deciding run.

Many baseball purists despise the entire concept of allowing "wild card" teams into the post season to begin with.  It's "unfair", they contend, to give marginally talented teams an opportunity to eliminate superior teams in a short, five game series; or even a slightly longer, seven game series.  To make matters worse for these purists is the shocking reality that 50% of those lucky, talent-less "wild cards" have had the audacity to win the World Series (through 2011)!

For those wishing to have order restored in the world of post season baseball, there is good news:  Each league will add one more "wild card" into the mix.  Theoretically, ten teams will now enter the post season with a chance to win the World Series.  However, one of those "wild card" teams will have their hopes dashed in one fell swoop - a one game playoff between the "wild cards" quickly brings the total of World Series hopefuls back down to eight.  However, the surviving "wild cards" will be facing much longer odds in their attempt to continue advancing in the post season; after all, that one game victory over their fellow "wild cards" means a less favorable pitching rotation when the league division series begins.  It won't be impossible for "wild card" teams to prosper in the post season; but it will be extremely difficult.  It could be a long, long time before we see a repeat of what the St Louis Cardinals pulled off last year.

For those wishing to see the odds stacked back in favor of teams that win division titles, this expanded playoff picture should do the trick.  Only time will tell, but it seems as though the extra "wild cards" should restore order in major league baseball.

Braun's "Truth Prevailed" Speech is "Fatally Flawed"

Let's face it.  Ryan Braun avoided the fifty game penalty he deserved for violating MLB's drug policy, on a technicality.  As we all know, in legal situations, the technicalities usually determine the outcome of the case. Of course, the technicality that Braun's skillful attorneys exploited had absolutely nothing to do with the issue at hand - the indisputable fact that he failed the drug test.  Period.

During Braun's emotional press conference on Friday, the reigning NL MVP claimed to be "the victim of a process that was fatally flawed", making a big deal about the "timeliness" in getting his urine sample shipped off to the lab, while questioning the integrity of the guy who collected the sample.  We're supposed to believe this guy had something to do with that urine having all that synthetic testosterone in it?  Based on the fact that the sample arrived at the lab intact - with no evidence of tampering - we can rule out that conspiracy theory.

The irrefutable evidence which proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that Braun is guilty, involves the "type" of testosterone discovered in his urine sample:  SYNTHETIC - the kind that comes ONLY FROM PHARMACEUTICALS.  There is no other way, period; that's according to Dr Gary Walder, who is the World Anti-Doping Agency Chairman.  "Synthetic testosterone is not made in the human body", Walder confirmed on ESPN's "Outside the Lines".

Okay, we know beyond a shadow of doubt that Ryan Braun did indeed add a banned pharmaceutical to his breakfast of champions, prior to his October 1, 2011 drug test.  I have little doubt that this was his first violation, based on his consistent performance during his stellar five-year career.  Plus, he's passed numerous drug tests prior to this one.

What would motivate Braun to cheat this time around?  Simple.  He wanted to win a World Series, and he figured his best shot - maybe his only shot - would be to do it while Prince Fielder was still on the team.  Elementary, my dear Watson.

Aside from having all that testosterone in his system, there is compelling evidence that Braun's performance was indeed enhanced during the first round of the playoffs.  Here are the MVP's offensive stats in the 5 game 2011 NLDS:

BA - .500 (9 hits in 18 AB) - including 4 doubles and 1 home run
OBP - .571
SLG - .889
5 runs scored, 4 runs driven in, 1 stolen base, 3 bases on balls

162 GAME PROJECTION:

291 HITS, 32 HOME RUNS, 130 DOUBLES, 162 RUNS, 130 RBIs, 32 STOLEN BASES,  96 BB

As the pharmaceuticals began wearing off, Braun's offensive production returned to more "normal" levels in the 6 game 2011 NLCS, hitting .333, with a .385 OBP, and .583 SLG.  Those are still great numbers, but clearly, Superman left the building without that coveted World Series ring.

While Braun plays the part of "victim" in this ordeal, he left us with this endearing sound bite:  "At the end of the day, the truth prevailed."

The truth is, Braun beat the system on a technicality.  That's the absolute truth, and he knows it.

Braun Case Left With One Big Unanswered Question

Ryan Braun may have won his appeal, thanks to a brain-dead arbitration panel (well, only two out of the three panelists are brain-dead) who took "technicalities" to a whole new level of absurdity.  Maybe I'm missing something, so let's review the events:

STEP 1:  Braun provides a urine sample on a Saturday.  The guy who collects the sample doesn't ship it out until the following Monday - 44 hours later.  There is no evidence that the sample was tampered with.

STEP 2:  The sample is tested and extremely high levels of testosterone are discovered.  Record breaking levels of testosterone.  Ridiculously high levels of testosterone.

QUESTION:  How did those high levels of testosterone get into that urine?  Here are the possibilities:

A) High levels of testosterone magically sprout up in urine after a 44 hour waiting period.

B) Braun used some form of a banned substance - a performance enhancing drug - and high levels of testosterone are noticeable characteristic in this banned substance.

So far, no scientific evidence linking high levels of testosterone to two-day old urine have been discovered. I shudder to think of what might happen after some urine sits around in one of those little cups for a month or longer, if "Scenario A" is true.

Ryan Braun got off the hook and will not have to miss the first fifty games of the season now.  That's great news for Milwaukee Brewers fans who are more than likely not concerned with the question that still plagues me:  How did the urine get so much testosterone in it?

Unless that question is answered to conclusively clear up Ryan Braun's good name, I'm not buying his innocence.  This case may be closed, as far as Braun being cleared to play the full 162 game schedule goes.

But it's not closed for me, or anyone else who wants to know the absolute truth in this matter.  It's far from closed.

Surprising Predictions for 2012

Baseball has a history of unpredictability.  Over the course of a 162 game schedule, anything can (and usually does) happen; injuries to key players can doom a team expected to play deep into the post season.  Last year's defending World Champion San Francisco Giants, for example, were knocked out of the box by the end of May when they lost catcher Buster Posey with a season-ending knee injury.  The fact that Posey got hurt was unfortunate and unpredictable; the fact that the Giants failed to reach the post season was not at all surprising, however.

On the other hand, when the St Louis Cardinals lost the ace of their pitching staff, Adam Wainwright, to season-ending Tommy John surgery before the 2011 season even began, the Redbirds were automatically counted out (by the "experts") for any realistic chance of post season play.  Winning the World Series seemed about as likely as winning the lottery.

The Philadelphia Phillies were considered the best team to come out of the National League, and with 102 regular season wins, they were indeed the class of the Senior Circuit.  However, we all know that anything can happen in the post season; including getting bounced after the first round.  Nobody expected the Phillies to lose that NLDS to the long-shot Cardinals.  Nobody.

And nobody expected the Boston Red Sox to fold up like a cheap tent last September, and not even reach the post season as the wild card.  They were widely considered to be the best team in the American League; the team most likely to beat Philadelphia in the World Series; or maybe Atlanta; or maybe San Francisco.

There were many other surprises in baseball last season.  Teams that looked good in the 2011 preseason (according to many "experts"), included such dismal failures as the Colorado Rockies, the San Diego Padres, the Cincinnati Reds, the Oakland A's, the Chicago White Sox, and the Minnesota Twins.  None of these teams even finished above .500, let alone competed for a division title.

Of course, there were pleasant surprises, too.  Aside from Kirk Gibson and his young team of over-achievers, nobody gave the Arizona Diamondbacks any chance of competing in the National League West last season; but, compete they did, easily winning the division title over defending World Series champion, San Francisco.

Even last year's runaway American League Central champion Detroit Tigers weren't expected to do what they did.  Now, they seem to be a "lock" to not only repeat as division champions; many expect them to win the next World Series, after adding the huge bat (and body) of Prince Fielder to their lineup.  We'll see.

I think 2012 will continue the trend of unpredictability; at least to a certain degree.  Here's what I foresee:

NO REPEAT DIVISION CHAMPIONS - That's right.  The American League East no longer belongs to the Yankees; same goes with the American League West, as Texas stumbles in 2012, still hung-over from their World Series disaster at the hands of St Louis.  Even the Tigers will take a step back in 2012; unable to fit the newly acquired Prince Fielder into the mix.  Moving Miguel Cabrera to third base will be the biggest disaster to hit Detroit since the Ford Pinto.

In the National League, five-time defending champion Philadelphia will find much more competition in the East; more than they can handle.  The Central champs - the Milwaukee Brewers, will fade into obscurity after losing Fielder to the Tigers; even with Ryan Braun winning his appeal and not facing that 50 game suspension; their pitching, which looked shaky in the '11 post season, will be even shakier in 2012.  Alas, in the West, the Diamondbacks will fail to repeat their 2011 magic, although they will put up a good fight until the very end.

AND THE WINNERS ARE...


AL - EAST:  Boston - Pitching will improve; offense still very good
AL - CENTRAL:  Cleveland - The magic will be back at Progressive Field
AL - WEST:  LA/Anaheim - Relaxed Pujols will have a monster year
WILD CARD:  Texas - Yu Darvish will solidify the pitching staff
WILD CARD #2:  Tampa Bay - Enough pitching and timely hitting to sneak in again


NL - EAST:  Atlanta - Healthy rotation and a great bullpen spells relief
NL - CENTRAL:  St Louis - Albert will be missed; but lineup will stay healthy and be productive
NL - WEST:  LA - Kershaw and Kemp will continue the momentum from last year
WILD CARD:  Washington - Strasburg emerges as baseball's new best pitcher
WILD CARD #2:  Arizona - Still good enough to sneak in

Who will win it all in 2012?  I'll let you know at the end of September.  However, if my prognostication is as accurate as the vast number of last year's experts, the ultimate World Series champion will no doubt come from the other twenty teams not included here...That's baseball; always giving us surprises every year!